---
title: "Dollar to 45 hryvnia, euro — to 52.5: what awaits Ukraine's currency market on September 14–20"
description: "According to Globus Bank's forecast, on September 14–20 the dollar on Ukraine's cash market will be worth 44.5–45 UAH, and the euro — 51–52.5 UAH. The NBU may spend up to 1 billion dollars on interventions, while \"war inflation\" may push prices on certain goods up by 10%."
date: 2026-09-12T04:32:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/forecast-currency-rates-ukraine-14-20-september-2026-en
tags: [ukraine-currency, usd-uah-exchange-rate, nbu-interventions, war-inflation, globus-bank, eurexchange-rate]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Dollar to 45 hryvnia, euro — to 52.5: what awaits Ukraine's currency market on September 14–20

![Stock exchange ticker with currency rates over a US dollar bill — dollar and euro forecast for Ukraine, Sept 14–20](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/12/prognoz-kursa-valyut-ukraina-14-20-sentyabrya-2026/prognoz-kursa-valyut-ukraina-14-20-sentyabrya-2026-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- The dollar on Ukraine's cash market on September 14–20 is forecast within the 44.5–45 UAH corridor, and on the interbank — 44.4–44.8 UAH
- The euro will have a wider range: 51–52.5 UAH on both market segments
- The NBU may direct about 0.8–1 billion dollars to interventions to maintain the balance of supply and demand
- "War inflation" may lead to a 5–10% price increase on certain goods and services in September
- Average weekly rate deviations are expected within 1–1.5% of the starting value

The Ukrainian currency market during the period from September 14 to 20, 2026 is expected, according to experts, to remain relatively stable. Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank, told RBC-Ukraine that the dollar on the cash market could reach up to 45 hryvnia, while the euro, due to its dependence on global quotes, will have a wider range of fluctuations. The market's outward calm, he said, is the result of the National Bank's managed flexibility policy, which prevents accumulated currency demand from turning into an uncontrolled movement of the exchange rate.

### Dollar: a narrow corridor on the interbank and cash markets

According to Taras Lesovoy's forecast, next week the dollar rate on the interbank market will fluctuate within the range of 44.4–44.8 UAH per dollar. On the cash market, the allowable corridor will be 44.5–45 UAH. Daily rate changes on the interbank may reach 0.05–0.15 UAH, at commercial banks — 0.1–0.2 UAH, and at exchange offices — up to 0.3 UAH. The difference between buying and selling rates (the spread) on the interbank will be up to 0.15 UAH per dollar, at commercial banks — up to 0.5–0.6 UAH, and at exchange offices — up to 0.6–1 UAH. The average difference between interbank and cash market rates is forecast at 0.1–0.15 UAH.

### Euro: a wider room for movement

Unlike the dollar, the euro will have a noticeably wider room for movement. Both on the interbank and on the cash market, the euro rate is forecast within the range of 51–52.5 UAH. The interbank spread for the euro will be up to 0.2 UAH, at commercial banks — up to 0.8–1 UAH, and at exchange offices — up to 1–1.3 UAH. The average difference between buying rates on the cash market will be 0.3–0.5 UAH per euro at banks and 0.5–0.7 UAH at exchange offices. The wider range is explained by the euro rate's dependence on dynamics at global currency venues, where volatility is traditionally higher than for the dollar.

### NBU interventions and the structural currency deficit

Next week, the need for National Bank interventions will remain significant. According to a preliminary estimate, the regulator may direct about 0.8–1 billion dollars to maintain the balance between supply and demand. Active demand from importers will persist on the interbank, primarily from companies purchasing fuel and energy equipment. As the autumn–winter period approaches, the need for critical imported goods is unlikely to decrease. Meanwhile, the possibilities of Ukrainian exports in wartime conditions remain limited, and natural currency inflows are insufficient to fully cover demand. Part of this gap is forced to be covered by the National Bank from its own reserves.

### "War inflation": prices may rise even with a stable rate

The expert drew attention to an important nuance: despite the relative stability of the exchange rate, the cost of goods and services in Ukraine may rise under the influence of other factors. This refers to the consequences of missile and drone attacks, losses at enterprises, the restructuring of logistics, spending on energy independence, risk insurance, reserve routes and equipment. All of this forms so-called "war inflation," when businesses build into prices not only the damage already incurred but also possible future expenses. According to Lesovoy's forecast, in September price growth on certain commodity markets and in the services sector may reach about 5%, and in the event of a supply shortage due to force majeure circumstances — up to 10%.

### Risks and limitations of the forecast

Taras Lesovoy emphasized that in wartime conditions any currency forecast involves many conditions. The situation may change due to new attacks, losses of energy or logistics capacity, and other unforeseen circumstances. However, under current conditions, the currency market during the period from September 14 to 20 is unlikely, in the expert's assessment, to go beyond the already established trends. Average weekly deviations are expected within 1–1.5% of the week's starting rate. The analyst stresses that the data provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments carry risk, including the possibility of total loss of capital, and it is recommended to consult a licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [A calm dollar and a shifting euro: rate forecast for next week](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/spokiyniy-dolar-i-minliviy-evro-prognoz-kursu-1789159151.html) - Первичный источник прогноза Тараса Лесового. Все числовые данные (коридоры курса, спреды, объём интервенций, оценка инфляции) взяты из этого материала.
- [NBU lowered the official dollar and euro rates for September 12](https://minfin.com.ua/2026/09/11/181464538/) - Контекстный источник: подтверждает факт снижения официального курса НБУ на 12 сентября, что согласуется с общей динамикой рынка, описанной в прогнозе.
- [Dollar and euro sharply lose ground: new currency rates for September 14](https://glavred.info/economics/dollar-i-evro-rezko-teryayut-pozicii-novyy-kurs-valyut-na-14-sentyabrya-10795898.html) - Контекстный источник: фиксирует движение курса на 14 сентября. Формулировка «резко теряют позиции» может создавать впечатление более сильной волатильности, чем прогнозирует Лесовой, однако речь идёт об однодневном изменении в рамках недельного коридора.
- [Currency rates for September 14: how much the dollar, euro and zloty will cost](https://tsn.ua/ru/groshi/kurs-valyut-na-14-sentyabrya-skolko-budut-stoit-dollar-evro-i-zlotyy-3166646.html) - Контекстный источник: операционный обзор курсов на 14 сентября, включая злотый. Используется для подтверждения актуальности данных на дату публикации.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: How much will the dollar cost on Ukraine's cash market from September 14 to 20, 2026?
**A:** According to the forecast by Taras Lesovoy of Globus Bank, the dollar on the cash market will be within the range of 44.5–45 hryvnia. On the interbank market the corridor will be 44.4–44.8 UAH.

### Q: What euro rate is expected next week?
**A:** The euro is forecast in the range of 51–52.5 hryvnia both on the interbank and on the cash market. The wider range compared to the dollar is explained by its dependence on global quotes.

### Q: How many dollars may the NBU spend on interventions?
**A:** According to a preliminary estimate, the National Bank may direct about 0.8–1 billion dollars to maintaining the balance of supply and demand during the period of September 14–20.

### Q: Why may prices in Ukraine rise even if the dollar rate is stable?
**A:** Experts speak of "war inflation": businesses build into prices the consequences of attacks, the restructuring of logistics, spending on energy independence and risk insurance. In September, price growth on certain goods and services may reach 5%, and in the event of a supply shortage — up to 10%.

### Q: How accurate is the rate forecast in wartime conditions?
**A:** The analyst stresses that any currency forecast in wartime conditions involves many conditions. The situation may change due to new attacks or infrastructure losses. Nevertheless, average weekly deviations are expected within 1–1.5% of the starting rate.