--- title: "Global food prices hit a record high since 2022: heatwaves, El Niño and the war in the Black Sea" description: "The FAO food price index reached 133.3 points in August — the highest since November 2022. The rise is driven by heat in Europe, El Niño in Asia and reduced grain supplies from Ukraine amid attacks in the Black Sea." date: 2026-09-05T01:52:02.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/global-food-prices-record-fao-2026 tags: [food-prices, fao, grain, ukraine, inflation, black-sea] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Global food prices hit a record high since 2022: heatwaves, El Niño and the war in the Black Sea ![Shopper with a cart in a supermarket aisle stocked with grains and breakfast cereals amid record global food prices](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/05/mirovye-ceny-na-produkty-rekord-fao-2026/mirovye-ceny-na-produkty-rekord-fao-2026-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - The FAO food price index in August 2026 stood at 133.3 points, up from 130.8 in July — the highest since November 2022. - All categories rose in price: cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy products. - The causes are heat in Europe, El Niño in Asia, reduced grain supplies from Ukraine and tension around fertilizers. - The FAO lowered its forecast for global grain production in 2026 to 2.98 billion tonnes — the biggest decline since 2018. - In Ukraine, the production and warehouse facilities of food enterprises were hit; the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food sees no reason for panic. Global food prices in August 2026 rose to their highest level since late 2022. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the food price index for the previous month stood at 133.3 points, up from 130.8 in July. Analysts link the spike to the overlap of several factors: extreme heat in Europe, the expected El Niño in Asia, and the ongoing war in the Black Sea, which is hitting grain logistics. ### A four-year record: what the FAO index shows The August figure was the highest since November 2022, although it remains 17% below the record peak of March 2022, recorded immediately after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. All key categories rose in price — cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy products. "The August rise in global food prices is a warning that the risk premium is returning to food markets: climate shocks, geopolitical tension and disrupted trade logistics are coinciding in time," said FAO Chief Economist Maxim Torero. ### Climate and geopolitics: a double blow to markets Extreme heat in Europe hit the corn and sugar beet harvests, while the expected strengthening of El Niño is fuelling concerns about palm oil and sugar production in Asia. At the same time, the escalation of Russian attacks in the Black Sea has reduced grain shipments from Ukraine, while tensions in US–Iran relations are weighing on fertilizer supplies. Thus, the same market is simultaneously affected by climatic, logistical and geopolitical factors, which multiplies price volatility. ### Grain forecast: the biggest decline since 2018 The FAO also lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2026 to 2.98 billion tonnes — 2% less than in the previous year. This is the largest annual decline since 2018, although in absolute terms the volume will still be the second largest in the entire history of observations. The combination of a lowered harvest forecast with rising prices forms a classic picture of supply contraction, which traditionally drives up prices on world exchanges. ### Ukraine: strikes on production and shelf prices For Ukraine, the situation is complicated by direct strikes on food production. This summer, Russian attacks hit the distribution facilities of food producers — in particular Danone, Lactalis and the Yagotyn baby food dairy plant; due to destroyed warehouses, businesses warned of supply disruptions. On 27–28 August, a number of enterprises were hit — from "Epitsentr" to "Khortytsia." The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food had earlier noted that prices on the domestic market are holding for now and there is no reason for shelf panic, but further developments depend directly on the resilience of export logistics and production capacity. ### Contradictory data Publications by different outlets show discrepancies in how the record period is phrased. Most sources and the FAO's own data indicate that the August figure is the highest since November 2022 (i.e. about four years ago), which matches the headlines of RBC-Ukraine and Finam. At the same time, a number of materials (for example, a review on oleoscope.com) characterize the price level as a "maximum in a year and a half." The difference is probably due to the fact that some outlets count the period from a different intermediate peak or use a different comparison methodology. Relying on the FAO's primary data, the XAB.info editorial team goes by the phrasing "since late 2022." ## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification - [Global food prices have risen to a four-year high: the cause also lies in Ukraine](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/tsini-produkti-sviti-zrosli-maksimumu-chotiri-1788572076.html) - Совпадает с данными ФАО: максимум с конца 2022 года, причины включают ситуацию в Украине. - [FAO global food barometer: prices at a maximum in a year and a half](https://oleoscope.com/news/mirovoj-prodovolstvennyj-barometr-fao-ceny/) - Подтверждает рост цен по барометру ФАО, но формулирует период как «полтора года», что расходится с данными ФАО (с ноября 2022 года). - [Global food prices have jumped to their highest level since 2022](https://www.finam.ru/publications/item/mirovye-tseny-na-prodovolstvie-podskochili-do-samogo-vysokogo-urovnya-s-2022-goda-20260904-1135/) - Совпадает с первичными данными ФАО по уровню индекса и периоду рекорда. - [Global food prices are hitting records: how Russia's attacks and bad weather will affect our wallets](https://24tv.ua/economy/ru/mirovye-ceny-na-produkty-dostigli-maksimuma-prichiny-i-posledstvija-dlja-pokupatelej_n3135821) - Подтверждает причины (атаки, непогода) и влияние на потребителей. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: What was the FAO food price index recorded for August 2026? **A:** 133.3 points, up from 130.8 in July — the highest level since November 2022, although it is 17% below the record peak of March 2022. ### Q: Why have global food prices risen? **A:** Due to extreme heat in Europe (a blow to corn and sugar beet), the expected El Niño in Asia (palm oil, sugar), reduced grain supplies from Ukraine amid attacks in the Black Sea, and tension around fertilizer supplies. ### Q: How has the forecast for global grain production in 2026 been revised? **A:** The FAO lowered it to 2.98 billion tonnes — 2% less than in the previous year, which is the largest annual decline since 2018. ### Q: Should Ukrainians stockpile food? **A:** According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, prices on the domestic market are holding for now and there is no reason for panic, but further developments depend on the resilience of production capacity and export logistics after the strikes.