---
title: "Autumn Mobilization in Russia: CDD Forecasts Conscription of 500,000 People"
description: "The CDD under Ukraine's NSDC reported on Russia's plans to conduct an autumn mobilization of 500,000 people. Some conscripts will be sent to the front within two weeks, while the rest will undergo a month of training. Moscow has not officially confirmed these plans yet. 🇷🇺📉"
date: 2026-07-18T11:08:50.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/autumn-mobilization-in-russia-cdd-forecasts-conscription-of-500000-people
tags: [russia, mobilization, andrey-kovalenko, snbo, ukraine]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Autumn Mobilization in Russia: CDD Forecasts Conscription of 500,000 People

![Portrait of a man discussing the autumn mobilization in Russia and CPD's forecast of 500,000 conscripts](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/18/osenjnaya-mobilizatsiya-v-rf-tsppd-prognozirovet-prizyv-500-tysyach-chelovek/osenjnaya-mobilizatsiya-v-rf-tsppd-prognozirovet-prizyv-500-tysyach-chelovek-1.webp)

Ukrainian intelligence agencies have detected preparations for a large-scale mobilization campaign in the Russian Federation. According to the Center for Countering Disinformation (CDD) under the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, the Russian leadership plans to conscript up to 500,000 people this autumn. The head of the agency, Andriy Kovalenko, stated that this measure is necessary to replenish losses on the eastern front and to create reserves for potential offensive operations during the autumn-winter period.

### Strategy for Personnel Distribution

According to published data, the strategic concept of the Russian military command involves dividing the mobilized resources into two functional groups with different tasks and training periods:

- **Operational Reinforcement:** The first group of conscripts is planned to be sent to the combat zone within 14 days after mobilization. The goal is to quickly close the manpower deficit on the front line.

- **Formation of Strike Formations:** The remaining personnel will be sent for an accelerated training course lasting about a month. These forces will create a reserve for the potential opening of new front sectors.

### Analysis of Training Effectiveness

Ukrainian military analysts note that a two-week training cycle in the conditions of the modern conflict, characterized by the mass use of unmanned aerial vehicles and guided aerial bombs, does not allow for the formation of qualified fighters. Nevertheless, such plans indicate the readiness of the Russian command for prolonged infantry battles and the use of human resources as the main factor of pressure.

### Infrastructure and Legal Aspects

At present, official regulatory acts regarding the launch of a new wave of open mobilization in Russia have not been published. However, the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reports that the technical and organizational deployment of infrastructure for conducting such events in Russia has already been completed.

Experts link the possible transition from covert mobilization — through contracts and the use of special contingents — to coercive measures with the gradual exhaustion of internal financial and personnel resources. Forecasts regarding the scale and timing are based on operational intelligence data. Official state bodies of the Russian Federation have not yet commented on the preparation of the aforementioned events.