---
title: "Only One in Three: Demographer Names Real Share of Ukrainian Refugees Who Will Return After the War"
description: "Demographer Ella Libanova stated at the Kyiv International Economic Forum that only about a third of the five million refugees currently abroad will return to Ukraine after the war ends."
date: 2026-10-26T19:29:23.717Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/demographer-only-third-refugees-return-after-war
tags: [ukraine, refugees, migration, demographics, population, kyiv-economic-forum]
author: "Andrey Kosynko"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Only One in Three: Demographer Names Real Share of Ukrainian Refugees Who Will Return After the War

![Woman with a suitcase and backpack on the platform of a railway station](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/26/demo-prognoz-vernut-sya-tolko-tret-bezhencev-posle-voyny/demo-prognoz-vernut-sya-tolko-tret-bezhencev-posle-voyny-1.webp)

## Key Points

- About 5 million Ukrainian refugees are abroad: 4.4 million in the EU and ~600k in Canada, the UK, and Moldova
- The return forecast has dropped from 50% in 2022 to about 30% currently
- 70% of Ukrainian women aged 20–64 abroad are employed, which deters them from returning
- After the war, a second wave of outflow is possible — men and veterans who failed to find decent earnings in the civilian economy
- Ukraine's population has shrunk to 28.5 million people

At the Kyiv International Economic Forum, Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, presented an updated forecast regarding the return of Ukrainian refugees. According to her estimates, about five million citizens are currently outside Ukraine, but only about a third of them will return home after the end of hostilities. This was reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the scientist's speech, according to Ukrinform.

### Five Million Abroad: Structure of the Diaspora

According to Eurostat data as of June 30, 2026, 4.4 million Ukrainians lived in European Union countries. Another approximately 600,000 are outside the EU — primarily in Canada, the UK, and to a lesser extent in Moldova. Thus, the total number of Ukrainian migrants who left due to the full-scale war is approximately five million people. By age composition, the picture is as follows: a third of this contingent are children and adolescents under 18, while the share of persons over 65 is only 6%.

### From 50% to 30%: How the Forecast Changed

In 2022, in the first months of the full-scale invasion, demographers still allowed for the return of about half of those who left. However, according to Libanova, with each month of the war, the proportion of those ready to return is decreasing. The scientist associates this with two factors: the growing adaptation of migrants in host countries and the ongoing destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine. «More and more are adapting there and more and more destruction is here», she explained. As a result, the current realistic forecast has dropped to a third of the total number of refugees.

### 70% of Women Work Abroad: The Economics of Retention

Libanova calls economic integration a key factor keeping Ukrainians abroad. According to her data, 70% of Ukrainian women aged 20 to 64 who are abroad are employed. The scientist emphasizes that for the first wave of migrants this is «an absolutely incredible indicator», demonstrating deep integration into local labor markets. The decision to return, she says, is not always determined solely by financial considerations: a complex of factors influences the choice — from children's educational prospects to the quality of medical care and the social environment.

### Risk of a Second Wave of Migration After the War

Ella Libanova also warned about a possible second wave of migration from Ukraine after the end of hostilities and the lifting of the ban on men leaving the country. In her logic, veterans returning from the front may find that the civilian economy cannot provide earnings comparable to what their families already have secured abroad. «And abroad, there is already a settled wife, a child who, they believe, has prospects for a better future», the demographer commented. This scenario, according to her estimate, could additionally reduce the country's population.

### Demographic Crisis: Population Shrunk to 28.5 Million

Against the backdrop of ongoing migration processes, Ukraine's population, according to recent data, has shrunk to 28.5 million people. Libanova noted that the situation is aggravated by recent periods when the outflow of citizens abroad has not stopped. The combination of factors — the duration of the conflict, the destruction of infrastructure, economic adaptation abroad, and a potential second wave of outflow — forms, according to the scientist's assessment, one of the most serious demographic threats to the state in the post-war period.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Только 30% беженцев вернутся в Украину после окончания войны, - прогноз демографа](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/lishe-30-bizhentsiv-povernutsya-ukrayinu-1793041992.html) - Primary source: Ella Libanova's speech at the Kyiv International Economic Forum. Figures (5 million refugees, 4.4 million in the EU according to Eurostat as of June 30, 600k outside the EU, 70% employed women, population 28.5 million) are cited in the source text.

## FAQ

### How many Ukrainian refugees are currently abroad?

According to data presented by Ella Libanova at the Kyiv International Economic Forum, about five million citizens are outside Ukraine: 4.4 million in European Union countries (according to Eurostat as of June 30) and another about 600,000 in Canada, the UK, and Moldova.

### What percentage of refugees is forecasted to return to Ukraine after the war?

Demographer Ella Libanova estimates the share of returnees at approximately one-third (about 30%) of the total five million refugees. In 2022, the forecast was around 50%, but it decreases with each month of the war.

### Why are Ukrainians not returning?

Key factors include economic adaptation abroad (70% of women aged 20–64 are employed), increasing infrastructure destruction in Ukraine, children's educational and social prospects, and the overall complex of living conditions in host countries.

### What is the «second wave of migration» and when might it happen?

According to Libanova's assessment, after the end of the war and the lifting of the travel ban for men, a second wave of outflow is possible: veterans who fail to find earnings in the civilian economy comparable to those secured for their families abroad may join those who have already left.

### How has Ukraine's population changed?

According to data presented at the forum, Ukraine's population has shrunk to 28.5 million people due to citizens leaving the country, with migration processes in the recent period exacerbating the situation.