---
title: "Critical shortage: why the West cannot keep up with the production rates of Russian ballistic missiles"
description: "The West faces a critical shortage of interceptor missiles: Russia produces more ballistic missiles than the US produces interception means. 🚀🛡️ Experts explain why Patriot and SAMP/T systems cannot cope with the pace of attacks and what barriers hinder supplies. 🇺🇦🇺🇸"
date: 2026-08-05T13:22:01.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/critical-shortage-west-cannot-keep-up-russian-ballistic-missiles
tags: [ukraine, russia, patriot, isander, air-defense]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Critical shortage: why the West cannot keep up with the production rates of Russian ballistic missiles

![Russian ballistic missile launch complex on a test range, showcasing power and readiness for launch](https://xab.info/media/2026/08/05/defitsit-protivoraket-rossiya-iskander-patriot/defitsit-protivoraket-rossiya-iskander-patriot-1.webp)

Ballistic missiles remain one of the most serious threats to Ukraine and Western countries. Today, only a handful of air defense systems are capable of intercepting these targets in the air, and their numbers are critically insufficient to repel mass attacks. Experts and military commentators are discussing a global crisis in missile defense that has arisen due to years of underestimating the threat by Western nations.

### The mathematics of war: missile production lags behind

The main problem lies not in the lack of technology, but in a plain shortage of armaments. As military expert Ivan Stupak notes, the West has been preoccupied with other issues for years, while Russia, Iran, and North Korea have systematically invested in the development of ballistic weaponry. Now, the consequences of this oversight have become obvious.

Military and political commentator Alexander Kovalenko provides shocking statistics demonstrating the gap in production rates between offensive and defensive armaments:

- Lockheed Martin produces about 700 PAC-3 missiles per year.

- Japanese Mitsubishi Heavy Industries produces an additional 70 PAC-3 missiles under license.

- Russia, however, produces more than a thousand 9M723 ballistic missiles for the Iskander-M OTRK annually.

To guarantee the interception of one ballistic missile, a minimum of two PAC-3 interceptor missiles is required. This means that to counter the annual production of Iskanders alone, about two thousand American interceptor missiles are needed. In reality, Kyiv sometimes does not even receive 70 interceptor missiles for a single night of a mass attack.

### Which air defense systems are actually working in Ukraine?

As of today, only two systems are capable of intercepting ballistic targets in Ukraine:

- The American Patriot complex with PAC-3 missiles.

- The Franco-Italian SAMP/T complex with the latest Aster B1NT missiles.

There are other powerful systems in the world, such as the American THAAD, the Israeli "David's Sling," and the naval Aegis system. However, according to Alexander Kovalenko, they are either unavailable to Ukraine or cannot be effectively used under current conditions. Obtaining THAAD, one of the most expensive and scarce systems in the world, seems practically impossible, as priority in supplies is given to traditional US allies.

### Legal barriers and lack of alternatives

Attempts to find alternative sources of supply run into strict legal restrictions. Japan, being a manufacturer of PAC-3 under license, does not have the right to independently transfer missiles to Ukraine without coordination with the US. Theoretically, a multi-stage re-export through third countries is possible, but such a mechanism has not yet been implemented.

South Korea is also not considered a real source of interceptor missiles. This is due to Seoul's export restrictions and the need to maintain its own stockpiles due to the constant threat from North Korea. Production of missiles for SAMP/T complexes is even slower than that of PAC-3, making the shortage a systemic problem for the entire world.

### Deterrence as part of the solution

In conditions where the number of defensive systems cannot keep up with the production rates of attacking missiles, the defense strategy is changing. Destroying launchers before the missile is launched becomes a critically important element of defense. This is why the development of Ukrainian long-range weapons and its own ballistic capabilities is considered one of the key elements of deterring Russian attacks.