---
title: "Dollar at 45 Hryvnias: Banker Forecasts Exchange Rate for November 9–15 and Explains the Role of NBU Interventions"
description: "According to the Director of Financial Markets at Globus Bank, the dollar exchange rate for November 9–15 will remain in the range of 45–45.7 UAH, and the NBU will continue weekly interventions of up to $1.5 billion to curb market hype."
date: 2026-11-07T05:34:37.029Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/dollar-45-hryvnias-forecast-november-nbu-interventions
tags: [usd-uah, currency-market, nbu-interventions, globus-bank, inflation-ukraine, exchange-rate]
author: "Darya Fomina"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Dollar at 45 Hryvnias: Banker Forecasts Exchange Rate for November 9–15 and Explains the Role of NBU Interventions

![Financial charts displayed over a stack of US dollar bills](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/07/dollar-45-grivn-prognoz-kursa-9-15-naborya-interventsii-nbu/dollar-45-grivn-prognoz-kursa-9-15-naborya-interventsii-nbu-1.webp)

## Key Points

- The dollar exchange rate for November 9–15, 2026, is projected in the range of 45–45.7 UAH, euro — 50–52 UAH
- The NBU will continue weekly currency interventions in the amount of $1–1.5 billion
- The predominance of demand over supply on the interbank market is estimated at 20–25%
- The imbalance in the cash market in early November is temporary and will be resolved by replenishing reserves
- Inflation has a wartime nature (costs for energy and logistics), which limits the possibilities for weakening the hryvnia

Ukraine's currency market is entering a new phase: the dollar exchange rate has already crossed the psychological threshold of 45 hryvnias, and the rate dynamics in the coming days will depend entirely on how the market reacts to this milestone. In a commentary to RBC-Ukraine, Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activity Department at Globus Bank, presented a forecast for the period from November 9 to 15, 2026: on the interbank and cash markets, the dollar will range between 45–45.7 UAH, while the euro will stay in the corridor of 50–52 UAH. According to his assessment, the overall picture will remain predictable, and the nature of fluctuations will largely repeat the dynamics of the previous two weeks, although situational changes in supply and demand cannot be ruled out.

### Imbalance in the Cash Market: Temporary Glitch, Not a Systemic Crisis

In early November, a noticeable imbalance arose in the cash segment due to a temporary reduction in the physical supply of dollars. This led to a widening gap between exchange rates in currency booths and on the interbank market, causing additional anxiety among private investors. However, as Lesovoy emphasizes, this situation does not indicate fundamental problems in the monetary system or the approach of a rapid depreciation of the hryvnia. It is expected that in the coming days, banks will replenish their cash dollar reserves, after which the gap between the two segments will gradually narrow, and additional currency supply will reduce pressure on selling rates in exchange offices.

### NBU Interventions and the Managed Flexibility Mechanism

A key factor determining equilibrium on the interbank market remains the predominance of demand over supply, which, according to the banker's forecast, could reach 20–25%. A significant portion of currency needs is formed by purchases of fuel, energy equipment, and production materials—under wartime conditions, these expenditures are associated with maintaining enterprise operations, restoring damaged capacities, and ensuring the economic energy security. To compensate for the imbalance, the National Bank will continue currency interventions with an estimated volume of $1–1.5 billion per week. Thanks to the managed flexibility mechanism, the regulator will be able to curb excessive exchange rate fluctuations and prevent additional hype in the market.

### Wartime Inflation: Costs Put Pressure on Final Prices

The economic background, according to Lesovoy's assessment, remains complex. Russian attacks on energy, industrial, and logistics infrastructure increase business costs and support inflation, which the banker characterizes as having a distinct wartime nature. We are talking about cost-push inflation: the rising cost of production, transportation, and energy supply is gradually translating into final prices for consumers. In such conditions, the National Bank will strive to keep the exchange rate near current levels so that excessive weakening of the hryvnia does not increase inflationary pressure on the domestic economy.

### Key Parameters for the Week of November 9–15

According to Taras Lesovoy's forecast, the average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0.1–0.15 UAH, and average weekly rate deviations will be 1–1.5% from the starting rate of the week. Daily exchange rate changes will remain within a narrow corridor, confirming the relatively stable nature of the market during the specified period. At the same time, military and economic risks persist, and their evolution will be the main external factor capable of adjusting the baseline scenario.

### Advice to Citizens: Do Not Buy Currency at Peaks

Separately, the banker draws attention to the behavioral aspect: since the dollar has already crossed the 45 hryvnia mark, the public's emotional reaction to further exchange rate changes will gradually decrease. Lesovoy advises not to rush into purchasing currency at inflated prices, emphasizing that the temporary appreciation of the dollar does not necessarily mean the beginning of a prolonged weakening of the hryvnia. Attempts to buy currency at any cost amid forecasts of further exchange rate growth may lead to purchasing dollars precisely at rate peaks. When making decisions on purchasing currency, according to him, one should primarily consider one's own financial needs and the real situation on the market. The material is prepared exclusively for informational purposes and is not financial or investment advice.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Доллар на курсовом пике: прогноз курса от банкира на следующую неделю](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/dolar-kursovomu-piku-prognoz-kursu-vid-bankira-1794000654.html) - Primary source. All figures (45–45.7 UAH, 50–52 UAH, $1–1.5 billion interventions, 20–25% imbalance, 0.1–0.15 UAH spread) are taken from T. Lesovoy's commentary.
- [Курс валют перед Пасхой: подорожает ли доллар в Украине — прогноз банкира](https://focus.ua/economics/749507-chto-budet-s-kursom-valyut-v-ukraine-nakanune-pashi-prognoz-bankira) - Contextual source (April period). Confirms T. Lesovoy's role as a permanent expert of Globus Bank on currency forecasts.
- [Грозит ли курсу валют "стихийное бедствие": прогноз банкира на первые дни апреля](https://www.unian.net/economics/finance/kurs-dollara-v-ukraine-ozhidaetsya-li-rost-ili-padenie-kursa-dollara-ssha-prognoz-bankira-do-5-aprelya-13328121.html) - Contextual source (April period). Confirms the role of NBU interventions as the main balancing tool.
- [Когда доллар вырастет до 47 гривень: аналитик озвучил прогноз курса в Украине](https://www.unian.net/economics/finance/kurs-dollara-v-ukraine-kakoy-prognoz-kursa-dollara-v-ukraine-svezhiy-prognoz-analitika-13419204.html) - Contextual source. The baseline scenario of 44.65–45.10 UAH and a possible movement to 46–47 UAH by the end of the year are consistent with Lesovoy's November forecast.

## FAQ

### What dollar exchange rate is projected for November 9–15, 2026?

According to Taras Lesovoy (Globus Bank), the dollar on the interbank and cash markets will range between 45–45.7 UAH, and the euro in the corridor of 50–52 UAH.

### Why did an imbalance occur in the cash market in early November?

The reason was a temporary reduction in the physical supply of dollars, which led to a widening gap between exchange rates in currency booths and the interbank market. The situation is temporary and will be resolved after banks replenish their cash dollar reserves.

### What volume of NBU currency interventions is expected for the week?

The estimated volume of National Bank interventions is $1–1.5 billion per week. These interventions are carried out within the framework of the managed flexibility mechanism to curb excessive rate fluctuations.

### Should I buy dollars expecting further exchange rate growth?

Taras Lesovoy advises not to rush into buying currency at inflated prices. The temporary appreciation of the dollar does not necessarily mean the beginning of a prolonged weakening of the hryvnia, and buying at peaks can be unprofitable. It is recommended to focus on your own financial needs.

### What factors support inflation in Ukraine?

Inflation has a wartime nature and belongs to cost-push inflation: attacks on energy, industrial, and logistics infrastructure increase the cost of production, transportation, and energy supply, which translates into final prices.