---
title: "History Repeats: Russia Attempts to Encircle Lyman Again, but Starting Positions Are Worse"
description: "Russia is trying to encircle Lyman using the 2022 scheme, but is stalling again 🛑. The occupiers' starting positions are worse, and the advance in Donbas has stopped. Experts predict no success for the RF this summer 📉"
date: 2026-06-04T06:08:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/history-repeats-russia-attempts-to-encircle-lyman-again-but-starting-positions-are-worse
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# History Repeats: Russia Attempts to Encircle Lyman Again, but Starting Positions Are Worse

![Russian soldier near a truck with the letter Z, symbolizing attempts to encircle Lyman](https://xab.info/media/2026/06/04/rossiya-povtoryaet-proval-2022-goda-popytka-okruzhit-liman/rossiya-povtoryaet-proval-2022-goda-popytka-okruzhit-liman-1.webp)

Russian command is attempting to encircle the city of Lyman using a tactical scheme identical to the one employed in 2022. However, according to an assessment by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the current situation on the front looks significantly more pessimistic for the occupiers.

Analysts note that Moscow is trying to establish a foothold to the north, northeast, and east of Lyman. This maneuver recalls the large-scale campaign of the summer of 2022, when Russian troops sought to create a wide encirclement from Lyman in the northeast to Izyum in the northwest. At that time, the strategy failed: in September-October, Ukrainian troops expelled the enemy from both Izyum and Lyman within a matter of weeks.

### Deteriorating Positions and Unrealistic Goals

As of June 2026, the front line in this direction is significantly less favorable for Russia than it was four years ago. The attempt to repeat the encirclement of Lyman and break through to Sloviansk is failing again. ISW experts point to a systemic error by the Russian command: it has not drawn conclusions from past defeats and continues to set unrealistic tasks for itself, despite the objective deterioration of the army's combat capabilities.

The analysts' forecast is unambiguous: in the summer of 2026, Russia is unlikely to achieve even tactical successes in the Sloviansk direction, let alone operational achievements.

### The Overall Picture in Donbas

The situation regarding the offensive in Donbas demonstrates a clear decline in activity. Advancement in the directions of Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk has come to a complete halt. At the same time, Russian losses remain critical: the enemy's monthly losses have reached 35,000 people.

Parallel to the ground stagnation, there is an escalation in the airspace. In May, Russia set a record for the number of drones launched against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion — 8,150 drones. This is 24% more than in April, indicating an attempt to compensate for failures on the ground with massive air attacks.