--- title: "KIIS: 61% of Ukrainians Strongly Oppose Ceding Donbas to Russia in Exchange for Security Guarantees" description: "According to a KIIS poll, 61% of Ukrainians strongly oppose ceding Donbas to Russia in exchange for US and European security guarantees. Sociologists note that the pressure campaign did not increase the readiness to accept such a condition." date: 2026-10-19T11:31:25.385Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/kiis-61-percent-ukrainians-against-ceding-donbas tags: [ukraine-war, donbas, kmis-poll, security-guarantees, public-opinion] author: "Alexander Buran" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # KIIS: 61% of Ukrainians Strongly Oppose Ceding Donbas to Russia in Exchange for Security Guarantees ![Silhouettes of people holding Ukrainian flags against a bright sun and blue sky](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/19/kmis-61-ukraincev-protiv-peredachi-donbassa-za-garantii-bezopasnosti/kmis-61-ukraincev-protiv-peredachi-donbassa-za-garantii-bezopasnosti-1.webp) ## Key Points - 61% of Ukrainians strongly oppose ceding Donbas to Russia in exchange for US and European security guarantees, 35% consider the option possible but difficult, 7% agree without hesitation, 4% are undecided. - The KIIS survey was conducted on October 8–16, 2026 (1,031 respondents, margin of error up to 4%); the question has been asked regularly since January 2026. - The share of those strictly against rose from 57% (Oct 8–9) to 62% (Oct 10–16) — a difference within the margin of error, but according to KIIS, pressure did not increase readiness to accept the condition. - The highest 'against' figure is in Kyiv (66%); in the east (Kharkiv region) 45% are ready to approve, while in the South and Lower Dnieper region 60–66% are against. The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has published the results of a nationwide poll in which the majority of respondents rejected a peace scenario involving the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from government-controlled areas of Donbas and handing them over to Russian control in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe. The survey was conducted via telephone interviews from October 8 to 16, 2026, covering 1,031 respondents in government-controlled Ukrainian territory; the formal sampling error does not exceed 4%. According to the institute, sociologists have been asking respondents about this peace condition regularly since January 2026, allowing them to track the dynamics of public sentiment. ### How the Question Was Formulated In the survey, respondents were asked to evaluate a specific conflict-resolution condition: Ukraine withdraws its troops from government-controlled areas of Donbas, notably Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and these territories come under Russian control. In return, the US and Europe provide Ukraine with security guarantees. Sociologists view this scenario as one of several possible settlement options and have recorded attitudes toward it throughout 2026, comparing responses across consecutive waves. ### Main Results According to the current wave, 61% of those polled called such a condition completely unacceptable. Another 35% of respondents consider a similar option possible, though most characterize it as a difficult decision. Only 7% of survey participants would agree to accept such a condition without hesitation, while 4% remained undecided. Thus, an overwhelming majority rejects the scenario of ceding Donbas in exchange for external security guarantees. ### Dynamics: Before and After the "Diesel Agreement" Since the survey ran from October 8 to 16, sociologists were able to compare responses gathered before the announcement of the so-called "diesel agreement" and subsequent pressure on Ukraine with those gathered after it. Among respondents polled on October 8–9, 57% were strictly against this condition, compared to 62% among those polled on October 10–16. A KIIS press release emphasizes that formally this difference is within the margin of error; however, according to sociologists' assessments, the pressure campaign on Ukraine did not lead to a greater willingness to accept the respective proposal. Compared to late July and early August 2026, no noticeable changes in sentiment have been recorded either. ### Regional Picture Across all regions of Ukraine, half or a majority of respondents reject the proposed condition. The highest share of those ready to approve it was recorded in the east, predominantly in the Kharkiv region: 45% of respondents there would agree, while 51% are strictly against. In other regions, notably the South and the Lower Dnieper region, the share of those strictly against ranges from 60% to 66%. Formally, the maximum figure was recorded in the capital: despite the bombing campaign against Kyiv using ballistic missiles and attack drones, 66% of the city's residents are strictly against such a proposal, the highest reading among all regions. ### Context: Kyiv's Statements on Pressure The survey results were published amid statements from Ukraine's leadership regarding external pressure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously noted that Washington's decisions look like pressure aimed at forcing Ukraine into capitulation; among such steps, he cited restrictions on Starlink operations and delays in missile supplies for Patriot systems. According to RBK-Ukraine, presidential advisor Serhii Beskrestnov, known as "Flash", reported that military Starlink was restricted in Ukraine at speeds exceeding 160 kilometers per hour, noting that there was no prior warning, which he claimed disrupted several missions. Against this backdrop, KIIS data record a steady willingness among the majority of the population to reject concessions on Donbas in exchange for security guarantees. ## Fact-Check & Sources - [Большинство украинцев не готовы отдать Донбасс в обмен на гарантии безопасности, - опрос](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/bilshist-ukrayintsiv-gotovi-viddati-donbas-1792408912.html) - Primary source: 61% against, 35% consider possible, 7% agree, 4% undecided; dynamics 57%→62%; regional data; statements by Zelenskyy and Beskrestnov. - [КМИС – 61% украинцев категорически против вывода войск из Донбасса в обмен на гарантии ...](https://informator.ua/ru/kmis-61-ukraincev-kategoricheski-protiv-vyvoda-voysk-iz-donbassa-v-obmen-na-garantii-bezopasnosti) - Confirms 61%/35%/4%, survey dates Oct 8–16, 1,031 respondents, margin of error up to 4%, comparison before/after "diesel agreement". - [Готовы ли украинцы отдать России весь Донбасс в обмен на гарантии безопасности, - опрос](https://www.unian.net/society/gotovy-li-ukraincy-otdat-rossii-ves-donbass-v-obmen-na-garantii-bezopasnosti-opros-13533393.html) - Confirms 61% against, 35% in favor (difficult condition), 4% undecided; 57%→62% before/after; 66% in Kyiv. ## FAQ ### How many Ukrainians oppose ceding Donbas to Russia in exchange for security guarantees? According to the KIIS poll (October 8–16, 2026), 61% of respondents called this condition completely unacceptable. Another 35% consider the option possible, though most view it as a difficult decision, 7% would agree without hesitation, and 4% could not answer. ### How did sentiment change before and after the announcement of the "diesel agreement"? Among respondents polled on October 8–9, 57% were strictly against, compared to 62% among those polled on October 10–16. KIIS notes that the difference is formally within the margin of error, but the pressure campaign did not lead to a higher readiness to accept the proposal. ### Which region has the highest opposition to this condition? Formally, the maximum figure is in Kyiv, where 66% of capital residents are strictly against. In the South and Lower Dnieper region, 60–66% are against, while in the east (mostly Kharkiv region) 45% are ready to approve and 51% are against.