---
title: "Dollar at 45 Hryvnias: How the NBU's \"Uncertainty\" Strategy is Changing the Rules of the Game in the Currency Market"
description: "The dollar in Ukrainian banks has broken the 45 hryvnia mark. Experts explain the growth by the NBU's strategy aimed at creating \"uncertainty\" to combat speculators. Is the dollar rate expected to rise to 46 hryvnias by the end of the year? We analyze the forecast. 📉💵🇺🇦"
date: 2026-06-09T11:32:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/dollar-at-45-hryvnias-how-the-nbu-uncertainty-strategy-is-changing-the-rules-of-the-game-in-the-currency-market
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Dollar at 45 Hryvnias: How the NBU's "Uncertainty" Strategy is Changing the Rules of the Game in the Currency Market

![Hands holding dollar bills against a stock market graph, illustrating the dollar rate rise to 45 hryvnias and NBU strategy](https://xab.info/media/2026/06/09/kurs-dollar-v-ukraine-45-griven-strategiya-nbu/kurs-dollar-v-ukraine-45-griven-strategiya-nbu-1.webp)

The Ukrainian currency market has once again become the object of close attention. Banks in the country are recording an increase in the selling rates of the dollar and the euro, while the national currency is demonstrating a gradual decline. As of June 9, the dollar selling rate in Ukrainian banks reached the mark of 45 hryvnias. At the same time, the difference between the official rate of the National Bank and the actual quotes in the branches of financial institutions for the euro is about one hryvnia.

### Strategy of "Constructive Uncertainty"

Experts link the current volatility to the regulator's long-term policy. Taras Kozak, founder and president of the investment group "UNIVER," notes in a comment to RBC-Ukraine that the National Bank has been adhering to a strategy of "managed flexibility" and "constructive uncertainty" for three years.

The main goal of such a policy is to make precise forecasting of the exchange rate impossible. The regulator intentionally creates conditions under which speculation becomes risky for both banks and private investors. This is why paradoxical situations are often observed in the market: demand in the interbank market falls, but the dollar rate rises, or vice versa. According to the expert, these are conscious manipulations designed to confuse market participants and prevent them from profiting from a stable trend.

### Why Short-Term Forecasts Are Meaningless

Under the current strategy, any predictions for a week, month, or quarter lose their relevance. The market reacts to the actions of the regulator rather than to classic economic indicators, making short-term analysis ineffective.

The National Bank has clearly outlined its priorities: the yield of hryvnia financial instruments, such as deposits or bonds of the internal state loan (OVGZ), must exceed the rate of devaluation of the national currency. The regulator's logic is simple: if an investor invests in OVGZ, then after the investment term ends, they will be able to buy more foreign currency than if they had simply kept their funds in dollars.

### Forecast for the End of the Year

Despite the current volatility, the long-term scenario looks more predictable. Taras Kozak believes that by the end of 2026, the growth of the dollar rate against the hryvnia is unlikely to exceed 10%. A more optimistic forecast by the expert assumes growth at the level of 7–8%.

If the rate was at the level of 42 hryvnias at the beginning of the year, then by the end of the year it will likely remain below the 46 hryvnia mark. The National Bank is interested in maintaining the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments to avoid a mass flight of the population into foreign currency. Thus, the limits of dollar growth in the current year will most likely be limited.

*Note: This material is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, including the possibility of loss of capital. It is recommended to consult with a licensed specialist before making financial decisions.*