--- title: "Dairy products in Ukraine to rise by 5–10% by the end of 2026: what will happen to prices in autumn" description: "Dairy products in Ukraine may rise by 5–10% by the end of 2026. The price increase will be gradual and will become noticeable as early as September–October due to the seasonal decline in raw milk production against stable processor demand." date: 2026-09-15T05:26:00.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/dairy-prices-rise-5-10-autumn-2026-ukraine tags: [dairy-prices, ukraine, food-inflation, grocery, autumn-2026] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Dairy products in Ukraine to rise by 5–10% by the end of 2026: what will happen to prices in autumn ![Shoppers pick dairy products at a supermarket shelf amid expected price hikes on milk in Ukraine](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/15/molochka-podorozhaet-5-10-osenyu-2026/molochka-podorozhaet-5-10-osenyu-2026-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - Dairy products in Ukraine may rise by 5–10% by the end of 2026; the increase will be gradual and noticeable in September–October. - The cause is the seasonal decline in raw milk production in autumn against stable demand from processors. - Grain supply on the domestic market is sufficient, so for some products the key factor will be the cost of production. - According to the Ministry of Finance: 900 ml of milk — 64–84 UAH, cottage cheese ~241 UAH, 950 ml of kefir — 64.96 UAH, 350 ml of sour cream — 54–74 UAH, 200 g of butter — 120 UAH. - There is no systemic food shortage, but individual products may temporarily disappear due to delivery problems. Autumn 2026 in Ukraine may mark a noticeable but gradual increase in prices for dairy products. According to expert estimates, the segment will rise by 5–10% by the end of the year, with the first changes noticeable to consumers in their receipts expected as early as September–October. RBC-Ukraine reports on the forecast and its causes in an article on what will happen to food prices by the end of the year. ### Seasonal factor: why autumn is a time of price pressure The key driver of the price increase is cited as seasonality. According to expert Gopka, raw milk production traditionally declines in autumn, while demand from processors remains stable. It is precisely this mismatch between supply and demand that creates gradual price pressure in the dairy segment. The expert emphasises that this is not a sharp spike over a short period, but a smooth upward movement in prices, which, however, may become more noticeable to the end consumer by September–October. ### Current prices: what the Ministry of Finance records To understand the scale of the changes, it is important to start from the current figures. According to the Ministry of Finance, at the time of publication 900 ml of milk in Ukraine costs 64–84 UAH, cottage cheese — around 241 UAH, 950 ml of kefir — 64.96 UAH, 350 ml of sour cream — 54–74 UAH, and 200 g of butter — 120 UAH. It is from this base, according to forecasts, that the 5–10% increase by the end of the year will be measured. ### Grain and production costs: other factors shaping prices Unlike the dairy segment, grain supply on the domestic market is assessed as sufficient, so for certain product groups the main variable becomes the overall cost of production. This means that price dynamics will be uneven: where raw materials are in short supply (raw milk in autumn), the pressure will be stronger, while where supply is stable (grain), the increase will be more restrained and will largely depend on producers' costs and logistics. ### No shortage, but there are logistical disruptions It is important to distinguish between price increases and physical shortages. As noted in connection with the topic, there is no systemic food shortage in Ukraine, however, individual products may temporarily disappear from shelves due to delivery problems. It was previously reported that the Auchan chain introduced limits on the purchase of some products, while items above the limits can be acquired through an address for wholesale purchases. Thus, the autumn rise in dairy prices is primarily a matter of supply economics and production costs, not a lack of goods on the market. ## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification - [Dairy prices to start rising as early as autumn: how much will they increase by the end of the year](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/tsini-molochni-produkti-pochnut-zrostati-1789394289.html) - Первичный источник: прогноз 5–10% к концу года, цитата эксперта Гопки о сезонности, данные Минфина по текущим ценам. - [Dairy prices in Ukraine to rise by 5–10% in autumn](https://theotherukraine.info/2026/09/15/tseny-na-molochnye-produkty-na-ukraine-nachnut-rasti-osenyu-na-5-10/) - Корреспондирует с прогнозом 5–10% и осенним стартом роста. - [Prices to rise in autumn: which products will increase the most](https://glavred.info/ukraine/ceny-osenyu-poydut-vverh-kakie-produkty-podorozhayut-bolshe-vsego-10795940.html) - Подтверждает общий тренд осеннего роста цен на продукты. - [How prices for milk, kefir and cottage cheese will rise in autumn 2026 in Ukraine](https://www.objectiv.tv/objectively/2026/09/09/kak-vyrastut-tseny-na-moloko-kefir-i-tvorog-osenyu-2026-goda-v-ukraine/) - Корреспондирует по тематике и срокам (осень 2026) роста цен на молочные продукты. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: How much will dairy products rise in Ukraine by the end of 2026? **A:** According to expert estimates, by 5–10% by the end of the year. The increase will be gradual, not a sharp spike. ### Q: When will the price increase become noticeable to consumers? **A:** As early as September–October 2026, when raw milk production seasonally declines in autumn while processor demand remains stable. ### Q: How much do the main dairy products currently cost according to the Ministry of Finance? **A:** 900 ml of milk — 64–84 UAH, cottage cheese — around 241 UAH, 950 ml of kefir — 64.96 UAH, 350 ml of sour cream — 54–74 UAH, 200 g of butter — 120 UAH. ### Q: Is there a food shortage in Ukraine? **A:** There is no systemic shortage, however, individual products may temporarily disappear from shelves due to delivery problems.