--- title: "Dollar at 45.67: NBU and investment banker diverge on reasons for record rate jump" description: "The official dollar rate reached a record 45.67 UAH on November 4. The NBU attributes the jump to seasonal demand and port blockades, while investment banker Taras Kozak argues the regulator could have smoothed the peak and avoided panic." date: 2026-11-05T12:07:49.684Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/dollar-record-45-67-nbu-kozak tags: [dollar, hryvnia, nbu, exchange-rate, ukraine-economy, devaluation, gold-reserves] author: "Andrey Kosynko" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Dollar at 45.67: NBU and investment banker diverge on reasons for record rate jump ![Financial chart on a tablet screen next to US dollar bills](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/05/dollar-record-45-67-nbu-kozak-devaluation/dollar-record-45-67-nbu-kozak-devaluation-1.webp) ## Key Points - The official dollar rate hit a record 45.67 UAH on November 4, 2026 - The NBU attributes hryvnia weakening to port blockades, rising demand after budget unblocking, and seasonal factors - Investment banker Taras Kozak believes the NBU could have prevented a 1 UAH jump in a few days and notes the panic caused by the cash rate gap - During the week of October 26–30, the NBU conducted a record intervention, selling $1.8 billion on the interbank market - Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves total $47.1 billion, expected to exceed $60 billion by year-end The official dollar exchange rate in Ukraine reached a record high: on November 4, 2026, it hit 45.67 hryvnias per dollar. As of October 28, the regulator had set the rate at 45.6 hryvnias, a sharp jump from the previous levels of around 44.6 hryvnias recorded in late September and October. According to Taras Kozak, president of the Univer investment group, a one-hryvnia increase in just a few days is an abnormally fast pace that could have been smoothed out through more active intervention by the National Bank. ### Why the hryvnia weakened: the regulator's version The NBU press office explains the weakening of the hryvnia in the second half of October by two factors. Firstly, the supply of foreign currency in the domestic market decreased due to port blockades and export restrictions. Secondly, demand for dollars surged after the unblocking of budget expenditures, which had been suspended as part of a government austerity program: VAT refunds to companies resumed, which, along with other spending items, stimulated demand for foreign currency. The NBU also notes that demand from the public increased against the backdrop of typical seasonal growth and the renewal of monthly limits on currency purchases. ### “Exchange offices proved the NBU was wrong” Taras Kozak points to a key indicator: the cash dollar exchange rate exceeded the interbank market rate by a full hryvnia. According to him, such a gap is direct evidence of panicked demand: the public, hearing about problems with external financial aid, reduced spending, non-payment of VAT, and the suspension of the metallurgical sector, “immediately rushes to the exchange office for currency.” The expert emphasizes that the problem is not in the devaluation itself, but in its speed — a drop of 1.5–2% in a few days deprives economic agents of predictability. ### How the NBU responded: consultations and cash exchanges To curb the excessive growth of the cash exchange rate, the regulator held consultations with market participants, and on November 3, it conducted an exchange of non-cash bank currency for cash to replenish bank tills. According to NBU data, the total supply in this transaction amounted to $100 million, while the actual demand from banks proved to be $14 million. Similar exchanges were conducted on November 4 and are planned for November 5. The NBU states that bank applications were fully met, which means “there are no economic reasons for the increase in the difference between the official rate and the foreign currency selling rate by financial institutions.” ### Reserves and interventions: how much has the NBU spent During the work week of October 26–30, the National Bank conducted a record intervention in the interbank foreign exchange market, selling $1.8 billion. At the same time, the regulator's gold and foreign exchange reserves stand at $47.1 billion, and by the end of the year, according to the NBU's own forecast, they could grow to over $60 billion. Kozak believes that by allowing a sharp devaluation, the regulator is spending reserves faster than it would if maintaining a moderate pace of weakening. In his assessment, the NBU had all the tools — from interventions to limiting currency purchases for non-critical needs — to prevent the jump to 45.6 hryvnias. ### What comes next Against the backdrop of a record official rate and the ongoing gap with the cash market, the key question remains the pace of further devaluation. If the NBU continues its strategy of “smoothing peaks” through targeted interventions, the rate may stabilize near current levels. However, if the structural deficit of currency supply (ports, exports) and high demand from businesses and the public persist, pressure on the hryvnia is likely to remain elevated in the coming weeks. ## Accounts differ ### Reasons for the gap between official and cash rates and assessment of NBU actions - **Taras Kozak, President of Univer Investment Group:** A one-hryvnia gap between the official rate and exchange offices indicates that the NBU allowed panic to ensue and could have prevented the sharp jump using reserves and other instruments ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/kurs-dolara-syagae-rekordiv-chi-diysno-buv-1793879998.html)) - **National Bank of Ukraine:** Demand for cash currency grew due to seasonal factors and renewed limits; individual market participants excessively raised quotes; cash exchanges on Nov 3–5 showed there are no economic reasons for the gap ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/kurs-dolara-syagae-rekordiv-chi-diysno-buv-1793879998.html)) *Where they agree:* In the second half of October, the official rate rose to 45.67 UAH, and the NBU carried out interventions and cash exchanges to stabilize the retail market ## Fact-Check & Sources - [Курс доллара достигает рекордов. Действительно ли был ажиотаж на валюту и как реагирует НБУ](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/kurs-dolara-syagae-rekordiv-chi-diysno-buv-1793879998.html) - Source: All figures (45.67 UAH, 45.6 UAH, 44.6 UAH, $1.8B intervention, $47.1B reserves, $14M/$100M cash exchange) and quotes from Kozak and the NBU are taken from this material. ## FAQ ### What is the official dollar rate in Ukraine as of November 4, 2026? 45.67 hryvnias per dollar, which is an all-time record for the official rate. ### Why does the NBU believe there are no grounds for concern regarding the gap between official and cash rates? The regulator notes that on November 3, it offered banks $100 million in cash, while demand was only $14 million. The applications were fully met; thus, according to the NBU, there are no economic reasons for the elevated cash rate. ### How many dollars did the NBU sell on the interbank market during the week of October 26–30? $1.8 billion, marking a record weekly intervention. ### What are Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves? As of the end of October 2026, they stood at $47.1 billion. The NBU expects them to grow to over $60 billion by the end of the year.