--- title: "ISW: Kremlin Not Ready for Compromises on Ukraine and Relies on a Distorted Assessment of the Front" description: "According to ISW, after the talks with the American delegation, the Kremlin is not ready for substantial compromises on Ukraine and relies on an exaggerated assessment of the army's successes, despite the unrealistic deadline for capturing the Donbas by the end of 2026." date: 2026-09-07T06:32:00.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/isw-kremlin-not-ready-for-compromises-on-ukraine tags: [isw, putin, ukraine-war, donetsk, russia] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # ISW: Kremlin Not Ready for Compromises on Ukraine and Relies on a Distorted Assessment of the Front ![Vladimir Putin at his desk with the Russian flag behind him: ISW says Kremlin not ready for Ukraine compromises](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/07/isw-putin-ne-gotov-k-kompromisam-po-ukraine/isw-putin-ne-gotov-k-kompromisam-po-ukraine-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - ISW believes that after the meeting with Witkoff and Kushner, the Kremlin is not ready for substantial compromises and is adhering to the demands of June 2024. - The analysts point to the Kremlin's exaggerated assessment of the army's successes and the systematic distortion of information by military commanders. - The deadline set by Putin for capturing the entire Donetsk region by the end of 2026 is, according to ISW's calculations, unrealistic: at the current pace, it would take until 2032. - Russian forces have been unable to capture Konstantinovka since October 2025, which contradicts the claims of "significant successes." The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has published an analysis concluding that the Russian leadership has no intention of making substantial concessions to end the war against Ukraine. Experts analyzed the statements made following Vladimir Putin's meeting with U.S. presidential special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and concluded that Moscow is in fact adhering to the same maximalist demands that were put forward back in June 2024. ### Maximalist Demands Unchanged According to the analysts, the unchanged conditions include the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions β€” including territories not controlled by the Russian army β€” as well as the "demilitarization" and "de-Nazification" of Ukraine and the country's renunciation of NATO membership. In ISW's view, the statement by presidential aide Yuri Ushakov after the talks with the American delegation "indicates that the Kremlin, as before, is unwilling to make any substantial compromises."### Distorted Assessment of the Situation at the Front The key problem highlighted by the analysts is the Kremlin's exaggerated assessment of its own successes. Ushakov conveyed that Putin, during the meeting, spoke of "significant successes" by the Russian army along the front line. ISW considers this assessment inflated and links it to the systematic distortion of information by Russian military commanders at various levels. It is precisely this, according to the experts, that reinforces Putin's conviction that further offensive operations will allow the goals to be achieved without concessions. ### The 2026 Deadline and Konstantinovka A source close to the Kremlin stated before the visit of the American delegation that a peace agreement is impossible until the entire Donetsk region is captured, and that Putin, according to him, is confident this task will be completed by the end of 2026 β€” the final deadline set by the Kremlin. At the same time, ISW notes that since the start of the full-scale war, Putin has set at least 15 such deadlines, none of which have been met. Russian forces have been fighting for Konstantinovka since October 2025 and have been unable to capture it in 11 months, while Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkovka remain ahead as part of the Ukrainian fortified belt. ### Contradictory Data There is a clear discrepancy between the versions here. On the one hand, the Russian side publicly claims "significant successes" and readiness for the "capture" of cities such as Konstantinovka, as well as the possibility of taking the entire Donetsk region by December 31, 2026. On the other hand, ISW asserts that the city has not been occupied after 11 months of combat operations, and that the actual pace of advance does not allow any of the set deadlines to be met. Thus, according to the analysts, Moscow's "victory" rhetoric and the actual dynamics at the front do not align. ### ISW Estimates: Not Before 2032 The analysts also provide a quantitative estimate: in August, the average rate of advance of Russian forces across the entire theater of operations was 2.91 square kilometers per day. If this rate is maintained, the occupation of the remaining 19% of the Donetsk region would, according to ISW's calculations, only become possible around October 2, 2032 β€” and even then, if at all. The experts emphasize that they are not ready to assert that Russia will be able to establish full control over the region in the first place, which makes the deadline set for the end of 2026 unrealistic. ## πŸ” Fact-Check Verification - [Putin Rejects Compromises on Ukraine: ISW Points to Russia's Main Problem](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/putin-vidmovivsya-vid-kompromisiv-shchodo-1788762502.html) - ΠŸΠΎΠ΄Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€ΠΆΠ΄Π°Π΅Ρ‚ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ· ISW ΠΎ Π½Π΅ΠΆΠ΅Π»Π°Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠšΡ€Π΅ΠΌΠ»Ρ ΠΈΠ΄Ρ‚ΠΈ Π½Π° компромиссы ΠΈ максималистских трСбованиях. - ["Acknowledges the Difficulties": ISW Casts Doubt on Putin's "Victory" Statements](https://glavred.info/world/osoznaet-trudnosti-v-isw-postavili-pod-somnenie-pobednye-zayavleniya-putina-10776515.html) - ΠŸΠΎΠ΄Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€ΠΆΠ΄Π°Π΅Ρ‚ тСзис ΠΎ ΠΏΡ€Π΅ΡƒΠ²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡ‡Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΡ†Π΅Π½ΠΊΠ΅ успСхов Π°Ρ€ΠΌΠΈΠΈ ΠΈ искаТСнии ΠΈΠ½Ρ„ΠΎΡ€ΠΌΠ°Ρ†ΠΈΠΈ. - [Has Russia Occupied Konstantinovka: ISW Assesses Putin's Words on the "Capture" of the City](https://glavred.info/ukraine/okkupirovala-li-rf-konstantinovku-v-isw-ocenili-slova-putina-o-zahvate-goroda-10778147.html) - ΠŸΠΎΠ΄Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€ΠΆΠ΄Π°Π΅Ρ‚ тСзис ΠΎ ΠΏΡ€Π΅ΡƒΠ²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡ‡Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΡ†Π΅Π½ΠΊΠ΅ успСхов Π°Ρ€ΠΌΠΈΠΈ ΠΈ искаТСнии ΠΈΠ½Ρ„ΠΎΡ€ΠΌΠ°Ρ†ΠΈΠΈ. - [Putin's Statements on Russia's Successes on the Battlefield Do Not Match Reality – ISW](https://www.obozrevatel.com/politics-news/zayavleniya-putina-ob-uspehah-rossii-na-pole-boya-ne-sootvetstvuyut-dejstvitelnosti-isw.htm) - ΠŸΠΎΠ΄Ρ‚Π²Π΅Ρ€ΠΆΠ΄Π°Π΅Ρ‚ нСсоотвСтствиС заявлСний ΠΎ успСхах фактичСской Π΄ΠΈΠ½Π°ΠΌΠΈΠΊΠ΅ Π½Π° Ρ„Ρ€ΠΎΠ½Ρ‚Π΅. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: Is the Kremlin ready for compromises on ending the war? **A:** According to ISW, no: after the meeting with the American delegation, Moscow is adhering to the same maximalist demands as in June 2024 and is not ready for substantial concessions. ### Q: What demands is Russia making? **A:** The complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including territories not controlled by Russia, "demilitarization," "de-Nazification," and Ukraine's renunciation of NATO. ### Q: Can Russia capture the entire Donetsk region by the end of 2026? **A:** ISW considers this unrealistic: at an average advance rate of 2.91 square kilometers per day, the remaining part of the region could only be taken around October 2, 2032, if at all. ### Q: Has Konstantinovka been captured? **A:** According to ISW, no: Russian forces have been fighting for the city since October 2025 and have been unable to capture it in 11 months.