---
title: "Currency Forecast for October: Dollar up to 45 Hryvnias and Euro Volatility"
description: "Experts forecast the dollar at 44.5–45 hryvnias and the euro at 51–52.5 hryvnias in October 2026. The dynamics are influenced by the situation in the Middle East and global energy market prices."
date: 2026-09-26T04:32:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/currency-forecast-october-2026
tags: [ukraine-economy, hryvnia, exchange-rate, central-bank]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Currency Forecast for October: Dollar up to 45 Hryvnias and Euro Volatility

![Currency exchange charts with dollar and euro banknotes](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/26/prognoz-kursa-valyut-oktyabr-2026/prognoz-kursa-valyut-oktyabr-2026-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- Dollar will hold in the 44.5-45 UAH corridor
- Euro is forecast within 51-52.5 UAH
- NBU will continue interventions of up to $1 billion

As of September 26, 2026, experts in the Ukrainian currency market are preparing for another stage of hryvnia exchange rate adjustments. According to the forecast of Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets Department at Globus Bank, the dollar is expected to remain in the 44.5–45 hryvnia corridor in the cash market in early October, while the European currency may fluctuate in the 51–52.5 hryvnia range.

### External Influence Factors

A key driver of change in October will be not only internal economic policy but also global geopolitical processes. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East and the associated rise in oil prices are exerting direct pressure on currency pairs. The dollar traditionally acts as a "safe haven" for investors during periods of uncertainty, which supports its international value. At the same time, the euro shows greater vulnerability to energy shocks, which is reflected in its dynamics within Ukraine.

### Currency Interdependence

Lesovoy points out that the euro rate in Ukraine is formed as a derivative of the dollar-to-hryvnia rate and the euro/dollar cross-rate on the global market. Thus, even with a stable hryvnia against the dollar, the cost of the euro can change significantly. Europe, as a major importer of energy resources, is more susceptible to inflationary pressure from rising oil prices, which slows economic growth in the Eurozone and affects the attractiveness of the European currency. ### Regulatory Actions and Market Behavior

The National Bank of Ukraine continues its policy of flexible exchange rate formation, compensating for currency shortages through interventions of up to $1 billion per week. This helps maintain market equilibrium and avoid panic. Consumer behavior has transformed over the past two years: the public is less prone to emotional reactions to military news, preferring hryvnia deposits and bonds as a means of capital preservation. ### Contradictory Data

There are discussions regarding the impact of energy carriers on the exchange rate. While analysts point to a direct link between oil prices and currency demand from importers, some experts note a time lag of 2–3 weeks before global fuel prices begin to noticeably affect currency costs in Ukrainian exchange offices due to logistics and inventory replenishment specifics.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [Доллар до 45 гривен, а евро до 52,5: Тарас Лесовой дал прогноз курса на следующую неделю](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/dolar-45-griven-evro-52-5-taras-lesoviy-dav-1790374366.html) - Основной источник информации
- [Евро может готовиться к новому движению: неожиданный прогноз курса валют в Украине](https://glavred.info/economics/evro-mozhet-gotovitsya-k-novomu-dvizheniyu-neozhidannyy-prognoz-kursa-valyut-v-ukraine-10798961.html) - Контекстное дополнение по волатильности евро
- [Стоит ли ожидать скачков курса доллара в октябре: свежий прогноз банкира](https://www.unian.net/economics/finance/kurs-dollara-v-ukraine-izmenitsya-bankir-dal-prognoz-kursa-valyut-na-oktyabr-13509951.html) - Подтверждено по источнику unian.net
- [Доллар, евро и злотый резко пошли вверх: новый курс валют на 22 сентября](https://glavred.info/economics/dollar-evro-i-zlotyy-rezko-poshli-vverh-novyy-kurs-valyut-na-22-sentyabrya-10798304.html) - Контекстное дополнение по волатильности евро

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: What are the main factors influencing the euro rate in Ukraine?
**A:** The euro rate depends on the dollar-to-hryvnia value and the euro/dollar ratio on the global market.

### Q: Should we expect sharp currency spikes in October?
**A:** NBU regulatory interventions are aimed at maintaining balance, however, global geopolitical factors create volatility.