---
title: "GUR: Russia Has Enough Resources to Wage War Until 2028, but Its Economy Is Already in Crisis"
description: "GUR Head Oleg Ivashchenko stated that the Russian economy has weakened, but resources for the war will last until 2027–2028. The key problems are a shortage of personnel, the budget deficit, and the banking sector. The statement was made after three rounds of negotiations with the US in Kyiv."
date: 2026-09-07T09:28:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/gur-russia-has-enough-resources-for-war-until-2028
tags: [ukraine-war, russia-economy, gur-ukraine, sanctions, ivashchenko, us-ukraine-talks, military-intelligence]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# GUR: Russia Has Enough Resources to Wage War Until 2028, but Its Economy Is Already in Crisis

![Head of Ukraine's GUR at a briefing: Russia has resources to fight until 2028 but its economy is in crisis](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/07/gur-rossii-hvataet-resursov-na-voynu-do-2028/gur-rossii-hvataet-resursov-na-voynu-do-2028-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- The GUR assesses Russia's resource margin for waging war until 2027–2028
- Main problems of the Russian economy: shortage of personnel, budget deficit, banking sector crisis
- Effective sanctions against technological supplies are needed to exhaust Russia's military machine
- On 6 September, three rounds of negotiations with US representatives Witkoff and Kushner were held in Kyiv

Oleg Ivashchenko, Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, gave a detailed assessment of the current state of Russia's military and economic machine in an interview with Ukrinform. According to him, since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Russian economy has weakened significantly, but the resources available to the occupiers may be sufficient to continue hostilities against Ukraine until 2027–2028. The statement came against the backdrop of three rounds of negotiations between the Ukrainian delegation and the special representatives of the United States, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, held on 6 September in Kyiv.

### Three Systemic Problems of the Russian Economy

The head of Ukrainian intelligence pointed to three key factors that are objectively worsening the aggressor's financial position compared to the start of the war. First, there is an acute shortage of labour resources — a problem that grows with each month of mobilisations and population outflow. Second, the federal budget deficit is growing rapidly and must cover colossal military spending. Third, the situation in the banking sector is deteriorating, which undermines financial stability and limits the ability to redistribute resources. Ivashchenko emphasised that the aggressor is now in a "far worse financial position than at the start of the war".

### Resilience Margin: Why the War May Drag On

Despite the structural problems listed, according to the GUR's assessment, Russia still retains a significant resilience margin to continue hostilities on the front. "At the same time, it still has enough resources to wage war against Ukraine. We do not rule out that this resource will last until 2027 and even 2028," Ivashchenko stated. Thus, Ukrainian intelligence does not predict a soon collapse of the Russian military machine, but at the same time notes a trend toward its gradual exhaustion. This means that without external pressure and systemic restrictions, the process of degradation will proceed slowly.

### Sanctions as a Tool: The "Cutout Companies" Problem

To finally exhaust the aggressor's military machine, according to the head of the GUR, coordinated and tough work by Ukraine together with international partners is necessary. Sanctions will play a key role in this process; they must "really work" and deprive Russia of access to critical technologies. Ivashchenko revealed specific channels for bypassing the restrictions: "We understand from which countries the electronic component base, machine tools, and special chemicals are supplied to the Russian Federation. Many cutout companies are appearing, which bring into Russia what then works for its military machine against us." This indicates that the current sanctions architecture does not ensure a complete technological embargo and requires strengthened control over supply chains through third countries.

### Context: Negotiations in Kyiv and the Question of Post-War Recovery

Ivashchenko's statement came against the backdrop of active diplomatic activity. On 6 September in Kyiv, three rounds of negotiations were held between the Ukrainian delegation and the special representatives of the United States, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. During the meetings, the parties discussed ways to end the war, security guarantees for Ukraine, its geopolitical future, as well as issues of economic and post-war recovery. Following the negotiations, the American representatives called the talks "substantive" and expressed interest in achieving a long-term peace. The combination of these factors — the internal exhaustion of the Russian Federation, sanctions pressure, and diplomatic efforts — forms a picture in which time is working against the Russian side, but does not guarantee a quick resolution of the conflict.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [GUR assessed how long Russia's resources will last for waging war](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/gur-otsinili-skilki-rf-vistachit-resursiv-1788772721.html) - Первичный источник: интервью Иващенко «Укринформу», пересказанное РБК-Украина. Подтверждает все ключевые тезисы статьи.
- [Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Ivashchenko to lead the GUR instead of Budanov, — journalist](https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/738989-gur-i-ivashchenko-glava-svr-ukrainy-zamenit-budanova-detali) - Подтверждает статус Иващенко как начальника ГУР, что согласуется с атрибуцией цитат в статье.
- [Head of the FSB's Ivashchenko to become head of Ukraine's GUR instead of Budanov](https://news.mail.ru/politics/69316600/) - Дополнительное подтверждение должности Иващенко на момент заявления.
- [Head of the GUR visited the front near Zaporizhzhia](https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/4849128-nachalnyk-hur-pobyval-na-fronte-pod-zaporozhem) - Подтверждает активную деятельность Иващенко на посту начальника ГУР в текущий период.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: How long, according to the GUR's assessment, can Russia keep fighting?
**A:** GUR Head Oleg Ivashchenko stated that Russia's resources for waging war against Ukraine may last until 2027 and 2028, despite the weakening economy.

### Q: What are the main problems of the Russian economy that Ivashchenko named?
**A:** Three key problems: an acute shortage of labour resources, a rapid growth of the federal budget deficit, and a deterioration of the situation in the banking sector.

### Q: What is needed to finally exhaust Russia's military machine?
**A:** According to Ivashchenko, coordinated work by Ukraine with international partners is necessary, above all effective sanctions that deprive Russia of access to electronic components, machine tools, and special chemicals.

### Q: What negotiations took place in Kyiv on 6 September?
**A:** The Ukrainian delegation held three rounds of negotiations with the special representatives of the United States, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, on issues of ending the war, security guarantees, and post-war recovery.