--- title: "IEA: Global oil supply has exceeded demand for the first time since the war in Iran began, but diesel remains expensive in Europe" description: "According to the IEA, global oil supply has exceeded demand for the first time since the Iran war started, yet diesel prices in Europe remain 77% above pre-war levels due to persistent shortages." date: 2026-11-13T15:26:44.940Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/iea-global-oil-supply-exceeds-demand-diesel-expensive tags: [diesel-prices, oil-market, iea, persian-gulf, energy, refined-products] author: "Andrey Kosynko" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # IEA: Global oil supply has exceeded demand for the first time since the war in Iran began, but diesel remains expensive in Europe ![Aerial view of a large oil refinery with numerous oil storage tanks.](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/13/mea-mirovoe-predlozhenie-nefti-prevysilo-spros-dizel-v-evrope-dorogoy/mea-mirovoe-predlozhenie-nefti-prevysilo-spros-dizel-v-evrope-dorogoy-1.webp) ## Key Points - The IEA recorded that global oil supply has exceeded demand for the first time since the war in Iran began. - Diesel prices in Europe remain 77% above pre-war levels; the diesel shortage is termed the market's main problem. - North Sea Dated oil has fallen 32% from its October peak of $136 to approximately $93 per barrel. - Oil exports from the Persian Gulf (excluding Oman) in October were 18.4 million barrels per day, 26% lower than pre-war levels. - Global oil demand this year is forecast by the IEA to drop by 2.7 million barrels per day to 102.3 million. The International Energy Agency (IEA) published a monthly report on Friday, noting a key shift in the global energy market: for the first time since the war in Iran began, global oil supply has exceeded demand. According to the Paris-based agency, the market is showing "cautious signs of rebalancing," but the recovery is uneven. While crude oil is returning to pre-war flows, the refined products segment—primarily diesel fuel—continues to face an acute shortage, keeping prices high for end consumers in Europe. ### Diesel shortage — the market's main problem Despite the overall supply-demand surplus for crude oil, the IEA identified the lack of diesel fuel as the "market's main problem." According to the agency, diesel prices in Europe remain 77% higher than pre-war levels. One reason for the persistent shortage, the IEA notes, is ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which disrupt diesel exports from the country and exacerbate supply losses in the Middle East. To mitigate the situation, the agency recommends faster releases of emergency diesel stockpiles in the coming months, which would help compensate for the shortage while refineries recover their operations. ### Sharp decline in oil prices from October peak In recent weeks, quotes have corrected downward significantly. The price of North Sea Dated crude fell by 32% from an October peak of $136 per barrel to approximately $93 at the time of the IEA report. European diesel prices fell by 11% in the same period, dropping to nearly $180 per barrel. Thus, even with the decline in absolute figures, diesel fuel prices remain many times higher than levels established before the conflict, confirming that the imbalance in the refined products segment is structural rather than temporary. ### Recovery of exports from the Persian Gulf Despite ongoing attacks on tankers, oil exports from Persian Gulf countries (excluding Oman) reached 18.4 million barrels per day in October. This is still 26% below pre-war levels, but the trend is one of recovery. The IEA notes that crude oil led the recovery, while exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas from the Gulf remained at about half of pre-war volumes. In quantity, global oil supply increased by 3 million barrels per day in September and by another 2.3 million in October, reaching 105.4 million barrels per day. ### Demand forecast and long-term trends The IEA expects global oil supply to exceed demand in the fourth quarter but warns that ongoing attacks on maritime shipping could derail the recovery. According to the agency's forecast, global oil demand will contract by 2.7 million barrels per day this year, to 102.3 million, as high fuel prices and export disruptions from Gulf countries weigh on consumption. By 2027, the IEA projects a recovery in demand, but only slight growth in motor fuel consumption: more drivers are switching to electric vehicles and cars are becoming more fuel-efficient, which structurally limits the growth of demand for refined products. ### Risks and market conclusions The IEA report's bottom line can be summarized as a "cautiously optimistic" scenario: the primary oil market has begun to rebalance, but refining and logistics for petroleum products remain vulnerable. The agency identifies further attacks on maritime transport and continued disruptions to Russian diesel exports as key risks. For European consumers, this means that even if crude oil quotes fall, diesel fuel prices will remain significantly higher than pre-war levels in the coming months until refinery operations recover and emergency reserves are deployed. ## Fact-Check & Sources - [Цены на дизтопливо в Европе остаются высокими при избытке нефти — МЭА](https://ru.euronews.com/2026/11/13/european-diesel-prices-remain-high-as-global-oil-supply-surpasses-demand-according-to-the) - Primary source: all key figures (77% above pre-war level, $136 peak, ~$93, 18.4 million bpd, 105.4 million bpd, 102.3 million demand) are taken from the text of the IEA report. - [Цены на газ в Европе пробили четырехлетний максимум](https://www.rbc.ru/business/27/10/2026/6adf9954a948b0553b387483) - Context: the rise in TTF gas quotes confirms the general background of high energy prices in Europe; does not contradict the main text. - [Центробанк: цены на нефть остаются высокими, инфляционные ожидания остаются высокими](https://1prime.ru/20261023/tsentrobank-874560095.html) - Context: confirms persistent high price pressure on oil; aligns with the thesis on expensive petroleum products. ## FAQ ### Has oil supply exceeded demand? Yes, according to the IEA, for the first time since the start of the war in Iran, global oil supply has exceeded demand, reaching 105.4 million barrels per day in October. ### How expensive are diesel prices in Europe? Diesel prices in Europe remain 77% above pre-war levels; they have fallen by 11% in recent weeks to nearly $180 per barrel. ### What is the level of oil exports from the Persian Gulf? In October, exports from Gulf countries (excluding Oman) were 18.4 million barrels per day, which is 26% below pre-war levels; refined products and LPG remain at roughly half of pre-war volumes. ### What is the demand forecast for oil? The IEA expects global demand to contract by 2.7 million barrels per day to 102.3 million this year, with only slight growth in motor fuel consumption by 2027 due to the shift to electric vehicles.