---
title: "Fear of a New War: Why the EU Fears Russia May Strike NATO Within the Next 12 Months"
description: "Europe in panic: experts warn that Russia may strike NATO within the next 12 months to cover up failure in Ukraine and justify new mobilization. Fear of escalation grows against the backdrop of Trump's statements and the oil crisis. 🚨🌍"
date: 2026-05-27T09:45:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/fear-of-a-new-war-why-the-eu-fears-russia-may-strike-nato-within-the-next-12-months
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Fear of a New War: Why the EU Fears Russia May Strike NATO Within the Next 12 Months

![Vladimir Putin against a blue background, serious look, discussing geopolitical threats](https://xab.info/media/2026/05/27/strah-pered-novoy-voinoy-pochemu-ec-opasaetsya-chto-rossiya-udarit-po-nato/vladimir-putin-na-press-konferencii.webp)

Anxiety is growing in European capitals: experts fear that, having reached a stalemate in Ukraine, Russia may attempt to turn the tide by expanding the conflict onto the territory of the alliance itself. The Wall Street Journal reports this, citing intelligence data and senior officials.

According to analysts, Moscow may attempt to test NATO’s cohesion. Potential targets include not only the Baltic states but also Swedish or Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, as well as Arctic territories falling under the alliance’s area of responsibility.

### Risk Factors: From Trump to the Oil Crisis

The situation is exacerbated by internal instability in the US. Recent statements by Donald Trump regarding a possible withdrawal from NATO and a reduction of military presence in Europe create an illusion in the Kremlin of a weakening Western front. Furthermore, European officials fear that a new oil crisis, triggered by the conflict with Iran, could give impetus to far-right forces demanding the resumption of Russian energy purchases and the cessation of aid to Kyiv.

However, despite gloomy forecasts, intelligence data currently does not record the transfer of large Russian military units to the borders of the Baltic states. Rather, it is a matter of strategic calculation dictated by the current situation on the front.

### Showing Strength to Justify Mobilization

The main argument for escalation is human losses. Western intelligence estimates Russian army losses at 35,000 people per month. At such a rate, continuing the war without a new, total mobilization becomes impossible. But announcing mobilization is an admission that the war has dragged on and is not being won.

“If you simply mobilize, you send a signal that you will not win. Therefore, they need to escalate the situation to justify this step,” notes Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs. According to her, this is an extremely dangerous moment when Putin’s actions may be dictated by the need to change the linearity of the conflict.

### A Risk That Could Turn Into Collapse

Despite the idea of expanding the war seeming tempting as a way out of a stalemate, many experts call it suicidal. Kaupo Rõõm, Director of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, emphasizes that mobilization will create a colossal internal social explosion, the consequences of which could be unpredictable for the regime.

Norbert Röttgen, a prominent German politician, believes that adding a powerful opponent in the form of NATO to the conflict is a huge risk that Putin may not calculate. “After failures against Ukraine, entering a fight with an even stronger opponent is madness,” he concludes.

Nevertheless, Europe is already preparing for the worst. Germany has officially recognized Russia as the main security threat, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warns that a strike on NATO could follow not in years, but in the coming months. For now, the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine considers many provocations—from aircraft incursions to statements about the capture of Kaliningrad—as part of an information war designed to incite panic.