---
title: "Denmark's Intelligence: Russia to Intensify Hybrid Attacks on NATO in the Coming Months and May Move to a Limited Military Aggression"
description: "Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service warned that Russia will intensify hybrid attacks on NATO in the coming months and may move to a limited military aggression against the Alliance's bordering countries."
date: 2026-09-24T14:02:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/denmark-intelligence-russia-to-intensify-hybrid-attacks-on-nato
tags: [nato, hybrid-warfare, denmark-intelligence, russia, cyber-threat, baltic-security]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Denmark's Intelligence: Russia to Intensify Hybrid Attacks on NATO in the Coming Months and May Move to a Limited Military Aggression

![NATO cyber defense operators at workstations with threat monitoring systems amid Russia's hybrid attacks](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/24/razvedka-danii-rossiya-usilit-gibridnye-ataki-na-nato/razvedka-danii-rossiya-usilit-gibridnye-ataki-na-nato-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- Denmark's intelligence forecasts more frequent Russian hybrid attacks on the West and NATO, with consequences exceeding those of the past.
- The agency assesses a "growing risk" of a limited military attack on NATO's bordering countries in the coming months.
- The assessment is underpinned by an incident with signal flares near Denmark and the raising of the cyber threat level on 24 September.

Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service has presented an updated assessment of the nature of the hybrid war that Russia is waging against Western countries. According to a statement from the agency, relayed via Reuters and recounted by RBC-Ukraine, Moscow will carry out more frequent attacks on the West and NATO, "with greater consequences for the countries targeted by these attacks than in the past." The conclusion of the Danish analysts underscores that the intensity and scale of destabilizing actions are growing, not declining, despite the Alliance's earlier warnings.

### Scenario of a Limited Military Aggression

A key element of the new assessment is the forecast of a "growing risk" that Russia will launch a limited military attack on one or several NATO countries bordering Russia. The head of the Defence Intelligence Service, Thomas Arenkilde, explained at a press conference that such an attack "would be a desperate step on the part of Russia" and, alongside intensified hybrid attacks, "could potentially occur in the coming months." In his words, Moscow may deploy a limited number of troops in the Alliance's border zone, possibly under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities, with "the aim not being to seize a country, but to divide NATO."

### Baltic Incident and Elevated Cyber Threat

The intelligence assessment is underpinned by specific incidents. According to Danish military data, last week a Russian frigate fired two signal flares toward a Danish military helicopter, one of which narrowly missed the aircraft. In parallel, on 24 September the Danish resilience agency, in a separate statement, reported an elevated likelihood of Russia attempting destructive cyberattacks against Denmark and raised the threat level. Thus, the hybrid pressure is assessed as simultaneous: naval, cyber, and sabotage-related.

### Position of NATO and Bordering Countries

Against the backdrop of the Danish warnings, NATO has already stated its readiness to respond to potential escalation on the eastern flank of Europe, and an Alliance general emphasized the Alliance's readiness for any provocations. The NATO Secretary General, in turn, called on European leaders to maintain composure in response to Russia's hybrid attacks. Lithuania, for its part, reported receiving intelligence on possible Russian preparations for operations "under a false flag" to test NATO's readiness to respond, indicating a consistent picture drawn by the intelligence services of several Alliance countries.

### Context: Testing NATO "in Months, Not Years"

The Danish assessment fits into a broader series of warnings. Earlier, according to RBC-Ukraine, European intelligence services allowed for the possibility of an imminent Russian test of NATO's resilience, noting that a potential attack could occur "in months, not years." The coincidence of timelines in the assessments of different services strengthens the signal that Western intelligence considers the coming months a critical window for the escalation of hybrid pressure on the Alliance's eastern flank.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [Russia intends to intensify hybrid attacks on NATO, says Danish intelligence](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/rosiya-zbiraetsya-posiliti-gibridni-ataki-1790258091.html) - Первичный пересказ оценки датской оборонной разведки: более частые атаки, риск ограниченного военного нападения в ближайшие месяцы, цитата руководителя разведки, инцидент с фрегатом и сигнальными ракетами, заявление датского агентства устойчивости о киберугрозе 24 сентября.
- [NATO Secretary General called on European leaders to maintain composure in response to Russia's hybrid attacks](https://www.rfi.fr/ru/%D0%B2-%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B5/20260924-%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%BA-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BE-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB-%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B5%D0%B9%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%85-%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2-%D1%81%D0%BE%D1%85%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8F%D1%82%D1%8C-%D1%85%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B5-%D0%B2-%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%82-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5-%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B8-%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8) - Подтверждает реакцию НАТО на гибридные атаки России и общий контекст эскалации на восточном фланге (дата публикации 24.09.2026).
- [Denmark warned that Russia may intensify hybrid attacks against the West](https://www.kiprinform.com/news/daniya-predupredila-chto-rossiya-mozhet-usilit-gibridnye-ataki-protiv-zapada/) - Независимое подтверждение того, что Дания публично предупредила об усилении гибридных атак России против Запада.
- [Danish intelligence said Russia is recruiting Danes to carry out sabotage — Reuters](https://zn.ua/europe/razvedka-danii-zajavila-o-verbovke-datchan-rossiej-dlja-provedenija-diversij-reuters.html) - Дополнительный контекст: датская разведка также указывает на вербовку граждан для диверсий, что согласуется с общей оценкой гибридного давления.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: What exactly does Denmark's intelligence forecast?
**A:** The agency assesses that Russia will carry out more frequent hybrid attacks on the West and NATO, with consequences exceeding those of the past, and forecasts a "growing risk" of a limited military attack on one or several NATO bordering countries in the coming months.

### Q: Could Russia use limited military force against NATO?
**A:** According to the head of Danish intelligence, Moscow may deploy a limited number of troops in the Alliance's border zone, possibly under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities, with the aim not of seizing a country but of dividing NATO. Such a step has been characterized as "desperate" and potentially possible in the coming months.

### Q: Are there specific incidents that confirm the assessment?
**A:** Yes: according to Danish military data, last week a Russian frigate fired two signal flares toward a Danish military helicopter, and on 24 September the Danish resilience agency raised the cyber threat level, pointing to the likelihood of destructive Russian cyberattacks against Denmark.