--- title: "Inflation in Ukraine accelerates to 7.7% in July 2026: borscht ingredients, tariffs, and NBU forecast until 2028" description: "🇺🇦 Inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year in July 2026. Main drivers of growth: borscht vegetables, water and transport tariffs. The NBU forecasts growth to 10% by the end of the year but expects a slowdown to 5% by 2028. ⚖️ In June, prices fell for the first time, but July showed the opposite trend." date: 2026-08-12T07:14:05.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/inflation-in-ukraine-july-2026-7-7-nbu-forecast-en tags: [ukraine-economy, inflation, nbu, prices, tariffs, 2026] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # Inflation in Ukraine accelerates to 7.7% in July 2026: borscht ingredients, tariffs, and NBU forecast until 2028 ![Hands counting Ukrainian hryvnia banknotes — illustration for news on Ukraine’s inflation accelerating to 7.7% in July 2026](https://xab.info/media/2026/08/12/infljacija-v-ukraine-ijul-2026-7-7-prognoz-nbu/infljacija-v-ukraine-ijul-2026-7-7-prognoz-nbu-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - Inflation in July 2026 amounted to 7.7% year-on-year. - Main reasons for growth: rising prices for vegetables, water tariffs, and fuel. - The NBU forecasts inflation at 10% by the end of 2026. - Return to the target indicator of 5% is expected in 2028. - A temporary price decrease was observed in June, followed by an increase in July. On August 12, 2026, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine published data confirming the acceleration of inflationary processes in the country. By the end of July of the current year, annual inflation reached 7.7%, a significant deviation from previously optimistic forecasts. Experts from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) note that actual figures exceeded expectations due to a shift in seasonality in agriculture and an increase in administratively regulated tariffs. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.3%, signaling growing pressure on citizens' purchasing power. ### Factors driving price increases: from borscht to gasoline An analysis of the inflation structure shows that the main contribution to the acceleration of price growth came from food products, utilities, and transport. In the category of raw food products, a paradoxical situation is observed: prices for vegetables in the borscht set (potatoes, beets, cabbage) have risen sharply due to a shift in harvest times compared to last year. At the same time, the cost of meat, eggs, and fruits, including apples, either decreased or showed a slowdown in growth rates. Core inflation, reflecting the increase in processed products, slowed down to 10%, although sunflower oil continued to rise steadily. The situation in the services and non-food goods sector remains tense as well. The growth of prices for non-food goods accelerated to 0.8% against the backdrop of a preliminary weakening of the hryvnia. In the services sector, there is a divergent dynamic: restaurant and hotel services are becoming more expensive more slowly, but the cost of taxis and transport has increased significantly due to high fuel prices. In addition, rent for housing continues to rise, driven by internal population migration and the increasing cost of construction materials. ### Administrative inflation and tariffs One of the key drivers of price growth in July 2026 was administrative inflation. The main reasons were the increase in tariffs for water and sewage in many regions of Ukraine, as well as an increase in the cost of public transport fares. The rise in prices for alcohol and tobacco products is explained by the increasing cost of logistics and raw materials. In the fuel sector, the dynamics were uneven: at the beginning of July, prices remained stable, but in the second half of the month, gasoline and diesel fuel noticeably became more expensive against the backdrop of a surge in global oil prices. ### NBU forecast: inflation peak and return to target The National Bank of Ukraine has adjusted its forecasts for the current and subsequent years. According to the regulator, in the second half of 2026, inflation will continue to grow and may reach 10% by the end of the year. This forecast is influenced by high budget expenditures, wage growth in enterprises, the consequences of rising energy costs, and new water supply tariffs. Restraining factors remain moratoriums on certain utilities and the NBU's tight monetary policy. It is expected that in 2027, inflation rates will begin to slow down and will be around 6.9%. A full return to the target indicator of 5% is forecast only by 2028. Experts emphasize that achieving this goal requires maintaining macroeconomic stability and the absence of new external shocks. ### Contradictory data In the context of the current inflationary wave, it is worth noting the discrepancy in assessments of price dynamics in different periods of the year. According to source data [ID 1], in June 2026, prices in Ukraine went down for the first time since the beginning of the year, and a number of goods became cheaper. However, State Statistics Service data for July [ID 2] indicate a sharp acceleration of inflation to 7.7% on an annual basis. This creates a picture of high volatility: a short-term decline in prices in June was replaced by acceleration in July, making forecasting extremely difficult for consumers and businesses. The difference in versions may be related to seasonal factors and a time lag in statistics, but for citizens, this means instability in purchasing power. ## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification - [Prices in Ukraine fell for the first time since the beginning of the year: what became cheaper in June](https://www.unian.net/economics/finance/ceny-v-ukraine-vpervye-s-nachala-goda-poshli-vniz-gosstat-soobshchil-chto-podeshevelo-13436193.html) - Использован для раздела о противоречивых данных и контексте динамики цен. - [Prices in Ukraine are rising faster: what became the most expensive in July](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/tsini-ukrayini-rostut-shvidshe-shcho-podorozhchalo-1786518494.html) - Основной источник данных по инфляции за июль 2026 года и прогнозам НБУ. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: What is the inflation rate in Ukraine in July 2026? **A:** According to the State Statistics Service, annual inflation in July 2026 amounted to 7.7%. ### Q: What became the most expensive in July? **A:** The main contribution to the price increase was made by borscht vegetables, water tariffs, public transport, and fuel. ### Q: What is the NBU forecast for the end of 2026? **A:** The NBU forecasts that inflation by the end of 2026 will reach 10%. ### Q: When will inflation return to the target of 5%? **A:** It is expected that inflation will return to the target indicator of 5% in 2028.