---
title: "Dollar in a narrow corridor: how interventions and high rates keep the rate stable next week"
description: "Next week, the dollar exchange rate will remain stable in the 44.7–45.1 UAH corridor thanks to NBU interventions and high deposit rates. The expert forecasts an increase in market activity only by August, when preparations for winter begin. 📉💵"
date: 2026-07-04T04:32:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/dollar-in-a-narrow-corridor-how-interventions-and-high-rates-keep-the-rate-stable-next-week
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Dollar in a narrow corridor: how interventions and high rates keep the rate stable next week

![Stacks of dollar bills overlaid with a stock market chart, symbolizing the stability of the dollar's exchange rate amid high interest rates](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/04/prognoz-kursa-dollara-na-nedelyu-lesovoy/prognoz-kursa-dollara-na-nedelyu-lesovoy-1.webp)

The Ukrainian foreign exchange market is expected to remain calm in the coming week. Experts do not anticipate sharp fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate, which will most likely continue to fluctuate near current levels. The stability of the situation is ensured by a complex of measures: from the active actions of the regulator to the behavior of depositors themselves.

Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank, told RBC-Ukraine about the details of the forecast and the factors influencing the exchange rate.

### Weekly rate forecast: narrow corridor

According to the banker, the beginning of July will bring no surprises and will repeat the trends of the first days of the month. The situation remains manageable, and there are currently no prerequisites for sharp exchange rate changes. Lesovoy provided specific figures for the interbank market rate between July 6 and 12:

- US Dollar: from 44.7 to 45.1 hryvnias.

- Euro: from 51.5 to 52.5 hryvnias (taking into account the situation on the international market).

Daily exchange rate changes will remain insignificant, allowing businesses and the population to plan their expenses without the risk of sudden currency appreciation.

### The role of interventions and demand imbalance

Current stability is the result not of chance, but of the targeted work of the National Bank. The expert predicts that the regulator may direct between 800 and 850 million dollars to support the market.

"This means that the market will continue to need support, as demand will exceed supply by about 10–15%. However, this level of imbalance does not look critical," explained Taras Lesovoy.

High demand for foreign currency is due to the dependence of the Ukrainian economy on imports. Businesses need dollars to purchase fuel, energy equipment, and goods to maintain operations. An important external factor remains the global oil price: if it does not show sharp fluctuations, importers will not have to urgently increase currency purchases.

### The impact of high rates and population behavior

A significant factor in stability has been the financial discipline of the population. High deposit rates in hryvnia keep funds within the banking system.

According to the banker's estimates, up to 25–30% of citizens' funds, which could otherwise be converted into foreign currency, remain in hryvnia deposits. This creates a "safety cushion" and reduces pressure on the exchange rate.

The cash segment deserves special attention. Exchange offices traditionally react faster to changes on the interbank market. During periods of tension, the difference between the buying and selling rates can exceed one hryvnia; however, under the current scenario, the situation remains calm.

### What to expect in the second half of summer

Despite a relatively calm July, the expert warns of a possible change in the situation. The foreign exchange market may become more active starting from the second half of August.

This is related to the preparation of the state, businesses, and the population for the autumn-winter period. During this time, an increase in imports of generators, energy equipment, materials for infrastructure restoration, and other critically important goods is expected. Accordingly, demand for foreign currency will increase, and the National Bank will likely have to enter the market more actively to curb excessive exchange rate fluctuations.