---
title: "Gas Export Ban Cost Ukraine Up to 6 Billion Cubic Meters of Production: Expert Calls for Controlled Sale of Surplus"
description: "Volodymyr Omelchenko from the Razumkov Centre estimated Ukraine's gas production losses due to the export ban at about 6 billion cubic meters over 4.5 years and called for a controlled sale of the surplus via the exchange."
date: 2026-08-21T15:40:03.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/controlled-gas-export-ukraine-private-production-en
tags: [ukraine-gas, gas-export, naftogaz, energy-market, private-extraction]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Gas Export Ban Cost Ukraine Up to 6 Billion Cubic Meters of Production: Expert Calls for Controlled Sale of Surplus

![Gas pipelines and gas preparation equipment at a field: the export ban cost Ukraine up to 6 billion cubic meters of production](https://xab.info/media/2026/08/22/kontroluyovanyy-eksport-gazu-ukraina-privatna-dobycha/kontroluyovanyy-eksport-gazu-ukraina-privatna-dobycha-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- The ban on gas exports since 2022 narrowed the sales market and weakened the incentives for private companies to invest in production.
- An expert from the Razumkov Centre estimated potential production losses at about 6 billion cubic meters over 4.5 years.
- Omelchenko advocates for an open gas market based on the energy model: sell when there is a surplus, import when there is a deficit.
- A draft resolution on controlled exports has appeared, with a limit of no more than 15% of the previous month's production via exchange trading.

The Ukrainian gas market continues to operate under conditions established at the beginning of the full-scale invasion: with zero export quotas for gas of Ukrainian origin. According to Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre, this ban has become one of the key factors that weakened the incentives for private gas extraction companies to invest in new wells and increase production. The expert stated this on the EnergyBusiness YouTube channel, as reported by RBC-Ukraine and "Obozrevatel" citing his words.

### Export Ban and Shrinking Sales Market

Before 2022, the private sector was actively increasing production: in some years, total output approached 5 billion cubic meters per year. However, after the war began, domestic consumption dropped sharply, and the remaining industrial market, according to Omelchenko, was partially captured by "Naftogaz". As a result, private companies saw their sales market shrink and lost the motivation to invest in new extraction. "Consumption dropped. The remaining industrial market was partially captured by 'Naftogaz'. And as a result, they were forced to reduce production. First, private companies. And there was no point in investing any money," the expert noted.

### Estimate of Losses: About 6 Billion Cubic Meters

According to Omelchenko's calculations, over the last 4.5 years, Ukraine could have missed out on approximately 6 billion cubic meters of gas precisely due to the reduction in production by the private sector. The expert emphasizes that a significant portion of this volume could have been sold abroad: "And if we had exported these 6 billion, then not 6, but at least half of what we lost. These are huge amounts of money that could also have been invested in extraction and further increased." Thus, a controlled sale of the surplus, according to his logic, would have provided the industry with additional funds for development and infrastructure modernization.

### Open Market Model Tied to Balance

Omelchenko advocates for a model oriented towards the real gas balance in the country: if there is enough resource, the surplus is sold abroad; if there is a deficit, it is imported. "Therefore, I am generally inclined to have our gas market be as open as the electricity market. That is, when we have a need, we buy; when there is a surplus, we sell," the expert summarized. In his opinion, such an approach would remove artificial restrictions and return market incentives to the industry.

### New Resolution Draft: Controlled Export

Recall that the Cabinet of Ministers introduced zero quotas for the export of natural gas of Ukrainian origin at the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022. However, a draft government resolution has recently appeared, providing for a controlled mechanism for opening exports: the monthly limit should not exceed 15% of the actual production of the previous month. Gas is proposed to be sold only through specialized exchange trading, and only approved companies will be able to export after obtaining a license. Previously, the head of the Verkhovna Rada subcommittee on energy saving and energy efficiency, Serhiy Nahorniak, stated that Ukraine could consider partial export of privately produced gas, but the decision must take into account the interests of the domestic market and the need for companies to maintain the economics of extraction.

### Contradictory Data

It is important to distinguish between confirmed facts and expert assessments here. The zero export quotas of 2022 and the fact of the appearance of a draft resolution on a 15% limit are fixed documents and decisions. However, the figure of "about 6 billion cubic meters" of gas missed over 4.5 years is an estimate by one expert (V. Omelchenko), not an independent statistical calculation or official audit, so it should be treated as a guideline rather than an exact indicator. Furthermore, the very idea of export is not consensual: proponents of protecting the domestic market (including S. Nahorniak) emphasize that any decision on exports must first guarantee domestic needs and the economics of extraction, rather than automatically opening the market. That is, there is a discrepancy between the position of "maximally open market" and the position of "export only with guaranteed coverage of domestic demand".

### Context and Significance for the Industry

The combination of these factors forms the current discussion around the Ukrainian gas market. On the one hand, the export ban performed a protective function in wartime conditions and falling domestic consumption. On the other hand — according to expert estimates — it deprived the private sector of a significant portion of potential income and investment incentives. The new draft resolution with an exchange mechanism and a 15% limit looks like an attempt to find a balance: allow the industry to monetize the surplus while maintaining control over volumes and priority of the domestic market. The final decision, as expected, will depend on the seasonal gas balance, the state of infrastructure, and the regulator's position regarding preparation for the winter period.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [Selling gas surplus abroad would give the industry resources for growth, - expert](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/prodazh-profitsitu-gazu-kordon-dav-bi-galuzi-1787326637.html) - Подтверждает заявление Омельченко о сужении рынка сбыта, потере мотивации инвестировать и оценке в 6 млрд кубометров за 4,5 года.
- [Controlled gas exports could help attract investment in new wells and ...](https://www.obozrevatel.com/ekonomika-glavnaya/kontroliruemyij-eksport-gaza-mozhet-sposobstvovat-privlecheniyu-investitsij-v-novyie-skvazhinyi-i-vosstanovlenie-infrastrukturyi-omelchenko.htm) - Подтверждает тезис о том, что контролируемый экспорт привлечёт инвестиции в новые скважины и восстановление инфраструктуры.
- [Limited gas exports will support production and help prepare for winter, - expert](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/obmezheniy-eksport-gazu-pidtrimae-vidobutok-1785760937.html) - Подтверждает заявление Омельченко о сужении рынка сбыта, потере мотивации инвестировать и оценке в 6 млрд кубометров за 4,5 года.
- [Preferential gas supply to electricity producers – this is the main problem for 'Naftogaz ...'](https://www.obozrevatel.com/ekonomika-glavnaya/economy/lgotnaya-postavka-gaza-proizvoditelyam-elektrichestva-eto-osnovnaya-problema-naftogaza-tsentr-razumkova.htm) - Подтверждает тезис о том, что контролируемый экспорт привлечёт инвестиции в новые скважины и восстановление инфраструктуры.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: Why did private gas extraction companies reduce production?
**A:** According to Volodymyr Omelchenko, after the drop in domestic consumption and the export ban, the sales market shrank, and the remaining industrial market was partially captured by "Naftogaz", causing private companies to lose the motivation to invest in new production.

### Q: How much gas could Ukraine have missed due to the export ban?
**A:** The expert estimates potential losses at about 6 billion cubic meters over the last 4.5 years. This is an expert estimate, not an independent statistical calculation.

### Q: What does the new draft resolution on gas export provide for?
**A:** The draft provides for controlled exports: a monthly limit of no more than 15% of the actual production of the previous month, sales only through specialized exchange trading, and export by approved companies after obtaining a license.

### Q: What market model does the expert adhere to?
**A:** Omelchenko advocates for an open gas market based on the energy model: sell the surplus when there is a surplus and import when there is a deficit.