--- title: "\"I'd Bet on Ukraine\": Former US Special Envoy Kellogg Says Balance of Power in War Has Shifted" description: "Former US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg stated that for the first time since 2023, Ukraine is gaining an advantage in the war. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Strikes on refineries have led to a fuel crisis in the Russian Federation and a record rise in gasoline prices. The expert is confident: right now, he would bet money on Ukraine's victory. πŸ“‰β›½" date: 2026-07-01T16:40:00.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/kellogg-says-balance-of-power-in-war-has-shifted-in-favor-of-ukraine tags: [] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # "I'd Bet on Ukraine": Former US Special Envoy Kellogg Says Balance of Power in War Has Shifted ![Former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Kellogg at a press conference, stating a shift in the balance of power in the war](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/01/kellogg-zayavil-o-smene-balansa-sil-v-polzu-ukrainy/kellogg-zayavil-o-smene-balansa-sil-v-polzu-ukrainy-1.webp) The balance of power in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is undergoing significant changes. According to experts in Washington, recent events on the front lines and in the rear areas indicate for the first time in a long while that the initiative has shifted to Kyiv. A key factor changing the landscape has been Ukraine's successful long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. ### Assessment by Former US Special Envoy Former US Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, emphasized in his recent statement that the current dynamics of the conflict differ radically from the situation in previous years. According to him, it is precisely now that one can observe a real advantage for Ukrainian forces. "For the first time since 2023, you see that Ukrainians are actually starting to gain an advantage over the Russians," Kellogg noted. He added that if he had to make a forecast on the outcome of the war today, he would bet on Ukraine. "Today, I would bet more money on the Ukrainians than on the Russians," the American diplomat summarized. ### Fuel Crisis and Russia's Logistics Problems A serious blow to the Russian economy and military potential was the fuel shortage that arose following attacks on oil refineries. Fuel problems have reached the point where a country that has been a major exporter of gasoline for years is now forced to seek it from its neighbors. Specifically, Moscow is negotiating with Kazakhstan about importing fuel. However, Astana is ready to discuss supplies only on its own terms, which complicates the situation for Russia. Furthermore, to mitigate the consequences of the shortage, Russia has begun importing gasoline from India by sea, which requires additional logistical costs and time. ### Economic Consequences and Rising Prices Despite import attempts, the domestic fuel situation remains tense. Gasoline prices in Russia have shown the most rapid growth in the last 20 years. This factor is putting pressure on both the civilian population and the military machine, which is experiencing a lack of resources. According to Kellogg, the change in the situation on the battlefield and in the rear could also influence the position of US President Donald Trump, who previously expressed skepticism about the duration of the conflict. Kyiv's current successes may force a rethinking of approaches to settlement.