--- title: "ISW Exposes Kremlin's Plan: Why Russia Wants a 'Humanitarian Mission' in Kostiantynivka" description: "ISW: By insisting on a 'humanitarian mission' in Kostiantynivka, Russia intends to strengthen the southern flank of the 'fortress belt' and move equipment under the cover of a truce. Kyiv views this as an attempt to capture the city." date: 2026-11-15T08:31:16.255Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/isw-exposes-kremlin-plan-humanitarian-mission-kostiantynivka tags: [isw, konstantinovka, ceasefire, russia-ukraine, humanitarian-mission] author: "Marina Slivenko" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # ISW Exposes Kremlin's Plan: Why Russia Wants a 'Humanitarian Mission' in Kostiantynivka ![Destroyed multi-story residential buildings and urban development in Ukraine from a bird's-eye view as a result of hostilities](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/15/isv-kremlev-plan-gumanitarnoy-missii-v-konstantinovke/isv-kremlev-plan-gumanitarnoy-missii-v-konstantinovke-1.webp) ## Key Points - ISW believes Russia's proposal for a mission in Kostiantynivka aims to strengthen the southern flank of the 'fortress belt' and prepare for the capture of Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia. - According to ISW, a local truce will allow Russia to safely move heavy equipment closer to the front without fearing Ukrainian UAV strikes. - Attacks in the Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia directions account for 80% of Russia's offensive activity against the 'fortress belt' since early October 2026. - Zelenskyy stated that there are almost no civilians left in Kostiantynivka, and the mission is an attempt to capture the city; Ombudsman Lubinets reported that Ukraine is unaware of any such mission being prepared. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a recent report cited by RBC-Ukraine has exposed the logic that analysts believe Moscow is pursuing by insisting on conducting the next humanitarian mission specifically in Kostiantynivka. According to ISW's assessment, a temporary ceasefire in this area would allow Russian troops to strengthen the southern flank of the so-called "fortress belt" and create conditions for resuming attempts to capture Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia. ### Rejection of Ukrainian Options Analysts recall that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously noted that Kyiv's representatives handed the US a list of seven to eight occupied settlements where a humanitarian truce would be appropriate, but the Kremlin rejected these options. Instead, Russia put forward its own proposal — to conduct a mission in Kostiantynivka modeled on the one that took place in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast. ISW believes this stance is an attempt to convince the American side to take at face value the fabricated picture of the frontline situation promoted by Moscow. ### A Scenario Modeled on Oleshky According to ISW, Russian forces will likely use the local ceasefire in Kostiantynivka and its surroundings to accumulate forces and resources in the area, analogous to the situation during the truce in Oleshky. At that time, the ceasefire regime covered a wider area in the Kherson direction to ensure the safe evacuation of the civilian population. Presumably, a potential truce in Kostiantynivka should also cover adjacent territories. ### Moving Equipment Under the Cover of Silence "Russian military command likely plans to use the local ceasefire in the Kostiantynivka area to strengthen its positions there and then intensify attempts to capture the 'fortress belt' from the southern and southwestern directions," analysts believe. They emphasize that in the event of a temporary ceasefire in a wide sector, Russian troops could safely move heavy equipment closer to the front line without fearing Ukrainian drone strikes. ### 80% of Offensive Activity ISW also notes that the total number of Russian attacks in the Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka directions accounts for 80% of all offensive activity by Russian troops against Ukraine's "fortress belt" since the beginning of October 2026. Analysts believe this indicates the high importance of these directions for the Russian military command and explains why Kostiantynivka specifically became the target of the "humanitarian" proposal. ### Positions of the Parties After the November 12 Meeting Recall that during a meeting with US President's special representatives on November 12, Vladimir Putin stated that a humanitarian mission modeled on Oleshky could be organized in Kostiantynivka. The Kremlin stated that Russian forces are ready to begin demining Kostiantynivka, which they claim will take about five days. The Office of the President of Ukraine noted that Russia might be proposing the mission to rotate its military personnel in Oleshky. Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated that the Ukrainian side is unaware of any developments regarding a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in turn, stated that Russia wants to organize the mission to finally capture the city, where, according to him, there are almost no civilians left — only military personnel. ## Accounts differ ### Nature and Purpose of the 'Humanitarian Mission' in Kostiantynivka - **Kremlin / Russian side:** Russian forces are ready to begin demining Kostiantynivka, which will take about five days; the mission can be organized modeled on Oleshky. ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/chomu-rf-obrala-gumanitarnoyi-misiyi-same-1794730550.html)) - **Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Office of the President of Ukraine:** There are almost no civilians in Kostiantynivka, only military personnel; the mission is an attempt by Russia to capture the city and rotate military personnel in Oleshky. ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/chomu-rf-obrala-gumanitarnoyi-misiyi-same-1794730550.html)) - **Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets:** The Ukrainian side is unaware of any humanitarian mission being prepared in Kostiantynivka. ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/chomu-rf-obrala-gumanitarnoyi-misiyi-same-1794730550.html)) *Where they agree:* The Russian side put forward a proposal to conduct a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka modeled on Oleshky. ## Fact-Check & Sources - [Почему РФ выбрала для гуманитарной миссии именно Константиновку: в ISW раскрыли план Кремля](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/chomu-rf-obrala-gumanitarnoyi-misiyi-same-1794730550.html) - Primary source: full text of the ISW report, statements by Zelenskyy, the Kremlin, the President's Office, Ombudsman Lubinets, and data on 80% offensive activity. - [Почему РФ выбрала Константиновку для "гуманитарной миссии": в ISW раскрыли план Кремля](https://www.unian.net/war/gumanitarnaya-missiya-v-konstantinovke-v-isw-obyasnili-vybor-kremlya-13560123.html) - Confirms ISW's key points: movement of heavy equipment under the cover of a truce, strengthening of the southern flank, analogy with Oleshky, Kremlin's rejection of Ukrainian options. ## FAQ ### Why, according to ISW, is Russia insisting on a mission specifically in Kostiantynivka? According to ISW analysts, a temporary ceasefire in this area would allow Russia to strengthen the southern flank of the 'fortress belt' and create conditions for resuming attempts to capture Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia. ### What is the share of Russian attacks in the Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia directions? According to ISW, since the beginning of October 2026, they account for 80% of all offensive activity by Russian troops against Ukraine's 'fortress belt'. ### What did Volodymyr Zelenskyy say about civilians in Kostiantynivka? Zelenskyy stated that there are almost no civilians in the city — only military personnel, and that Russia wants to organize the mission to finally capture Kostiantynivka.