---
title: "Dollar to Hold Below 46 UAH: Globus Bank Expert Names Exchange Rate for November 2–8"
description: "Globus Bank Financial Markets Director Taras Lesovoy forecasts the dollar exchange rate for November 2–8 at 44.85–45.7 UAH on the interbank market. No sharp spikes are expected: the NBU will continue interventions of $1–1.2 billion."
date: 2026-10-31T05:34:25.213Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/dollar-rate-early-november-globus-bank-forecast
tags: [ukraine-currency, dollar-rate, nbu-interventions, inflation, financial-markets, hryvnia-deposits]
author: "Darya Fomina"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Dollar to Hold Below 46 UAH: Globus Bank Expert Names Exchange Rate for November 2–8

![Stock market charts and one-hundred-dollar bills against a trader's desktop](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/31/kurs-dollara-na-nachale-noyabrya-2026-prognoz-globus-banka/kurs-dollara-na-nachale-noyabrya-2026-prognoz-globus-banka-1.webp)

## Key Points

- For November 2–8, the interbank dollar rate is projected at 44.85–45.7 UAH, euro at 50–52 UAH
- Currency demand may exceed supply by 20–25%, with NBU preparing interventions at $1–1.2 billion
- Military attacks on infrastructure and rising fuel prices intensify inflationary pressure
- No cash currency deficit is expected; 3–6 month hryvnia deposits offer up to 17.5% per annum

At the beginning of November, Ukraine's foreign exchange market will continue to operate under heightened military risks, persistent inflationary pressure, and ongoing demand for foreign currency. At the same time, according to Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, sharp exchange rate spikes are not expected in the coming week. From November 2 to 8, the interbank dollar exchange rate may fluctuate within the range of 44.85–45.7 UAH, while the euro will range between 50–52 UAH. In the cash market, the American currency will trade in the corridor of 45–45.7 UAH, and the European one at 50–52 UAH, based on the expert's calculations.

### Military Risks and Inflationary Background

Russian attacks on energy, production, and transport infrastructure remain a key factor of pressure on the economy and, consequently, on exchange rate dynamics. Facility damage forces businesses to seek alternative electricity sources, rebuild logistics routes, and repair equipment. Additional business costs translate into prices and intensify inflationary pressure. The expert noted that fuel costs are an equally significant factor, simultaneously affecting transportation prices and production expenses. According to Lesovoy, a significant portion of current inflationary pressure is driven by circumstances over which consumer demand exerts only limited influence, making the exchange rate trajectory less sensitive to domestic demand.

### The Role of National Bank Interventions

The immediate exchange rate situation at the beginning of November will largely depend on the regulator's actions. According to Lesovoy's estimates, currency demand may exceed supply by 20–25% over the coming week. To balance the market, the NBU will likely need to maintain significant foreign exchange interventions—roughly at the level of $1–1.2 billion. It is this managed flexibility mechanism, he said, that will allow the regulator to curb excessive demand and prevent sharp rate fluctuations. As a result, despite daily quotation changes, the overall situation on the foreign exchange market remains predictable. Meanwhile, the cash market will primarily focus on interbank quotes, though during periods of heightened demand, the spread between buying and selling rates may situationally widen to nearly 1 UAH, with the selling rate approaching the upper limit of the projected range. The expert assesses that there are no grounds to speak of a potential cash currency deficit: Ukrainians can freely purchase cash currency in hryvnias without amount limits.

### Alternatives for Preserving Savings

Lesovoy also pointed out that citizens do not necessarily have to choose exclusively foreign currency to preserve their savings. Hryvnia deposits for a term of 3 to 6 months offer an average of about 14–14.5% per annum, more profitable offers provide approximately 16%, and maximum rates reach 17–17.5%. As an example, the expert cited a calculation: a deposit of 50,000 hryvnias for six months at an annual rate of 16% will yield roughly 3,080 hryvnias in net income for the depositor. Domestic government bonds (OVGV) remain another instrument for preserving savings, allowing investors to lock in yields over a longer horizon.

### Daily Fluctuations and Weekly Deviations

According to Taras Lesovoy's forecast, daily exchange rate changes next week will depend on the foreign exchange market segment. On the interbank market, fluctuations may reach 0.05–0.15 UAH per day, in commercial banks 0.1–0.2 UAH, and in exchange offices up to 0.3 UAH. The average difference between interbank and cash market rates is expected at 0.1–0.15 UAH. General weekly exchange rate deviations, the expert estimates, may amount to 1–1.5% from initial values. Thus, despite background pressure from military and inflationary factors, Ukraine's foreign exchange market at the beginning of November 2026 will maintain a managed trajectory without the risk of a sharp depreciation of the hryvnia, according to Globus Bank calculations.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Доллар может удержаться ниже 46 грн: эксперт спрогнозировал курс на следующую неделю](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/dolar-mozhe-vtrimatisya-nizhche-46-grn-ekspert-1793407052.html) - Original source. Taras Lesovoy's forecast for November 2–8: interbank 44.85–45.7 UAH, cash 45–45.7 UAH; NBU interventions $1–1.2 billion; deposits up to 17.5%.
- [Доллар и евро резко теряют позиции: новый курс валют на 14 сентября](https://glavred.info/economics/dollar-i-evro-rezko-teryayut-pozicii-novyy-kurs-valyut-na-14-sentyabrya-10795898.html) - Context: official rate on September 14 was 44.54 UAH/USD, 51.63 UAH/EUR. The same expert Lesovoy forecasted interbank at 44.4–44.8 UAH for September 14–20. The trend toward gradual hryvnia weakening is confirmed.
- [Доллар готовится к скачку: курс может подняться даже выше 45 грн (Обновлено)](https://focus.ua/economics/766869-kurs-valyut-v-ukraine-7-12-sentyabrya-dollar-mozhet-prevysit-45-grn) - Context: analyst Shevchyshyn recorded a rise in currency deficit in September ($210.3 million per day). This confirms the structural nature of the deficit Lesovoy mentions for November.
- [Доллар пошел вверх, а евро подешевел: появился новый курс валют на 16 сентября](https://glavred.info/economics/dollar-poshel-vverh-a-evro-podeshevel-poyavilsya-novyy-kurs-valyut-na-16-sentyabrya-10796840.html) - Контекст: официальный курс на 14 сентября — 44,54 грн/долл., 51,63 грн/евро. Тот же эксперт Лесовой прогнозировал межбанк 44,4–44,8 грн на 14–20 сентября. Тренд к постепенному ослаблению гривны подтверждается.

## FAQ

### What dollar exchange rate is forecasted for November 2–8, 2026?

According to Taras Lesovoy from Globus Bank, the dollar will fluctuate between 44.85–45.7 UAH on the interbank market and 45–45.7 UAH in cash. The euro will be 50–52 UAH in both markets.

### Is a sharp exchange rate spike expected in early November?

No. The expert believes the managed flexibility mechanism and NBU interventions of $1–1.2 billion will curb excess demand and prevent sharp fluctuations. Daily interbank changes will be .05–0.15 UAH.

### Will there be a cash currency deficit?

According to the expert, there are no grounds to speak of a cash currency deficit. Ukrainians can freely buy currency for cash hryvnias without amount limits.

### What alternatives exist for preserving savings besides currency?

Hryvnia deposits for 3–6 months offer an average of 14–14.5% per annum, with maximum rates at 17–17.5%. Domestic government bonds (OVGV) are also available.