---
title: "CBAM Will Cost Ukraine Billions: GMK Center Updates GDP and Export Loss Estimates Through 2030"
description: "GMK Center estimates Ukraine's GDP losses from CBAM at $372 million in 2026, rising to $1.754 billion by 2030; export losses could reach $7.248 billion. NAEIU is pushing for a special regime for Ukraine for the period of the war."
date: 2026-08-26T10:34:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/cbam-cost-to-ukraine-gmk-center-gdp-export-losses-2030
tags: [cbam, ukraine-economy, metallurgy, eu-trade, decarbonization, export]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# CBAM Will Cost Ukraine Billions: GMK Center Updates GDP and Export Loss Estimates Through 2030

![Businesswoman in a white shirt illustrating GMK Center's updated analysis of Ukraine's GDP and export losses from SWAM through 2030](https://xab.info/media/2026/08/26/cbam-svam-poteri-ukrainy-gmk-center-2030/cbam-svam-poteri-ukrainy-gmk-center-2030-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- Ukraine's GDP losses from CBAM: ~$372 million in 2026 and up to $1.754 billion by 2030, according to GMK Center
- Export losses will grow from $1.431 billion in 2026 to $7.248 billion by 2030
- Metallurgy risks losing ~$1.6 billion by 2030, with the main impact on rolled products ($899 million)
- NAEIU is demanding a special regime for Ukraine for the period of the war and post-war stabilization, which the European Commission has not provided for

The introduction of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is turning into one of the most significant economic challenges for Ukraine over the coming decade. According to updated estimates by the GMK Center analytical center, presented at the meeting “CBAM and Industrial Decarbonization: Practical Issues and International Opportunities,” Ukraine's GDP losses from the carbon levy could reach approximately $372 million as early as 2026 and grow to $1.754 billion by 2030. Analysts describe the export losses as even more substantial: if in the current year, 2026, they are estimated at $1.431 billion, then by 2030 this figure is projected by GMK Center to reach $7.248 billion. In addition, by 2030 Ukraine risks losing approximately $1.348 billion in tax revenues and forfeiting potential investments worth over $1 billion.

### Metallurgy at the Epicenter: Sector-by-Sector Risk Breakdown

GMK Center separately highlighted the risks for the metallurgical complex, which has traditionally been one of the country's key export sectors. By 2030, the industry's potential losses from CBAM could amount to approximately $1.6 billion. The hardest hit, according to forecasts, will be the rolled products segment — $899 million. Losses for steel semi-finished products are estimated at around $558 million, for pig iron — $96 million, and for pipes — $39 million. As industry experts emphasize, the core of the problem lies not so much in the carbon payment itself as in its systemic effect: rising production costs and declining competitiveness of Ukrainian products lead to the loss of export markets, capital outflows, and a shrinking tax base.

### Searching for Solutions: Compensation Mechanisms and a Special Regime

Ksenia Orinchak, Executive Director of the National Association of Extractive Industry of Ukraine (NAEIU), speaking at the industry meeting, noted that the key issue today is agreeing on a special regime for Ukraine for the period of the war and post-war stabilization. Among the tools under discussion, she mentioned a mechanism under which funds paid by Ukrainian companies under CBAM would be directed directly toward production modernization — in particular, toward purchasing European equipment and technologies for decarbonization. A separate Ukrainian mechanism is also being considered: a voluntary carbon payment at the border, with subsequent reimbursement to producers to finance decarbonization projects. Without such a regime, according to Orinchak, CBAM risks becoming not only a decarbonization tool but also an additional factor in Ukraine's deindustrialization.

### Context: How CBAM Came into Force in Ukraine and Why There Is No Exemption

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism came into force in Ukraine on January 1, 2026. It is a carbon levy on imports into the EU of goods such as steel, cement, fertilizers, electricity, aluminum, and hydrogen. Industry experts and analysts have repeatedly warned of the negative consequences of CBAM's implementation for the country's industry and economy as a whole. At the same time, as noted by NAEIU, the European Commission did not provide Ukraine with an exemption from the mechanism, even though the country formally has the right to one due to force majeure circumstances — a full-scale war. This is precisely why, according to Orinchak, the European Commission's position and the parties' readiness to agree on a special regime remain the central issue in the negotiations.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [Expert Names Ukraine's Annual GDP Losses from CBAM](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/ekspert-nazvala-vtrati-vvp-ukrayini-shchoroku-1787740338.html) - Первичный источник заявления К. Оринчак (НАДПУ) и обновлённых оценок GMK Center по ВВП, экспорту, налогам и инвестициям.
- [CBAM Carbon Levy Will Cost Ukraine Over $7 Billion in Export Losses by 2030, Says GMK Center](https://www.unian.net/economics/other/ekosbor-cbam-oboydetsya-ukraine-poterey-bolee-7-mlrd-eksporta-do-2030-goda-gmk-center-13481001.html) - Совпадает с оценкой потерь экспорта в 7,248 млрд долларов к 2030 году.
- [Full Launch of CBAM Could Cost Ukraine Up to $1.44 Billion Annually, Says NAEIU](https://www.unian.net/economics/other/polnocennyy-zapusk-cbam-mozhet-stoit-ukraine-do-1-44-mlrd-ezhegodno-nadpu-13259661.html) - Совпадает с оценкой потерь экспорта в 7,248 млрд долларов к 2030 году.
- [European Commission Acknowledges Error in CBAM Calculations for Ukraine, Says Kachka](https://www.obozrevatel.com/ekonomika-glavnaya/evrokomissiya-priznala-oshibku-v-raschetah-cbam-dlya-ukrainyi-kachka.htm) - Тема «ошибки в расчётах» не раскрыта в базовом тексте; не включена в статью во избежание подмены фактов из внутренней памяти.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: How much could Ukraine lose from CBAM by 2030?
**A:** According to GMK Center's updated estimate, GDP losses will amount to approximately $1.754 billion, export losses up to $7.248 billion, foregone tax revenues around $1.348 billion, and lost investments over $1 billion.

### Q: Which sector of the economy will be hit hardest?
**A:** Metallurgy: by 2030 the industry's losses could reach approximately $1.6 billion, of which $899 million will fall on rolled products, $558 million on steel semi-finished products, $96 million on pig iron, and $39 million on pipes.

### Q: When did CBAM come into force in Ukraine?
**A:** The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has been in effect in Ukraine since January 1, 2026, and covers imports into the EU of steel, cement, fertilizers, electricity, aluminum, and hydrogen.

### Q: Why did Ukraine not receive an exemption from CBAM?
**A:** According to Ksenia Orinchak, Executive Director of NAEIU, the European Commission did not provide an exemption for Ukraine, even though the country has the right to one due to force majeure circumstances — a full-scale war. The key issue remains agreeing on a special regime for the period of the war and post-war stabilization.