--- title: "ISW: Truce in Kostiantynivka — Possible Russian Preparation for Druzhkivka Offensive" description: "ISW believes that the Kremlin-proposed truce in Kostiantynivka under the pretext of civilian evacuation could serve as a cover for preparing a Russian offensive on Druzhkivka and the \"Fortress Belt\"." date: 2026-11-14T08:18:16.608Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/isw-truce-kostiantynivka-offensive-preparation tags: [ukraine-war, kostiantynivka, isw, ceasefire, russia, kremlin, frontline] author: "Alexander Buran" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # ISW: Truce in Kostiantynivka — Possible Russian Preparation for Druzhkivka Offensive ![Armed soldiers in camouflage and balaclavas patrol a combat zone road](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/14/isv-pereirie-konstantinovka-podgotovka-nastupleniya/isv-pereirie-konstantinovka-podgotovka-nastupleniya-1.webp) ## Key Points - On November 13, Peskov promoted Putin's initiative for a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka, claiming support from Witkoff and Kushner - ISW has recorded 41 Ukrainian positions in Kostiantynivka since September 1, 2026, refuting Russian claims of control over the city - ISW analysts believe the truce could be used by Russia to reinforce its grouping and prepare an offensive on Druzhkivka - The Oleshky format is inapplicable to Kostiantynivka due to a fundamentally different tactical situation on the frontline On November 13, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov once again publicly promoted Vladimir Putin's initiative to conduct a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka. According to Peskov, the proposal was voiced on November 12 during a meeting with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Peskov stated that the initiative should be a continuation of the humanitarian operation previously carried out in Oleshky, and urged American and European officials to pressure Ukraine into agreeing to a local truce. According to the Russian side, this would allow for the evacuation of civilians from the city. Peskov and Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov claim that Witkoff and Kushner “actively supported” this proposal. ### The Oleshky Precedent and Its Limitations The idea of a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka arose after a similar operation in Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, where a ceasefire regime was in effect from October 27 to November 1. The humanitarian convoy evacuated over 750 people: some went to Russian-controlled territory, while the majority returned to the Ukrainian-controlled side. US First Lady Melania Trump joined the operation. However, as analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasize, transferring this format to Kostiantynivka is impossible due to a fundamentally different frontline situation: Oleshky is under the full control of Russian troops and located about 3.7 km from the frontline, whereas Kostiantynivka remains an active combat zone. ### 41 Ukrainian Positions Versus Claims of "Control" ISW records that since September 1, 2026, signs of at least 41 Ukrainian defensive positions have been documented in and around Kostiantynivka. This directly contradicts Putin's statement on July 3, as well as months of assertions by Russian authorities that they have established control over the city. Thus, the city remains contested territory where both sides are conducting combat operations, making the “ceasefire” format analogous to Oleshky technically inapplicable without significant changes along the line of contact. ### Offensive on the "Fortress Belt": The Hidden Purpose of the Truce ISW analysts hypothesize that the Kremlin's true goal is not the evacuation of civilians, but the use of a temporary cessation of hostilities to build up military forces in the Kostiantynivka area. According to the institute's assessment, such a reinforcement would create conditions for offensive operations to the north, in the direction of Druzhkivka. This city is part of the most fortified sections of the Ukrainian defense line known as the “Fortress Belt.” A temporary truce, in ISW's logic, would give Russian troops the opportunity to rotate, pull up reserves, and prepare artillery support without the risk of shelling. ### The Ukrainian Side Warns of Risks Kyiv, in turn, has publicly warned that Russia could use any pause in hostilities to rotate troops and strengthen its own positions. The Ukrainian side has not confirmed agreement to a local truce in Kostiantynivka and has not commented on Peskov's statements regarding “support” from American negotiators. Against the backdrop of these contradictions, the Kremlin's initiative remains at the stage of a diplomatic proposal, unbacked by concrete control mechanisms or guarantees for the Ukrainian side. ## Accounts differ ### Control over Kostiantynivka - **Russian authorities (Putin's statement on July 3, months of assertions):** Russia has established control over Kostiantynivka ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/peremir-ya-kostyantinivtsi-mozhe-zigrati-1794643962.html)) - **Institute for the Study of War (ISW):** Since September 1, 2026, signs of at least 41 Ukrainian positions have been recorded in Kostiantynivka and its outskirts, contradicting claims of Russian control ([rbc.ua](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/peremir-ya-kostyantinivtsi-mozhe-zigrati-1794643962.html)) *Where they agree:* The city is in an active combat zone and is the subject of diplomatic interaction between the parties ## Fact-Check & Sources - [Перемирие в Константиновке может сыграть на руку РФ: ISW раскрыл замысел Кремля](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/peremir-ya-kostyantinivtsi-mozhe-zigrati-1794643962.html) - Primary source. Contains the full text of the ISW report, Peskov's statements on November 13, data on 41 Ukrainian positions, analysis of the tactical situation, and the hypothesis of offensive preparation. All facts in the article have been verified against the source text. ## FAQ ### What exactly did the Kremlin propose regarding Kostiantynivka? On November 12, Vladimir Putin proposed a humanitarian mission in Kostiantynivka modeled after Oleshky: a local truce for civilian evacuation. On November 13, Peskov stated that the initiative was supported by American negotiators Witkoff and Kushner. ### Why does ISW consider the Oleshky format inapplicable to Kostiantynivka? Oleshky is fully controlled by Russian troops and is 3.7 km from the frontline. Kostiantynivka remains an active combat zone with positions of both sides recorded, making a simple "ceasefire" technically impossible without additional conditions. ### What is the hidden purpose of the truce according to ISW's assessment? ISW believes Russia may use the pause to build up its military grouping in the Kostiantynivka area and prepare an offensive northward toward Druzhkivka, which is part of the Ukrainian defense's "Fortress Belt". ### How many Ukrainian positions have been recorded in Kostiantynivka? According to ISW, since September 1, 2026, signs of at least 41 Ukrainian defensive positions have been documented in Kostiantynivka and its outskirts.