---
title: "ISW: Russia Preparing a Series of Sabotage Acts in Poland for Winter — Logistics and Pipelines Under Threat"
description: "ISW and Polish authorities warn: Russia may intensify sabotage in Poland in the winter of 2026–2027. Railways, pipelines, and aid supply routes to Ukraine are under threat."
date: 2026-10-18T06:17:56.597Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/isw-russia-sabotage-poland-winter
tags: [poland-security, russia-sabotage, hybrid-warfare, isw-report, ukraine-logistics, nato-eastern-flank]
author: "Alexander Buran, Andrey Kosynko"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# ISW: Russia Preparing a Series of Sabotage Acts in Poland for Winter — Logistics and Pipelines Under Threat

![Polish army soldier in camouflage uniform against the background of the Polish flag](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/18/isv-rossiya-diversii-polsha-zima-2026-2027/isv-rossiya-diversii-polsha-zima-2026-2027-1.webp)

## Key Points

- ISW forecasts an increase in Russian sabotage in Poland during the 2026–2027 winter period
- Probable targets include railway infrastructure, pipelines, and aid supply routes to Ukraine
- Former Polish BBN head Jacek Siewiera warned on October 16 of a rise in hybrid operations in Europe
- Prime Minister Tusk confirmed that Polish, Ukrainian, and allied intelligence register escalation risks
- The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stated that Russian actions in Europe are shifting from hybrid to military

In a recent analytical report, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned of a likely increase in Russian sabotage and provocation activities within Poland during the 2026–2027 winter period. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine. According to the institute's experts, the primary targets of potential operations could include railway and logistics infrastructure, as well as key routes used to supply Western military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The report was prepared against the backdrop of an increasing number of hybrid-nature incidents in Eastern European countries over recent months.

### “Winter Will Be a Test”: Warning from Former National Security Bureau Head

On October 16, Jacek Siewiera, former head of Poland's National Security Bureau, made a public statement pointing to a significant rise in hybrid operations in Europe specifically during the winter period. According to his assessment, the list of threats includes potential air attacks on critical infrastructure, administrative buildings, and civilian targets. Siewiera specifically noted that unmanned aerial vehicles could be employed as tools of influence, making the threat harder to detect and more complex for air defense systems to counter.

### Tusk Names Specific Targets: Gas, Oil, Grain, and Railways

Commenting on intelligence warnings, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Polish, Ukrainian, and allied intelligence agencies are registering the possibility of a certain escalation, including during the Christmas period. Tusk listed potential targets: transportation routes for gas, oil, and food to Ukraine, as well as logistics hubs and railway infrastructure near the Polish-Ukrainian border. According to the Prime Minister, Moscow will likely attempt to test Warsaw's and its allies' reactions to such actions, evaluating NATO's readiness for a collective response.

### Kyiv Notes Transition from Hybrid Operations to Military Actions

The Ukrainian side also provides context for the Polish warnings. On October 2, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine issued a warning about Russia preparing new acts of sabotage in EU and NATO countries, naming military facilities, critical infrastructure, and communication systems—in particular, Starlink satellite internet ground stations—among potential targets. On October 12, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that Russia's actions in Europe are already moving beyond classical hybrid operations and acquiring military characteristics: these are attacks that lead to casualties and target strategically important objects.

### The Kremlin’s Strategic Calculation: Paralyzing Aid Logistics

ISW analysts point out that the logic behind potential Russian operations is based on calculation: sabotage attempts in European countries will complicate and slow down the delivery of Western aid to Ukraine, while distracting politicians and allied resources from supporting the Ukrainian army. Thus, even a minor incident on a railway or gas pipeline is capable of provoking a political reaction that requires additional resources for investigations, enhanced security, and the restructuring of supply chains. Under conditions where the winter period traditionally complicates the work of security services due to weather factors, the effectiveness of such operations could increase.

### What This Means for Regional Security

The combination of statements—from ISW and Jacek Siewiera to Donald Tusk and Ukrainian intelligence services—paints a picture of a systemic increase in the threat level for NATO's eastern flank. Neither side claims a specific attack is being prepared with a specific date, but the consistency of assessments regarding the nature and probable targets of the operations indicates that the warnings are operational rather than speculative in nature. For Poland, which remains one of the key transit hubs for supplies to Ukraine in 2026, this means the need to further strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure and coordinate with NATO allies at the intelligence and operational planning levels.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Россия может усилить диверсии в Польше зимой: в ISW назвали вероятные цели](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/rosiya-mozhe-posiliti-diversiyi-polshchi-1792304017.html) - Primary source: ISW report, statements by Jacek Siewiera (16.10), Donald Tusk, Ukrainian HUR (02.10), Andrii Sybiha (12.10). All facts and quotes correspond to the base text.

## FAQ

### What exactly does ISW forecast for Poland in the winter of 2026–2027?

The Institute for the Study of War warns of a likely increase in Russian sabotage and provocation activities within Poland. Railway and logistics infrastructure, as well as Western aid supply routes to Ukraine, are named as probable targets.

### What specific objects did Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk name?

Tusk pointed to transportation routes for gas, oil, and food to Ukraine, as well as logistics and railway infrastructure near the Polish-Ukrainian border.

### What did Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha state on October 12?

Sybiha stated that Russia's actions in Europe are already going beyond hybrid operations and have military characteristics: these are attacks leading to casualties and directed against strategically important objects.

### Is there confirmed data about the preparation of a specific attack?

No. Neither ISW, nor Polish, nor Ukrainian official figures name a specific date or object of a planned attack. All statements serve as warnings of an elevated threat during the winter period.