--- title: "Earth Is Warming Faster Than Forecasts: WMO Declares the Start of the «Era of Climate Extremes»" description: "The WMO has published a report: Earth is accumulating heat faster than anticipated, and 2026 will rank among the four hottest years on record. Scientists warn of the beginning of the «era of climate extremes»." date: 2026-11-09T23:10:03.471Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/earth-warming-faster-forecasts-era-climate-extremes tags: [climate-change, wmo, cop31, global-warming, el-nino, ocean-temperature, glaciers] author: "Alexander Buran" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Earth Is Warming Faster Than Forecasts: WMO Declares the Start of the «Era of Climate Extremes» ## Key Points - Earth's energy imbalance has reached a record high in observational history, and 2026 will be among the four hottest years - The 1.5 °C warming threshold will be permanently breached in 2028, and the 2 °C threshold in the late 2030s - Global glaciers have lost over 400 billion tons of mass, with shrinkage recorded for the fourth consecutive year across all 19 monitored regions - The current El Niño phase could prove to be the strongest in the past thousand years The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has published a report recording an acceleration in the rate of heat accumulation on the planet. The document was released on November 9, 2026—on the opening day of the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, where representatives of participating countries are discussing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the consequences of global warming. According to WMO data, the imbalance between energy coming from the Sun and energy leaving Earth has reached its highest level in observational history. This means the planet is retaining more and more energy that used to escape into space, and meteorologists conclude that this exact process will lead to an intensification of extreme weather events—heatwaves, droughts, and tropical cyclones. ### Four Record-Breaking Years in a Row and a Ten-Year Maximum in the Ocean According to the report, 2026 will rank among the four hottest years since systematic research began, and the period from 2023 to 2026 will mark four consecutive years of record heat. The ocean absorbs 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, and 2026 is likely to be the tenth consecutive year of record-high sea water temperatures. The WMO emphasizes that these changes are practically irreversible on a scale of hundreds and thousands of years. The average global temperature for the first nine months of the current year was 1.47 °C above pre-industrial levels. ### The 1.5 °C Threshold Will Be Permanently Breached as Early as 2028 Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus at University College London, commenting on the report's data for the British newspaper The Guardian, stated that recent research shows the 1.5 °C warming threshold will be permanently crossed in 2028. «Since the planet is now warming at an extraordinary rate—0.4 °C per decade—we can expect the 2 °C threshold to be significantly exceeded by the late 2030s», the scientist noted. McGuire also believes that widespread projections of global temperature increases of 2.6–2.8 °C by the end of the 21st century may now prove to be «overly optimistic». ### Super-Strong El Niño Exacerbates the Picture An additional factor contributing to accelerated warming is the fluctuation of surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean—El Niño. According to expert forecasts, the current phase of this phenomenon could prove to be the strongest in the last thousand years. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, commenting on the report's publication, stated: «We have entered a new era of climate extremes. A super-powered El Niño is colliding with a planet already overheated by human-induced climate change. Climate records continue to be broken, human losses are mounting, and those least responsible for what is happening are suffering first and most severely». ### Glaciers Lose More Than 400 Billion Tons of Mass The WMO also recorded a record high global sea level. In Antarctica, the maximum sea ice extent this year was one of the lowest on record, while in the Arctic, the figure reached a historic low. Overall, glaciers worldwide have lost more than 400 billion tons of mass: glacier shrinkage has been recorded for the fourth consecutive year across all 19 regions monitored by the WMO. These data complement the picture of irreversible changes to which, according to the organization's assessment, the planet will have to adapt over the centuries. ### Context: COP31 and the UN Framework Convention The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed in 1992 and has since served as the basis for international climate dialogue. The COP31 conference, which opened on November 9 in Antalya, takes place against the backdrop of data characterized by the WMO as unprecedented in speed and scale. The publication of the report on the opening day of the summit underscores the urgency of the discussions: participating countries must agree on concrete mechanisms for emission reduction and adaptation financing, while scientific data indicate that the window to keep warming within safe limits is rapidly closing. ## Fact-Check & Sources - ["Мы вошли в новую эпоху климатических экстремумов": Земля нагревается быстрее, чем предполагалось](https://www.dw.com/ru/doklad-zemla-nagrevaetsa-bystree-tempy-nakoplenia-tepla-uskorautsa/a-79902762) - WMO report published on Nov 9, 2026. Data on energy imbalance, 1.47 °C temperature, 1.5 and 2 °C threshold projections, glacier mass loss, and ocean records match the report text. Quotes from McGuire and Guterres are sourced from The Guardian via DW. ## FAQ ### What report did the WMO publish on November 9, 2026? The WMO published a report on Earth's heat accumulation, documenting record levels of energy imbalance and accelerated warming rates. The document was released on the opening day of COP31 in Antalya. ### When is the 1.5 °C threshold projected to be permanently breached? According to an assessment by Professor Bill McGuire (UCL) based on WMO data, the 1.5 °C threshold will be permanently breached in 2028, and the 2 °C threshold will be significantly exceeded by the late 2030s. ### How much mass have the world's glaciers lost? According to the WMO, glaciers worldwide have lost more than 400 billion tons of mass. Shrinkage has been recorded for the fourth consecutive year across all 19 regions monitored by the organization. ### What is the «era of climate extremes»? This is a term used by UN Secretary-General António Guterres to describe the current situation: a super-powered El Niño is overlapping with an already overheated planet, leading to the continuous breaking of climate records and rising human tolls.