--- title: "Collapse of Illusions: Head Economist of VEB.RF Admits Russia's Defeat in the 'War of Attrition' and Predicts a Social Crisis" description: "🚨 The Chief Economist of VEB.RF, Andrey Klepach, admitted that Russia is losing the war of attrition to Ukraine. According to him, the Russian economy is in recession in 2026, and hopes for Ukraine's collapse were unfounded. The expert warned of an impending \"social crisis\" and compared the situation to 1917. 📉💸" date: 2026-08-15T21:26:00.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/collapse-of-illusions-veb-economist-admits-russia-defeat-war-attrition-en tags: [russia-economy, ukraine-war, veb-rf, andrey-klepach, sanctions, economic-crisis] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Collapse of Illusions: Head Economist of VEB.RF Admits Russia's Defeat in the 'War of Attrition' and Predicts a Social Crisis ![Shoppers in a Russian supermarket examine prices on vegetables and mushrooms, illustrating the rising cost of living and social crisis predicted by VEB.RF's chief economist](https://xab.info/media/2026/08/16/krah-illyuziy-ekonomist-veb-priznal-proigrysh-rossii-v-voine-na-istoschenie/krah-illyuziy-ekonomist-veb-priznal-proigrysh-rossii-v-voine-na-istoschenie-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - Andrey Klepach stated that Russia is losing the economic and technological competition to Ukraine. - The Russian economy shifted to a decline in 2026 after the upswing of 2023-2024. - The expert predicted a social crisis in the Russian Federation, comparing the situation to 1917. - Rising costs and falling investments are exacerbated by the tight policy of the Central Bank of Russia. In August 2026, a moment of unprecedented candor occurred within the Russian economic elite. Andrey Klepach, the chief economist of the state-owned VEB.RF, speaking at a session of the Nikitsky Club, publicly admitted that Russia is losing the global economic and technological confrontation. Moreover, he stated that in several aspects, the Russian economy is lagging behind even Ukraine, despite the colossal destruction inflicted on Ukrainian infrastructure. ### Admission of Defeat in the War of Attrition Klepach dispelled the popular Kremlin illusion that the Ukrainian economy would collapse under the pressure of war. According to him, hopes for the collapse of the enemy's economy were not justified: "It did not collapse and will not collapse." The expert emphasized that Russia cannot win the economic confrontation as long as the West continues to support Ukraine. Sanctions, the Western blockade, and constant strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian infrastructure — ports, chemical plants, and oil refineries — are leading to rising costs for the Russian economy and falling efficiency. ### Technological Lag and Recession in Civilian Sectors According to the economist's estimates, after a short-term upswing in 2023–2024, the Russian economy shifted to a phase of decline in 2026. Klepach pointed to a sharp reduction in investments and the onset of recession in civilian industrial sectors. Aviation manufacturing, construction materials production, and the light and food industries have fallen into the risk zone. Russia is losing the technological race not only to the US and China but also to Ukraine, which, despite demographic problems, continues to function thanks to financial support from partners. ### Financial Deadlock and the Role of the Central Bank An important factor in the crisis, according to Klepach, was the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The economist believes that the regulator is responsible for at least half of the current downturn. Major state banks, such as Sberbank and VTB, are recording a deterioration in the quality of their loan portfolios. Problems have also affected the marketplace sector: Wildberries clients are increasingly seeking debt restructuring. An additional blow was the fuel shortage due to strikes on refineries, forcing Russia to start importing gasoline from India. ### Forecast of a Social Crisis Andrey Klepach warned that the combination of economic problems will lead Russia to a "social crisis," which could occur suddenly. He drew a parallel with the events of 1917, noting that the February Revolution also came as a surprise to many. Although the economist does not predict the total collapse of the state, he is certain: "Economically, we will not collapse, but our lag will grow with all the ensuing consequences". ## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification - [In Russia, they publicly spoke about defeat in the "war of attrition" with Ukraine](https://korrespondent.net/world/russia/4903238/) - Подтверждает основные тезисы о признании проигрыша и цитаты Клепача. - [In Russia, the alarm was sounded: a Kremlin economist warned of a crisis and admitted defeat to Ukraine](https://tsn.ua/ru/svit/v-rossii-zabili-trevogu-kremlevskiy-ekonomist-predupredil-o-krizise-i-priznal-proigrysh-ukraine-3149474.html) - Детализирует информацию о рецессии гражданских отраслей и сравнении с 1917 годом. - [The Chief Economist of VEB predicted Russia's defeat in the "war of attrition" and inevitable ...](https://torontovka.com/news/russia/2026-08-15/glavnyy-ekonomist-veb-predskazal-porazhenie-rossii-v-voyne-na-istoschenie-171070) - Подтверждает данные о проблемах банковского сектора и импорте бензина. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: Who made the statement about Russia's defeat in the economic war? **A:** The statement was made by Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist of VEB.RF, at a session of the Nikitsky Club. ### Q: Why, according to Klepach, is Russia losing to Ukraine? **A:** The economist claims that the Russian economy is facing rising costs, falling investments, and technological lag, while the Ukrainian economy continues to function thanks to Western support. ### Q: Which industries in Russia are in recession? **A:** Civilian sectors have fallen into recession: the aviation industry, construction materials production, and the light and food industries. ### Q: What does Andrey Klepach predict for the future? **A:** He forecasts a growing lag for Russia and a possible "social crisis," comparing the situation to the events of 1917.