---
title: "\"Months, not years\": European intelligence warned of a possible Russian test of NATO"
description: "European intelligence warned that Russia may test NATO's resilience in the coming months by using drones or missiles. The Baltic states call for restraint."
date: 2026-09-20T22:40:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/european-intelligence-warns-of-possible-russian-test-of-nato
tags: [nato, russia, europe-intelligence, article-5, hybrid-warfare, baltic-states]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# "Months, not years": European intelligence warned of a possible Russian test of NATO

![NATO soldier operates a portable air defense system on a pickup truck](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/21/evropeiskie-razvedki-dopuskayut-proverku-nato-rossiey/evropeiskie-razvedki-dopuskayut-proverku-nato-rossiey-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- European intelligence allows for the possibility that Russia may test NATO's resilience in the coming months — from drones and missiles to a limited incursion near the border.
- The Baltic states and Estonia call for restraint, pointing to Moscow's depleted resources and the absence of direct signs of an inevitable attack.
- Intelligence services agree that the sabotage campaign against infrastructure related to support for Ukraine will intensify in the coming months.

European security services have sharply intensified their rhetoric in recent weeks regarding potential escalation from Moscow. According to several intelligence chiefs, Russia may test NATO's resilience within the coming months — from the use of drones or missiles on alliance territory to a limited incursion near the Russian border. Alarms were heightened after statements by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in parliament: in his words, intelligence allows for the possibility that Moscow may use drones or missiles against NATO territory in the coming months to demonstrate that "Article 5 is more theoretical than practical." French President Emmanuel Macron called these warnings justified and convened an emergency meeting of party leaders in Paris.

### "Months, not years": the Czech intelligence scenario

The head of the Czech BIS service, Michal Koudelka, suggested that the Kremlin's plans may include a limited incursion into the territory of a NATO country located near Russia — including through provocations "under a false flag" or a large-scale information campaign. In his words, such a scenario is realistic "within months, not years," although, he emphasized, many parties are doing everything possible to avoid it. Koudelka also pointed to Moscow's goal: to pressure the weak points of Western societies in order to reduce the level of support for Ukraine — by his logic, sufficiently strong pressure should force Europeans to abandon aid to Kyiv.

### The Baltic sober view

The Baltic states, despite their direct borders with Russia, assess the situation more restrainedly. They point to Moscow's war-weakened resources and warn that excessive inflation of the threat itself plays into the Kremlin's hands. The head of the Latvian VDD, Normunds Mežviets, stated that he sees no direct signs of an inevitable attack, although, in his words, Moscow is clearly preparing for more decisive actions. The Estonian Foreign Ministry publicly criticized the "panic on social media" of recent days, calling for calm and continued support for Ukraine.

### From chaos to targeted objectives

All three intelligence chiefs whose statements are cited agree on one point: Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe will likely intensify in the coming months. Nilsson called the recent incident with a strike drone at Leipzig airport a "turning point." Mežviets added that Moscow is moving from chaotic arson to specific targets related to support for Ukraine — primarily railways and the defense industry. In Poland, it was noted that the Kremlin's main goal remains the destabilization of railways, bridges, and border zones, while Lithuania announced it had received intelligence on possible Russian preparation of "false flag" operations to test NATO's readiness to respond.

### Contradictory data

There are notable discrepancies in the assessments of different services, which are important to take into account. European intelligence (Czechia, Latvia, Poland) speaks of a "coming months" horizon and a test/deterrence scenario, while Baltic and Estonian officials urge not to inflate the threat and see no direct signs of an inevitable attack. In parallel, according to media reports, US intelligence provides more compressed and more "firm" forecasts — up to formulations of actions "within the coming weeks" and a possible attack already in the fall, with an emphasis on the goal of "splitting the alliance." Thus, the subjects of the assessments differ (European vs. American services), as do the time frames (months vs. weeks/fall) and the nature of the presumed action (limited test/provocation vs. a larger-scale attack). These inconsistencies reflect differing levels of anxiety and access to different intelligence channels, rather than a single confirmed fact of a planned attack.

### NATO's position

NATO has previously stated its readiness for any provocations and attacks by Russia: an alliance general emphasized that the organization is ready to respond to potential escalation on the eastern flank of Europe. The totality of statements indicates that Western capitals are simultaneously preparing for hybrid strikes on infrastructure supporting Ukraine and for a possible more serious provocation intended to test the collective defense mechanism.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [European intelligence warned of a possible Russian attack on NATO within months](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/rozvidki-evropi-poperedili-mozhlivu-ataku-1789941984.html) - Совпадает с основным текстом: европейские разведки, горизонт «в течение месяцев», сценарий проверки/атаки.
- [US intelligence believes Putin may "in the coming weeks send troops to capture ..."](https://inosmi.ru/20260808/nato-279608145.html) - Смежный, но отличающийся прогноз: субъект — американская разведка, срок «ближайшие недели», формулировка о захвате. Использован для раздела противоречий.
- [Putin may attack NATO as early as fall: US intelligence published a new forecast, - WSJ](https://www.unian.net/world/voyna-rossii-i-nato-razvedka-ssha-opublikovala-novyy-prognoz-wsj-13463061.html) - Альтернативный срок («уже осенью») и более «твердый» сценарий нападения по версии американской разведки (WSJ). Отражен как расхождение.
- ["The goal is to split the alliance." US intelligence suspected Russia of preparing an "attack" on NATO](https://www.gazeta.ru/army/2026/08/07/23360743.shtml) - Указывает на цель «раскол альянса» в оценке американской разведки; дополняет контекст мотивов, но отличается по субъекту и срокам от европейских оценок.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: When, according to European intelligence, is a Russian test of NATO possible?
**A:** The head of the Czech BIS service, Michal Koudelka, and other intelligence chiefs speak of a "coming months" horizon, not years, while noting that many parties are striving to avoid such an escalation.

### Q: What do the Baltic states say about this?
**A:** Latvia and Estonia call for restraint: the head of the Latvian VDD, Normunds Mežviets, sees no direct signs of an inevitable attack, while the Estonian Foreign Ministry criticized the "panic on social media," pointing to Moscow's depleted resources.

### Q: Are there discrepancies in the assessments of different countries?
**A:** Yes. European intelligence cites a timeframe of "months" and a test/deterrence scenario, while US intelligence, according to media reports, gives more compressed timeframes ("weeks," "fall") and a firmer scenario; this is reflected in the "Contradictory data" section.