---
title: "Pressure is growing, demand exceeds supply: banker gives dollar exchange rate forecast"
description: "The autumn FX market faces a 15-20% surge in demand due to energy imports. The NBU restrains the situation through interventions, with the dollar projected at 44.7-45.4 UAH."
date: 2026-10-10T04:32:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/dollar-exchange-rate-forecast-october-2026
tags: [currency-market, dollar-rate, nbu, ukraine-economy]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Pressure is growing, demand exceeds supply: banker gives dollar exchange rate forecast

![Dollar and euro exchange rate forecast chart for October 2026](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/10/prognoz-kursa-dollara-oktyabr-2026/prognoz-kursa-dollara-oktyabr-2026-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- Currency demand exceeds supply by 15-20% due to energy imports.
- The National Bank spends $1-1.2 billion weekly on market interventions.
- The dollar rate for October 12-18 is expected within 44.7-45.4 UAH.
- The gap between the interbank and cash markets remains minimal.

The autumn foreign exchange market in Ukraine in October 2026 is entering a period of increased pressure: demand for foreign currency consistently exceeds supply. The main driver of this dynamic remains seasonal purchases of fuel and energy resources required for the heating season. ### Pressure factors and the regulator's role

According to Taras Lesovoi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, during periods of heightened uncertainty, the market increasingly depends on the National Bank's ability to act proactively. The estimated gap between demand and supply for the week of October 12–18, 2026, could reach 15–20%. Energy importers remain the most active buyers.

### Projected exchange rate figures

To balance supply and demand, the regulator allocates about $1–1.2 billion weekly for interventions. The dollar exchange rate on the interbank market is projected at 44.7–45.3 UAH/dollar, and on the cash market at 44.8–45.4 UAH/dollar. Meanwhile, the euro is forecasted within 50–51.5 UAH/euro interbank and 50–52 UAH/euro in exchange offices. ### Stability of the financial system

The interbank and cash segments remain closely aligned, preventing panic among the population. However, the overall economic situation and news background create additional psychological pressure. Despite this, experts consider the current currency model stable due to substantial NBU reserves.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [Давление растет, спрос выше предложения: банкир дал прогноз курса доллара на следующую неделю](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/tisk-zrostae-popit-vishche-propozitsiyi-bankir-1791447392.html) - Основной источник комментария банкира Тараса Лесового по курсам валют и прогнозу на октябрь.
- [Когда ожидать обвала гривни: банкир озвучил прогноз курса доллара до середины августа](https://www.unian.net/economics/finance/kurs-dollara-izmenitsya-chto-zhdet-dollar-v-blizhayshee-vremya-v-ukraine-13462233.html) - Подтверждено по источнику unian.net
- [Прогноз курса доллара на октябрь: удержат ли резервы НБУ гривну от падения](https://fakty.com.ua/ru/ukraine/ekonomika/20261001-prognoz-kursu-dolara-na-zhovten-chy-vtrymayut-rezervy-nbu-gryvnyu-vid-padinnya/) - Контекст роли резервов НБУ и сезонных факторов давления на валютный рынок.
- [Что будет с долларом в октябре: эксперт дал прогноз курса и назвал риски](https://glavred.info/economics/chto-budet-s-dollarom-v-oktyabre-ekspert-dal-prognoz-kursa-i-nazval-riski-10800407.html) - Подтверждено по источнику glavred.info

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: What is the dollar exchange rate forecast for October 12-18, 2026?
**A:** On the interbank market, the dollar is expected within 44.7-45.3 UAH, and in cash markets at 44.8-45.4 UAH.

### Q: Why is the demand for foreign currency rising in autumn?
**A:** The rise in demand is driven by active fuel and energy purchases by Ukrainian importers.