---
title: "Potatoes rose in price by 13.6% in a month: experts forecast food price trends in Ukraine until the end of 2026"
description: "Following the harvest in Ukraine, food prices are starting to rise: potatoes went up by 13.6% in a month, and by the end of 2026, experts expect increases in dairy products, eggs, bread, and greenhouse vegetables. No deficit is forecasted due to excess supply."
date: 2026-10-30T08:04:29.936Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/food-prices-in-ukraine-end-2026
tags: [ukraine, food-prices, inflation, agriculture, potatoes, dairy-products]
author: "Darya Fomina"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Potatoes rose in price by 13.6% in a month: experts forecast food price trends in Ukraine until the end of 2026

![A woman next to a basket of vegetables, a receipt, and illustrations of destruction and logistics thinks about food price increases](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/30/tseny-na-produkty-v-ukraine-do-kontsa-2026/tseny-na-produkty-v-ukraine-do-kontsa-2026-1.webp)

## Key Points

- The average retail price of potatoes in October rose to UAH 17.23/kg (+13.6% compared to September, +11% compared to last October); UCAB forecasts UAH 19–23/kg by the end of the year.
- Borscht-set vegetables are rising in price unevenly: cabbage +10.6%, beets +14.4%, carrots -10.3%, onions unchanged.
- The highest risks of price increases until the end of 2026 are dairy products (fresh up to +20–25%), eggs, bakery products, and greenhouse vegetables.
- No deficit is expected: a food surplus remains on the market due to restricted exports through sea ports; "black swans" — strikes on energy and logistics — remain the main risk.

Following the completion of the active harvesting campaign, the usual seasonal turning point is beginning on the Ukrainian food market: prices that dropped at the peak of harvesting are starting to reverse upwards. According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB), the average retail price of potatoes in September was UAH 15.17/kg, and in October it rose to UAH 17.23/kg — an increase of 13.6% in a month. Compared to last October, the cost has increased by approximately 11%. Maksym Hopka, head of the analytical department at UCAB, explains that this dynamic is traditional: after mass harvesting concludes, the volumes of produce available for immediate sale decrease, and part of the harvest is placed in storage, which automatically raises producers' costs.

### Baseline scenario: potatoes up to UAH 23/kg, vegetables show mixed trends

Under the UCAB baseline scenario, assuming no significant product losses during storage, the average retail price of potatoes could reach approximately UAH 19–23/kg by the end of the year. The situation with borscht-set vegetables is currently mixed: in October compared to September, cabbage went up in price by 10.6% and beets by 14.4%, while carrots decreased in price by 10.3%, and the price of onions remained practically unchanged. Analysts point out that the cost of individual crops depends not only on seasonality, but also on the quality of the harvest and storage capabilities.

### Where price increase risks are highest: dairy, eggs, bread, and greenhouse vegetables

With the transition from selling freshly harvested produce to sales from storage facilities, producers' costs are growing, and amid unstable energy supplies, this curbs any generalized price reduction. Experts expect that prices will continue to rise until the end of the year, but unevenly. The highest risks of price increases are seen in the segments of chicken eggs, dairy products, bakery items, and greenhouse vegetables. According to an assessment by the Association of Milk Producers, by the end of 2026, fresh dairy goods — milk, kefir, sour cream, yogurts — may rise in price by 20–25%, while a more moderate growth within 5–10% is expected for cottage cheese and butter. Additional pressure is created by increased costs for fertilizers, fuel, electricity, feed, packaging, and logistics, as well as attacks on infrastructure.

### "Black swans" and market balance: the main safeguard against a sharp spike

Oleh Pendzin, a member of the Economic Discussion Club, emphasizes that overall, an excess of supply remains on the market, and pricing depends entirely on the balance of demand and buyers' purchasing power. He calls the uncertainty factor — the so-called "black swans" — the key risk to the projected scenario: repeated massive shelling of critical energy infrastructure or logistics centers. In the absence of force majeure, he says, market balance acts as the main safeguard against a sharp price increase: any price on the shelf is the ratio of supply and demand.

### No deficit expected: food surplus due to restricted exports

Pendzin notes that there are significant issues with the population's solvent demand, as citizens' real incomes are not growing, and forecasts: "Practically across all positions there will be price growth, and somewhere, conditionally, in May of next year, you and I will see a reverse seasonal process that will start pushing prices back down." At the same time, specialists point out that Ukraine retains a huge food surplus due to limited export opportunities through sea ports, so there are no prerequisites for a deficit or extreme price spikes due to a lack of goods. Thus, until the end of 2026, consumers should expect a moderate but uneven rise in prices for certain food categories without the risk of an acute deficit.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Что будет с ценами на продукты в Украине: чего ждать до конца 2026 года](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/shcho-bude-tsinami-produkti-ukrayini-chogo-1793286209.html) - Primary source: potato prices (15.17 → 17.23 UAH/kg), dynamics of borscht-set vegetables, UCAB forecast of 19–23 UAH/kg, comments by Hopka and Pendzin, assessment of supply surplus.
- [Не только молоко, кефир и йогурты: что будет с ценами на продукты до конца года и далее](https://focus.ua/economics/772258-ceny-na-moloko-v-ukraine-vyrastut-na-20-25-kakie-eshche-produkty-podorozhayut) - Association of Milk Producers forecast: fresh dairy goods +20–25% by the end of 2026, cottage cheese/butter +5–10%; cost factors.
- [Популярный среди украинцев продукт может резко подорожать: что будет с ценами в 2027 году](https://www.obozrevatel.com/section-ekonomika-glavnaya/fea/news-populyarnyy-sered-ukrayintsiv-produkt-mozhe-rizko-zdorozhchaty-shcho-bude-z-tsinamy-u-2027-rotsi-25-10-2026.html) - Context on the meat segment: African swine fever, purchase prices for live pigs at 72–73 UAH/kg for the week of Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026.
- [Цены на крупы в Украине: подорожают ли гречка, рис и пшено к Новому году](https://fakty.com.ua/ru/ukraine/ekonomika/20261012-tsiny-na-krupy-v-ukrayini-chy-podorozhchayut-grechka-rys-ta-pshono-do-novogo-roku/) - Additional context on groats prices for October 2026 and the forecast until the end of the year.

## FAQ

### How much do potatoes cost in Ukraine in October 2026?

According to UCAB, the average retail price of potatoes in October 2026 was UAH 17.23/kg — 13.6% higher than September's UAH 15.17/kg and about 11% higher than in October of last year.

### Will food prices rise until the end of 2026?

Experts expect further, albeit uneven, price growth. The highest risks of price increases are in the segments of chicken eggs, dairy products, bakery items, and greenhouse vegetables.

### How much can dairy products rise in price?

According to the Association of Milk Producers, by the end of 2026, fresh dairy goods (milk, kefir, sour cream, yogurts) may rise in price by 20–25%, and cottage cheese and butter by 5–10%.

### Is Ukraine facing a food deficit?

No. Specialists point out that a huge food surplus remains on the market due to limited export opportunities through sea ports, so there are no prerequisites for a deficit or extreme price spikes due to a lack of goods.

### What is the main risk for the price forecast?

Experts call the uncertainty factor — "black swans", in particular repeated massive shelling of critical energy infrastructure or logistics centers — the main risk.