---
title: "Cartel Collapse: Iraq Threatens to Quit OPEC, Worsening the 2026 Oil Crisis"
description: "Iraq threatens to leave OPEC due to production quotas and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz 🛢️📉. Following the UAE, Baghdad demands a revision of the rules, threatening to crash oil prices. Is the cartel on the verge of collapse? ⚠️"
date: 2026-06-25T22:24:25.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/cartel-collapse-iraq-threatens-to-quit-opec-worsening-the-2026-oil-crisis
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Cartel Collapse: Iraq Threatens to Quit OPEC, Worsening the 2026 Oil Crisis

![Oil flares and workers at an Iraqi oilfield: symbol of OPEC crisis 2026](https://xab.info/media/2026/06/25/irak-ugrozhaet-vyhodom-iz-opek-neftyanoy-krizis-2026/irak-ugrozhaet-vyhodom-iz-opek-neftyanoy-krizis-2026-1.webp)

In June 2026, the structure of the global energy market faced an unprecedented challenge. Iraq, the second-largest oil power within OPEC, officially warned of a potential withdrawal from the organization. This move was a direct consequence of strict production quotas, which Baghdad considers unacceptable against the backdrop of a severe financial crisis.

### Strait of Hormuz Deadlock and Budgetary Collapse

The reason for Iraq's ultimatum lies in a combination of geopolitical and economic factors. Large-scale military actions and blockades in the Strait of Hormuz have paralyzed the maritime export of Iraqi oil. The country has lost billions of dollars in revenue, pushing the state budget to the brink of collapse.

Under these conditions, Baghdad is demanding that the cartel revise the rules of the game. Iraqi officials insist on a sharp increase in their individual quota to compensate for losses from the export halt. However, current OPEC+ restrictions do not account for the country's critical financial situation. Iraqi authorities have clearly stated their position: if the cartel does not make concessions, the country will choose the path of protecting national interests outside the organization.

### The Domino Effect: Repeating the UAE Scenario

The situation looks critical for the cartel, as Iraq is following in the footsteps of the United Arab Emirates. Previously, Abu Dhabi officially left OPEC for similar reasons—due to Saudi Arabia's unwillingness to increase quotas for the Emirates, which had invested billions in expanding their production capacity.

The loss of two key players at once—the UAE and Iraq—effectively deprives the organization of the ability to strictly control global raw material supply. Iraq is the second-largest oil producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia. The exit of such giants destroys the production coordination mechanism and intensifies political disagreements within the alliance.

### Consequences for the Global Market

Experts predict serious upheavals against the backdrop of the OPEC split. Iraq's exit will free its hands for uncontrolled production. Increasing supplies from Iraq and the UAE in the absence of a unified strategy will inevitably lead to a surplus of raw materials on the market.

Leading analysts warn: the loss of control by the cartel will intensify chaos on the exchanges and could trigger a sharp drop in global Brent oil prices in the coming months. The global economy is preparing for a new phase of instability, where old mechanisms for regulating supply and demand cease to function.