---
title: "Fuel Crisis in Russia: Ukrainian Intelligence Reveals the Reality Behind Official Rhetoric"
description: "Ukrainian intelligence has revealed the real state of fuel in Russia: shortages, rising prices, and administrative redistribution of reserves. Official rhetoric about stabilization does not correspond to reality. 🛢️📉 #Russia #FuelCrisis #Economy"
date: 2026-07-18T10:32:01.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/fuel-crisis-in-russia-ukrainian-intelligence-reveals-the-reality-behind-official-rhetoric
tags: [russia, fuel-crisis, ukraine-intelligence, economy, kremlin]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Fuel Crisis in Russia: Ukrainian Intelligence Reveals the Reality Behind Official Rhetoric

![Queue of cars at a Rosneft gas station in Russia — visual evidence of the fuel crisis reported by Ukrainian intelligence](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/18/toplivnyy-krizis-v-rossii-razvedka-ukrainy-raskryla-realnuyu-situatsiyu/toplivnyy-krizis-v-rossii-razvedka-ukrainy-raskryla-realnuyu-situatsiyu-1.webp)

Russian authorities continue to convince the population that the fuel crisis is receding. Kremlin-controlled media regularly report on increased supplies of petroleum products, the partial lifting of restrictions at gas stations, and an improvement in the situation in several regions, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. However, data from the Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR) of Ukraine indicates that the real picture in the Russian fuel market differs significantly from official rhetoric.

### Administrative Redistribution Instead of Production Growth

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the so-called "improvement" in certain regions of Russia is not related to the restoration of production volumes, but to the administrative redistribution of existing fuel reserves between territories and categories of consumers. This allows for a temporary smoothing of shortages in some areas at the expense of others, creating an illusion of stabilization.

The most difficult situation, according to SZR data, persists in the Tambov, Astrakhan, Kirov, Penza, Voronezh, Rostov, Volgograd, Orenburg, and Yaroslavl regions, as well as in the Perm Krai, Chuvashia, Mordovia, and Udmurtia. Signs of stabilization are not yet forecasted for these regions.

### Rising Prices and Supply Shortage

The deepening of the crisis is confirmed by the dynamics of gasoline prices. From July 1 to July 10, the average cost of AI-92 fuel at Russian gas stations rose to 64.5 rubles per liter — this is 20% higher than a year ago. AI-95 gasoline increased to 77.5 rubles (+24%), while premium AI-98 reached 119.5 rubles per liter (+32%).

The main cause of the shortage remains the reduction in production following damage to Russian oil refineries. In July, gasoline output fell to approximately 71,500 tons per day, whereas the average summer demand is around 110,000 tons. Thus, Russian refineries meet only about 65% of domestic demand, with the shortage reaching nearly 38,500 tons per day, or 35% of total consumption.

### Kremlin Strategy: Adapting to a Prolonged Crisis

"Everything points to the fact that the Kremlin is preparing not for overcoming the crisis, but for its prolonged existence. The main goal of the regime is not the resumption of full supply in the market, but preventing stoppages in strategically important sectors," the SZR emphasized.

In the opinion of Ukrainian intelligence, statements about the normalization of the situation are primarily informational in nature. They are intended to create an impression of stability, although the gap between official rhetoric and the actual state of the fuel market continues to grow.

### Economic Consequences Extend Beyond Fuel Shortages

Russia's economic problems are increasingly extending beyond fuel shortages and encompassing other spheres. Previously, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that against the backdrop of record war spending, Russia is facing a growing budget deficit, inflation, and the depletion of financial resources. This creates additional risks for the stability of the country's entire economy.