--- title: "Apple Forecast: Growers Expect Prices to Drop by 20%, but Experts Warn of Risks" description: "🍏 Growers forecast a drop in apple prices in Ukraine by 11–20% next season due to increased harvest. However, experts warn: if producers start an aggressive sale, prices may not fall. Exports to Central Asian countries will help absorb the surplus. #apples #market #forecast #Ukraine" date: 2026-08-06T09:20:01.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/apple-forecast-growers-expect-prices-to-drop-by-20-but-experts-warn-of-risks tags: [ukraine-economy, apple-market, food-prices, agriculture, export] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Apple Forecast: Growers Expect Prices to Drop by 20%, but Experts Warn of Risks ![Apple harvesting in the orchard: growers expect a 20% price drop, but experts warn of risks](https://xab.info/media/2026/08/06/yablochnyy-prognoz-sadovody-ozhidayut-padeniya-tsen-na-20-no-eksperty-preduprezhdayut-o-riskakh/yablochnyy-prognoz-sadovody-ozhidayut-padeniya-tsen-na-20-no-eksperty-preduprezhdayut-o-riskakh-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - The EastFruit survey shows that 25% of market participants expect apple prices to fall by 11–20% in 2027. - FAO economist Andriy Yarmak noted anomalously high apple prices in the current season — 25% higher than after storage. - Exports to Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan may help absorb the excess supply of apples in Ukraine. - An aggressive sale of the harvest may not lead to a price drop in the second half of the season. Apples remain one of the most popular and traditional fruits on the Ukrainian table. However, for producers and consumers, the question remains relevant: how accessible will this product be next season? Market analysts and economists have shared forecasts which, despite a generally optimistic trend, contain important nuances. ## Cautious optimism of market participants According to the results of a survey conducted by the EastFruit project among participants in the apple market, expectations regarding wholesale prices for fresh apples in Ukraine for the period from January to May 2027 can be characterized as "predominantly cautious". The majority of respondents who gave a specific forecast lean towards a decrease in cost. The most common scenario is a price drop of 11–20%. This scenario was chosen by 25% of the survey participants. This is due to expectations of a significant increase in the harvest in 2026, which, according to market laws, should lead to a cheaper product. ## Economic paradox of the current season Andriy Yarmak, an economist from the investment department of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), drew attention to the non-standard situation that has arisen in the current season. According to him, apple prices turned out to be "unexpectedly high" for Ukrainian producers. Yarmak explained this phenomenon by the fact that the actual cost of apples during the harvest was at least 25% higher than the price after long-term storage. Usually, the opposite trend is observed: fresh harvest is cheaper, and winter storage adds logistics and warehouse costs to the price. However, this year demand and market conditions have formed a different picture. ## Factors influencing pricing Despite the forecasts of price reductions, EastFruit experts warn of risks. If producers this year begin to "aggressively" sell the harvest immediately after collection, it is not excluded that prices in the second half of the season (January — June 2027) will not fall below the level of the same period of the current year. Furthermore, Andriy Yarmak emphasized that prices will be pressured by many other factors, in addition to the volume of the harvest. This may include logistics costs, fuel prices, and the general inflationary situation in the country. ## Export prospects: salvation from overproduction One of the key factors that can mitigate the consequences of possible apple overproduction in Ukraine will be exports. Experts forecast that part of the excess supply may be absorbed by the markets of Central Asia and the Caucasus. In Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, a noticeable decrease in their own apple harvest is expected, which will create favorable demand for imported products from Ukraine. This opens additional opportunities for Ukrainian growers to sell goods abroad, supporting the domestic market. ### Contradictory data There is a certain discrepancy in expectations in the forecasts of experts and market participants. On the one hand, EastFruit analysts and most growers forecast a price drop of 11–20% due to increased yield. On the other hand, FAO economist Andriy Yarmak points to anomalously high prices in the current season and warns that an aggressive sale of the harvest may not lead to the desired price drop in the future. Thus, the market is waiting: either a price drop will become an inevitable consequence of the abundance of fruit, or high prices will be maintained thanks to export channels and sales specifics. ## Conclusions for consumers Thus, Ukrainians should expect more affordable apples next season, however, the degree of this decrease will depend on the actions of producers during the harvest period and the success of exports to Central Asian countries. If growers can effectively diversify sales, the domestic market may receive a quality and inexpensive product. ## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification - [Садоводы заявили о снижении цен на яблоки в новом сезоне - Gazeta.ua](https://gazeta.ua) - [Садоводы прогнозируют снижение цен на яблоки до 20%: что ждет рынок в новом сезоне - Delo.ua](https://delo.ua) - [Топливо по цене около 100 гривен, доллар от 45 и новый рост цен: что ждет украинцев в августе - 24 Канал](https://24tv.ua) - [Садоводы прогнозируют снижение цен на яблоки до 20%: что ждет рынок в новом сезоне - UKR.NET](https://www.ukr.net) ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: Why might apple prices drop next season? **A:** A significant increase in the apple harvest in Ukraine is expected in 2026, which, according to market laws, should lead to a decrease in wholesale prices. ### Q: Which countries could become buyers of Ukrainian apples? **A:** Experts forecast that part of the excess supply may be absorbed by the markets of Central Asia and the Caucasus — Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, where a decrease in their own harvest is expected. ### Q: Why were apple prices high in the current season? **A:** FAO economist Andriy Yarmak noted that during the harvest, apples were sold at least 25% more expensive than after long-term storage, which is an anomaly for the market. ### Q: Can the price of apples not fall next season? **A:** Yes, if producers start an aggressive sale of the harvest immediately after collection, prices in the second half of the season may not fall below the level of the current year.