---
title: "El Niño Is Intensifying 'Before Our Eyes': WMO Forecasts the Most Powerful Phenomenon in a Thousand Years and New Temperature Records"
description: "The WMO and the UN warn: El Niño is intensifying and could become the most powerful in a thousand years. The ocean anomaly is already 2.6°C, and by November it may reach 4°C; the consequences will affect harvests, water resources, and food security."
date: 2026-09-04T03:56:01.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/el-nino-intensifying-temperature-records-2026
tags: [el-nino, climate-change, un, wmo, global-warming, extreme-weather, food-security]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# El Niño Is Intensifying 'Before Our Eyes': WMO Forecasts the Most Powerful Phenomenon in a Thousand Years and New Temperature Records

![Misting cooling system in a city park during extreme heat driven by El Nino](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/04/el-nino-usilivaetsya-temperaturnye-rekordy-2026/el-nino-usilivaetsya-temperaturnye-rekordy-2026-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- The WMO assesses the current El Niño as potentially the most powerful in the last 1,000 years.
- Ocean temperature in the formation zone is already 2.6°C above the 30-year norm, and by November the anomaly may reach around 4°C.
- The phenomenon is forecast to last until February 2027, and its consequences — droughts, floods, heat — will persist throughout 2027.
- The WFP warns of the threat of acute hunger for around 50 million people; fires in Indonesia and weakened monsoons in India are already being recorded.

The El Niño climate phenomenon, according to assessments by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is rapidly gaining strength and is highly likely to cause new temperature records. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that the phenomenon is "growing right before our eyes," while the planet has found itself in "unchartered waters" that continue to warm. Preliminary WMO estimates suggest that the current cycle could be the most powerful in at least the last thousand years — making the situation unprecedented in terms of the instrumentally observed climate history.

### Figures That Are Alarming

Specific WMO data show that ocean temperature in the El Niño formation zone already exceeds the 30-year reference average by 2.6°C. Moreover, by November 2026 the anomaly is forecast to reach around 4°C. For comparison: it is precisely the exceedance of threshold anomaly values in the equatorial Pacific that determines the transition of the phenomenon from a neutral phase to a full El Niño phase, while its further growth places the cycle in the "strong" and "super El Niño" categories, which is directly linked to a global rise in average temperature and an increase in extreme weather events.

### How Long the Phenomenon Will Last and What Comes Next

According to meteorologists' forecasts, the current El Niño cycle is expected to persist until February 2027. It is important to understand, however, that the consequences of the climate phenomenon do not end with it: droughts, floods, and waves of extreme heat will continue to be felt well into 2027. This means that even after the phenomenon itself weakens, its "tail" will continue to affect the hydrological regime, water resources, and the agricultural cycle in a number of regions of the world.

### Consequences Are Already Being Felt Worldwide

The impact of the strengthening El Niño is already being recorded: from large-scale forest fires in Indonesia to weakened monsoon rains in India, which threaten harvests and the water balance in some of the most populous countries on the planet. The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that, due to El Niño, around 50 million people could face acute hunger. Thus, the climate phenomenon is turning into a factor of food security and humanitarian pressure on vulnerable regions.

### Impact on Ukraine's Agriculture

Weather contrasts and temperature "swings" associated with heat waves and moisture deficits are already affecting the agricultural sector: as Ukrainian media noted, they have influenced both the ripening of late crops and the preparation for winter sowing. For a country where agriculture is a key industry of the economy, the combination of local weather anomalies with the global strengthening of El Niño creates additional risks for yields and the logistics of the 2026–2027 sowing campaign.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [Will the summer heat last into autumn and winter? The UN warned of dangerous phenomena](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/litnya-speka-prodovzhitsya-voseni-i-vzimku-1788492161.html) - Подтверждает предупреждение ООН об опасных климатических явлениях и их продолжение в осенне-зимний период.
- [Super El Niño: The UN warns of impending anomalous heat and new natural disasters](https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cvgyprz2dq5o) - Сообщает о квалификации явления как «супер-Эль-Ниньо» и прогнозе аномальной жары и стихийных бедствий.
- [The UN forecasts a strengthening of El Niño in the coming months](https://tass.ru/obschestvo/28074703) - Подтверждает прогноз ООН об усилении Эль-Ниньо в ближайшие месяцы.
- [El Niño could lead to anomalous heat in Russia](https://www.teleport2001.ru/news/2026-09-04/218627-el-nino-mozhet-privesti-k-anomalnoy-zhare-v-rossii.html) - Дополнительный контекст о возможных последствиях для региона; относится к прогнозам, а не к подтверждённым событиям.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: How powerful could the current El Niño become?
**A:** According to WMO estimates, it could be the most powerful in at least the last thousand years; ocean temperature in the formation zone is already 2.6°C above the 30-year norm and may reach around 4°C by November.

### Q: How long will the phenomenon last and when will its consequences end?
**A:** The El Niño cycle is forecast to last until February 2027, however droughts, floods, and extreme heat will continue to be felt well into 2027.

### Q: What consequences are already being recorded?
**A:** Forest fires in Indonesia and weakened monsoons in India have already been recorded; the WFP warns that around 50 million people could face acute hunger.