---
title: "WMO: 2026 could be one of the four hottest years on record — temperature, oceans, and sea levels breaking records"
description: "According to the WMO and Copernicus, 2026 could be one of the four hottest years in history: from January to September, the temperature was 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, with record-breaking ocean and sea levels."
date: 2026-11-09T09:22:47.652Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/2026-could-be-among-the-hottest-years
tags: [climate-change, wmo, global-warming, el-nino, paris-agreement, ocean-temperature]
author: "Alexander Buran"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# WMO: 2026 could be one of the four hottest years on record — temperature, oceans, and sea levels breaking records

![A climatologist analyzes global temperature data on a computer monitor in a weather center](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/09/2026-god-mozhet-stat-odnim-iz-samyh-zharkikh-v-istorii/2026-god-mozhet-stat-odnim-iz-samyh-zharkikh-v-istorii-1.webp)

## Key Points

- From January to September 2026, the average global temperature was 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels; the last 12 years are the 12 warmest on record.
- Copernicus forecasts 2026 will almost certainly be the second year after 2024 to cross the 1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement.
- Oceans are accumulating heat, exceeding 2025 records, and the global mean sea level has reached a new peak.
- Data was released ahead of climate talks in Turkey (Nov 9–20, 2026); October 2026 was the warmest on record.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the European Union’s climate service, Copernicus, have released updated data on the state of the global climate, confirming a persistent trend of heat accumulation in Earth’s ecosystems. According to the WMO, from January to September 2026, the average global temperature was 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All of the last 12 years, including the current year 2026, rank among the 12 warmest years since records began around 1850. The data was presented ahead of the next round of international climate talks, held in Turkey from November 9 to 20.

### The 1.5-degree threshold: what the forecasts say

The Copernicus Climate Change Service forecasts that 2026 is almost certain to be the second calendar year after 2024 where the average temperature exceeds the 1.5-degree mark compared to pre-industrial levels. This specific threshold was established in the 2015 Paris Agreement as a benchmark that parties aim not to exceed. In the remaining months, the indicator could rise even further due to the powerful El Niño phenomenon, which experts estimate is on track to be one of the strongest in modern history.

### Oceans are accumulating heat, sea levels are breaking records

The consequences of warming are manifesting beyond just air temperature. According to the WMO, the oceans continue to accumulate heat, and their temperatures in 2026 exceeded the record highs of 2025. The global mean sea level has also reached a new maximum—this is driven by the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, as well as the thermal expansion of seawater as it heats up. WMO Head of Climate Information, John Kennedy, noted that all major climate indicators point to a single trend: the heat accumulated via greenhouse gases is simultaneously impacting the oceans, the atmosphere, ice cover, and sea levels.

### Energy imbalance and CO2 growth

Additional data points to an acceleration of these processes. The imbalance between the energy coming from the Sun and the energy leaving the planet has reached its highest level on record: during the 2001–2025 period, it increased at a rate of 0.3 watts per square meter per decade, whereas in previous decades the figure was 0.13 watts per square meter. Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, according to data cited in the report, has grown from 356.42 parts per million (ppm) in 1992 to 426.8 ppm in 2025. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that the planet has entered a new era of extreme climate events.

### Local signals: from August to October

Individual monthly indicators confirm the overall picture. According to Copernicus, August 2026 was one of the hottest months on record, with the global temperature exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.65 degrees Celsius. October 2026, in turn, became the warmest on record, and sea surface temperatures broke records for the month. At the end of October, Ukrainian polar scientists at the Akademik Vernadsky station recorded a record air temperature for the month—+11.1°C, with the air heating up by almost 10 degrees in just two and a half hours.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [2026 может войти в четверку самых жарких за всю историю наблюдений, - отчет ООН](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/2026-rik-mozhe-uviyti-chetvirki-nayspekotnishih-1794215789.html) - Source: 1.47°C above pre-industrial level for Jan-Sep 2026, top 12 warmest years, Copernicus 1.5°C threshold forecast, ocean and sea level records, John Kennedy quote, Turkey talks Nov 9–20, +11.1°C at Akademik Vernadsky station, record October.
- [2026 год может стать одним из самых теплых в истории, заявили в ВМО](https://news.rambler.ru/tech/57381061-2026-god-mozhet-stat-odnim-iz-samyh-teplyh-v-istorii-zayavili-v-vmo/) - Confirms 1.47°C, sea temp and sea level records; adds Guterres statement, energy imbalance 0.3 W/m² per decade (2001–2025) vs 0.13 previously, CO2 rise from 356.42 ppm (1992) to 426.8 ppm (2025).
- [Август 2026 года стал одним из самых жарких месяцев в истории. Причина](https://www.rbc.ru/life/news/6aa26e235c2acd6988c98a95) - Confirms that in August 2026, global temperature exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.65°C according to Copernicus.
- [Август 2026 года стал одним из самых жарких месяцев за всю историю наблюдений](https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/ru/news/20260911de49626/) - Confirms the EU climate monitoring body assessment that August 2026 was one of the hottest months on record.

## FAQ

### How much higher than pre-industrial levels was the temperature in 2026?

According to the WMO, from January to September 2026, the average global temperature was 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

### Will 2026 be the hottest year in history?

The WMO and Copernicus indicate 2026 could be among the four hottest years in history and will almost certainly be the second calendar year after 2024 to exceed the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold.

### What is happening to the oceans and sea levels?

Oceans continue to accumulate heat, exceeding 2025 records, while the global mean sea level has hit a new high due to melting glaciers and thermal expansion.

### When was this data released?

The data was presented ahead of the climate negotiations in Turkey, taking place from November 9 to 20, 2026.