---
title: "By 2035: China and Russia could increase hypersonic missile arsenals to 5,000 units — IISS forecast"
description: "🚀 By 2035, China and Russia could increase hypersonic missile arsenals to 5,000 units — that is the IISS forecast. 🇺🇸 The US is already reacting by ramping up the production of interceptors and cruise missiles. #Hypersonic #Defense #Geopolitics"
date: 2026-07-14T13:37:15.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/china-and-russia-could-increase-hypersonic-missile-arsenals-to-5000-units-iiss-forecast
tags: [china, russia, hypersonic-missiles, pentagon, iiis]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# By 2035: China and Russia could increase hypersonic missile arsenals to 5,000 units — IISS forecast

![Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at a meeting symbolizing the strategic partnership between Russia and China in the context of IISS forecast on hypersonic missile growth to 5,000 units by 2035](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/14/kitay-i-rossiya-mogut-uvelicit-arsenal-giperzvukovykh-raket-do-5-tysyach/kitay-i-rossiya-mogut-uvelicit-arsenal-giperzvukovykh-raket-do-5-tysyach-1.webp)

According to a new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), based on US intelligence assessments, China and Russia could significantly increase their stockpiles of hypersonic weapons over the next nine years. By 2035, Beijing could possess an arsenal of approximately 4,000 hypersonic missiles, while Moscow could have around 1,000.

### Current status and growth forecasts

Currently, according to analysts, China possesses around 600 hypersonic missiles, while Russia's arsenal is estimated to be in the range of 200 to 300 units. Russian armaments already include the 3M22 "Zircon", Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal", and "Avangard" systems.

Forecasts for 2035 indicate a significant increase in these figures. It is expected that the number of Chinese hypersonic missiles, including prospective DF-27 systems, will reach 4,000. The Russian arsenal, according to calculations, could increase to 1,000 units.

### Long-range weaponry and other missile classes

The report also addresses the prospects for the development of long-range "air-to-air" missiles. Currently, Russia is estimated to have between 300 and 600 such missiles, likely including the R-33 and R-37M. China may possess around 1,000 units of this class.

By 2035, it is forecasted that the number of long-range "air-to-air" missiles in Russia will rise to 1,000, and in China — to 5,000.

In addition to hypersonic and long-range systems, analysts predict an expansion of other weapon categories in China:

    - Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles: growth from 400 to 700 units.

    - Submarine-launched ballistic missiles: increase from 72 to 132 units.

    - Air- and sea-launched cruise missiles: growth from the current 1,000 to 5,000. They are planned for use on surface ships, submarines, and H-6 strategic bombers.

### Accuracy of forecasts and US reaction

IISS emphasizes that long-term intelligence assessments do not always come true and are often based on worst-case scenarios. As an example, the 1998 Rumsfeld Commission is cited, which incorrectly predicted that Iran and North Korea would develop intercontinental ballistic missiles within five years.

Nevertheless, this data is already influencing US defense planning. In February 2026, the Pentagon signed an agreement with RTX to increase production of SM-3 Block IIA and SM-3 Block IB interceptor missiles. Furthermore, the US Department of Defense plans to acquire in the coming years:

    - Up to 10,000 land-based cruise missiles.

    - 4,300 air-launched cruise missiles.

    - Up to 12,000 inexpensive "Black Braid" hypersonic missiles.

Against the backdrop of these forecasts, the development of space programs should also be noted. The Chinese reusable spaceplane Shenlong, one of Beijing's most secretive programs, recently placed an unidentified object into low Earth orbit. Experts suggest this could be a miniature reconnaissance satellite, however, Chinese authorities traditionally do not disclose mission details or the purpose of the spacecraft.