--- title: "GUR: At Current Loss Rates, Russia Could Exhaust Its War Resources by 2028" description: "Oleg Ivashchenko, head of the GUR of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, stated that if current loss rates persist, Russia could exhaust its military and economic resources for waging war as early as 2028." date: 2026-09-11T11:16:01.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/gur-russia-could-exhaust-war-resources-by-2028 tags: [ukraine-war, russian-army, hur-ukraine, ivashchenko, military-losses, energy-infrastructure] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # GUR: At Current Loss Rates, Russia Could Exhaust Its War Resources by 2028 ![GUR official at a meeting assessing Russia's loss rates and the prospect of its war resources running out by 2028](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/11/gur-rossiya-mozhet-ischerpat-resursy-dlya-viyni-k-2028-godu/gur-rossiya-mozhet-ischerpat-resursy-dlya-viyni-k-2028-godu-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - According to GUR head Oleg Ivashchenko, Russia has enough resources to sustain the war until approximately 2028. - Russia's daily losses (1,400–1,500) exceed the recruitment rate (1,000–1,200), with about 60% of the losses being killed. - Over 18 months, the Russian army could lose around 765,800 people, affecting nearly 10% of men aged 25–49 by 2028. - Ivashchenko warned of intensified combined strikes on Ukraine's energy sector in autumn and winter. Oleg Ivashchenko, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, told The Times, as cited by RBC-Ukraine, that Russia has enough military and economic resources to continue combat operations until approximately 2028. In his assessment, Moscow still has a reserve of capabilities for the coming year, but after that, if the current dynamics persist, its resources will be exhausted. The statement came against the backdrop of ongoing debate over the sustainability of Russia's mobilization machine and its ability to sustain the current level of losses. ### The Math of Losses and Recruitment Ivashchenko cited specific figures that, according to him, underpin the forecast. According to GUR data, Russia recruits between 1,000 and 1,200 people into the army each day, while front-line losses are significantly higher — around 1,400–1,500 servicemembers per day. Roughly 60% of this daily figure, intelligence estimates, are killed. Thus, the rate of losses consistently exceeds the rate of replenishment, creating a growing shortage of personnel. ### Projection Over 18 Months If this dynamic continues, the Russian army could lose a further approximately 765,800 people over the next 18 months, according to calculations cited in the interview. Of these, 459,480 would be killed and 306,320 wounded, according to the figures provided. In total, by 2028 the war could affect nearly 10% of men in Russia aged 25 to 49 — a figure that, in Ivashchenko's view, becomes not only a military but also a demographic factor limiting Moscow's ability to continue the operation. ### Morale and Public Attitudes The head of GUR emphasized that the scale of the losses is reflected not only in the state of the army but also in the mood of the population. In his words, willingness to support the combat operations is declining in Russian society and among the servicemembers themselves. "Morale is very low, because no one wants to fight. Morale among the Russian population is also very low: most people actually do not want the war," Ivashchenko stated. These intelligence assessments indicate that Russia's internal war resource, according to its data, is being depleted not only quantitatively but also motivationally. ### Expected Strikes on Energy Infrastructure Separately, Ivashchenko warned that this autumn and winter Russia may intensify combined attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. According to him, ballistic and cruise missiles, Shahed kamikaze drones, and new glide munitions may be used for the strikes. The adversary's main targets are expected to be energy facilities and thermal power plants, which makes the forecast on Moscow's resources and the warning about energy strikes interconnected elements of a single intelligence assessment. ## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification - [Russia Could Exhaust Its War Resources by 2028: Ivashchenko's Forecast](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/rosiya-mozhe-vicherpati-resursi-viyni-2028-1789125200.html) - Базовый источник: прогноз исчерпания ресурсов к 2028 году, цифры вербовки и потерь. - [Russia May Lose Its War Resources by 2028 at Current Loss Rates — GUR](https://fakty.com.ua/ru/ukraine/20260911-rf-mozhe-vtratyty-resursy-dlya-vijny-do-2028-roku-za-nynishnih-tempiv-vtrat-gur/) - Подтверждает тезис о 2028 году и привязку к текущим темпам потерь. - [Putin Could Exhaust Russia's Ability to Wage War Before 2028 Under One Condition — Ivashchenko](https://zn.ua/war/putin-mozhet-ischerpat-vozmozhnosti-rf-vesti-vojnu-eshchjo-do-2028-hoda-pri-odnom-uslovii-ivashchenko.html) - Подтверждает условие сохранения текущей динамики потерь. - [Russia Could 'Burn Out' by 2028 — Intelligence Cites Specific Loss Figures](https://my.ua/news/cluster/2026-09-11-k-2028-godu-rossiia-mozhet-vydokhnutsia-v-razvedke-nazvali-konkretnye-tsifry-poter) - Подтверждает конкретные цифры потерь, приведённые в интервью. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: Until what year, according to GUR, will Russia have enough resources for the war? **A:** According to GUR head Oleg Ivashchenko, Russia has resources for the coming year, but intelligence estimates indicate they will be exhausted in 2028 if the current dynamics persist. ### Q: What are the daily losses and recruitment rates in the Russian army, according to GUR? **A:** Russia recruits between 1,000 and 1,200 people daily, while losses amount to around 1,400–1,500 servicemembers per day, of which approximately 60% are killed. ### Q: How many people could the Russian army lose over 18 months? **A:** According to calculations cited in the interview, losses over 18 months could reach around 765,800 people: 459,480 killed and 306,320 wounded. ### Q: What else did Ivashchenko warn about in this interview? **A:** He warned that in autumn and winter Russia may intensify combined attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure using ballistic and cruise missiles, Shahed drones, and glide munitions.