--- title: "The Illusion of Stability: Why NBU's Record Reserves Are Not Saving the Hryvnia from a Structural Crisis" description: "The NBU is conducting unprecedented interventions to maintain the exchange rate, but the structural deficit in the balance of payments is growing. Imports are overtaking exports, and the economy depends on international aid." date: 2026-08-19T14:14:00.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/illusion-of-stability-nbu-reserves-structural-crisis-2026 tags: [ukraine-economy, nbu, currency-market, hryvnia, balance-of-payments] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # The Illusion of Stability: Why NBU's Record Reserves Are Not Saving the Hryvnia from a Structural Crisis ![Currency exchange board in a shopping mall: USD, EUR, CZK and others — symbol of hryvnia volatility despite NBU’s record reserves](https://xab.info/media/2026/08/19/kurs-bez-ravnovesiya-defitsit-platezhnogo-balansa-2026/kurs-bez-ravnovesiya-defitsit-platezhnogo-balansa-2026-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - The trade deficit in goods for the first 7 months of 2026 reached $35 billion. - The NBU sold $29.2 billion on the market during the first 8 months of the year. - External equilibrium is maintained by international aid, not private investments. - 86% of NBU interventions are directed to cover business demand. At first glance, the situation in Ukraine's currency market in August 2026 appears to be under control: the hryvnia exchange rate demonstrates smooth dynamics, and the National Bank's foreign exchange reserves remain at historical highs. However, behind the facade of external stability lies a deep structural problem. Balance of payments data indicates that Ukraine is generating colossal demand for foreign currency, which is growing several times faster than its own export supply. Experts warn: current stability is held up exclusively by large-scale NBU interventions and international aid, rather than market equilibrium. ### Structural Imbalance: Imports vs. Exports The key indicator of tension in the economy is the gap between imports and exports. In the first seven months of 2026, goods imports grew by approximately 33%, while exports increased by only 4%. As a result, the trade deficit in goods reached $35 billion, significantly exceeding the $21 billion figure for the same period last year. The main share of imports consists of energy carriers, energy equipment, drones, electronics, and construction materials — goods critically important for defense and infrastructure reconstruction. At the same time, export growth is driven primarily by raw materials: grains, oil, pig iron, and semi-finished products from ferrous metals. Such a disproportion creates a constant structural deficit: Ukraine imports complex technological and military products, while exporting raw materials. The NBU forecast for 2026 does not promise a quick leveling: a 28% increase in imports is expected against an export growth of only 3.7%. ### Scale of Interventions and Dependence on Aid To compensate for this gap, the National Bank is forced to conduct unprecedented interventions. For the period from January to August 10, 2026, the regulator sold $29.2 billion on the market, which is 35% more than a year earlier. The average daily currency sale is about $185 million, rising to $203 million in August. Essentially, the NBU performs the function of a centralized supplier of currency for critical imports and defense needs. The main question lies in the sources covering this deficit. Over the last 12 months, Ukraine has received about $60 billion in international aid in the form of loans and grants. Private transfers and payments for the labor of Ukrainians abroad added another $16.3 billion. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment amounted to only $1.7 billion. This means that external equilibrium is supported not by private capital, but by official financing from partners. Any delay in the receipt of funds immediately creates pressure on reserves and the exchange rate. ### Who is Creating Pressure on the Market? An analysis of the demand structure shows that the main driver of the currency market is business. In January – August 2026, approximately 86% of the NBU's net interventions were directed to meet the needs of companies, and only 14% fell to the population. Business demand for foreign currency increased by 44% over the year, while population demand decreased by 6%. This confirms the thesis that pressure on the exchange rate is created not by public panic, but by the real economic needs of importers and enterprises requiring currency to purchase equipment and components. ### Contradictory Data Although the general picture of the deficit is obvious, there are nuances in interpreting the data. On the one hand, experts point out that a significant part of imports is not "unproductive" — it is directly related to defense and energy security. On the other hand, part of the currency purchased by citizens and businesses does not return to the financial system, moving into cash savings or leaving the country. Estimates suggest that about $7.3 billion accounts for the increase in currency volumes outside the banking system. This creates additional uncertainty: the real supply of currency in the domestic market may be lower than official statistical figures. ## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification - [Exchange Rate Without Equilibrium. Why NBU Reserve Records Should Not Create an Illusion of Security](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/kurs-rivnovagi-chomu-rekordi-rezerviv-nbu-1787148573.html) - Основной источник для данных об интервенциях, структуре спроса и прогнозах НБУ. - [NBU Revised the Balance of Payments: Deficit Increased by $2.2 Billion in 2025](https://delo.ua/ru/news/nbu-peresmotrel-plateznyi-balans-deficit-vyros-na-22-mlrd-v-2025-godu-462264/) - Подтверждение динамики дефицита и структуры платежного баланса. - [NBU Recalculated Ukraine's Balance of Payments: How the 'Google Tax' and Digital Services Changed Statistics](https://minfin.com.ua/2026/03/21/170405450/) - Дополнительный контекст по причинам стабильности курса. - [Balance of Payments Reached Record Deficit: Why Devaluation Is Being Avoided](https://minfin.com.ua/2025/11/05/161826842/) - Дополнительный контекст по причинам стабильности курса. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: Why does the hryvnia exchange rate remain stable despite a high deficit? **A:** Stability is ensured by large-scale NBU interventions and the inflow of international financial aid, which compensate for the gap between currency demand and supply. ### Q: Who is the main buyer of foreign currency in 2026? **A:** The main driver of demand is business (86% of interventions), which needs currency for importing equipment, energy, and defense goods. ### Q: What will happen if international aid slows down? **A:** A delay in financing will create an immediate burden on NBU reserves and could lead to a weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate.