--- title: "Expert: Controlled export of Ukrainian gas is a rational decision under the current balance" description: "Andrian Prokip, an expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, stated that the controlled export of part of Ukrainian gas under the current balance is a rational decision: imports have dropped 17.5 times, and the mechanism provides for the possibility of prompt suspension of supplies." date: 2026-11-07T12:34:58.292Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/export-ukrainian-gas-rational-decision tags: [ukraine-gas, energy-export, gas-storage, ukrainian-energy-market, gas-import] author: "Andrey Kosynko" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Expert: Controlled export of Ukrainian gas is a rational decision under the current balance ![Worker in hard hat turning a red valve on a yellow gas pipe](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/07/eksport-ukrainskogo-gaza-racionalnoe-reshenie/eksport-ukrainskogo-gaza-racionalnoe-reshenie-1.webp) ## Key Points - Gas imports to Ukraine during the injection period dropped 17.5 times compared to last year - 29 private companies sold 54.5 million cubic meters of gas for export through the Ukrainian Energy Exchange in October - The controlled export mechanism provides the possibility of prompt suspension of supplies in case of a deteriorating gas balance - For the pessimistic scenario, Ukraine has a separate financial reserve for gas procurement Andrian Prokip, head of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, stated that the controlled export of a portion of Ukrainian gas under the current balance is a normal and justified decision. According to him, domestic gas consumption has decreased, domestic production remained sufficient this year, and in the event of a deficit, Ukraine has the opportunity to purchase an additional resource using a separate financial reserve. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine. ### Imports dropped 17.5 times during the injection period Prokip noted that during the gas injection period—from the start of injection until the end of summer—Ukraine's import demand dropped sharply compared to last year. "If we take the injection period, until the end of summer, from the start of injection until the end of summer this year and compare it with last year, our imports dropped by about 17.5 times. Under various scenarios, we had enough gas," the expert emphasized. Thus, the domestic market in the summer and early autumn period was actually provided with its own resources without significant dependence on external supplies. ### Pessimistic scenario covered by financial reserve According to Prokip's assessment, the need for additional imports could arise primarily under a pessimistic scenario: a cold end to winter, new infrastructure shelling, and problems with gas withdrawal from underground storage facilities. For such a case, as the expert explained, Ukraine has a separate financial resource for purchasing gas. "We are essentially covering this scenario if a gas deficit arises," he stated, pointing to the existence of a safeguard mechanism in case of a balance deterioration. ### Analogy with canned meat and the economic logic of export Against the backdrop of excess resources in storage facilities, Prokip considers it inappropriate to keep all the gas inside the country when its price is significantly higher on the European market. The expert gave a vivid analogy: "Do we hold this gas like I held canned meat, which then—what to do with it? Or do we play it now and sell it, and all companies will make money." According to his logic, selling the excess resource at a higher price allows companies to generate income that can be channeled into infrastructure development and preparation for the next heating season. ### Safeguards of the mechanism: exports can be stopped at any moment An additional limitation of risks for the domestic market, according to Prokip, is the controlled export mechanism itself. If the gas balance situation deteriorates, supplies abroad can be promptly terminated. "Moreover, given that safeguards are provided, meaning at any moment it can be stopped if we have some expectation that something is starting to go wrong, it can be stopped. This is an absolutely normal step, in my opinion," the expert emphasized. Thus, the mechanism is not irreversible and complies with internal market needs. ### Actual volumes: 54.5 million cubic meters in October Earlier, the ExPro publication reported that in October, 29 private gas-producing companies had already used the controlled export mechanism. Through the "Ukrainian Energy Exchange," they sold 54.5 million cubic meters of gas for export. According to experts' assessments, such volumes are small compared to Ukraine's total consumption—less than consumption on a single peak winter day. This confirms that current exports do not pose a threat to the country's energy security and remain within limits that do not affect the internal balance. ## Fact-Check & Sources - [Эксперт объяснил, почему частичный экспорт газа является правильным решением](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/ekspert-poyasniv-chomu-chastkoviy-eksport-1794054417.html) - Andrian Prokip's statement about imports (a 17.5-fold drop), financial reserve, analogy with canned meat, and export mechanism safeguards. - [Частичный экспорт газа открыли в объемах меньше одного зимнего дня потребления, - эксперт](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/chastkoviy-eksport-gazu-vidkrili-obsyagah-1791811433.html) - Confirmation of export volume (54.5 million cubic meters) and comparison with consumption on a single peak winter day. ExPro data on 29 companies. ## FAQ ### What volume of gas did Ukraine export in October? Through the Ukrainian Energy Exchange, 29 private gas-producing companies sold 54.5 million cubic meters of gas for export. According to experts, this is less than Ukraine's consumption on a single peak winter day. ### What will happen if Ukraine's gas balance deteriorates during exports? The controlled export mechanism includes "safeguards": supplies abroad can be promptly terminated at any moment if a threat to the domestic market arises. In addition, Ukraine has a separate financial reserve for purchasing gas in case of a pessimistic scenario. ### How much has gas import to Ukraine decreased compared to last year? According to Andrian Prokip, during the injection period (from the start of injection to the end of summer), imports dropped by approximately 17.5 times compared to the same period last year.