---
title: "The Lancet Commission Names 17 Threats That Could Destroy Humanity by 2100"
description: "The Lancet Commission has identified 17 major threats to humanity through 2100, ranging from obesity and climate change to malicious AI and nuclear conflict, which could threaten the very extinction of the species."
date: 2026-10-17T12:42:07.624Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/lancet-17-threats-humanity-2100
tags: [the-lancet, global-health, artificial-intelligence, nuclear-risk, climate-change, public-health]
author: "Alexander Buran"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# The Lancet Commission Names 17 Threats That Could Destroy Humanity by 2100

![Destroyed post-apocalyptic landscape with water, dead trees, and a gloomy sky](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/17/lancet-17-ugroz-chelovechestvu-do-2100/lancet-17-ugroz-chelovechestvu-do-2100-1.webp)

## Key Points

- The Lancet Commission of 35 experts identified 17 main threats to human health and survival for the 2025–2100 period.
- The malicious use of AI and large-scale nuclear conflict were categorized as scenarios capable of leading to human extinction.
- In rich countries, non-communicable diseases (obesity, mental health) pose the main threat, while in poor nations social factors and low education dominate.
- Cutting international health aid could cost up to 1.5 billion healthy life years by 2100, with nearly 70% of losses in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Keeping warming at 1.8°C instead of 4.4°C will preserve 1.89 billion healthy life years.

The international Lancet Commission on global health threats in the 21st century has published a comprehensive report systematizing 17 major factors that could threaten human health and existence between 2025 and 2100. The findings, prepared by 35 leading global experts, were presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin. The researchers analyzed data from 204 countries and territories to assess how much potential damage civilization can still prevent.

### The DALYs Metric and a Map of 17 Threats

To compare the scale of various risks, the authors used the DALYs metric—the number of healthy life years lost due to disease, disability, or premature death. This approach allowed expressing the consequences of both chronic conditions and existential scenarios in uniform units. Among the 17 highlighted threats are climate change, air pollution, military conflicts, economic inequality, and the dangerous use of new technologies. The commission emphasizes that these threats are interconnected, making piecemeal responses ineffective.

### Two Scenarios That Could Lead to Extinction

Experts categorized two threats as potentially capable of causing civilization's collapse: the malicious use of artificial intelligence and a large-scale nuclear conflict. In the first case, concerns stem from the possibility that new technologies could facilitate the creation of dangerous biological agents and weapons. In the second, consequences would extend beyond immediate destruction: scientists warn of the threat of "nuclear famine," where post-war climate changes drastically reduce food production. While the probability of both scenarios is assessed as relatively low, their consequences are described as catastrophic.

### The Geography of Risks: Obesity in Rich Nations, Education in Poor Ones

The structure of threats varies significantly depending on regional income levels. In wealthy countries, the primary danger comes from non-communicable diseases—primarily obesity and mental health issues. In poor regions, most healthy life losses are driven by social factors and low levels of education. This means there are no universal recipes: healthcare policy must account for local risk specifics.

### The Cost of Aid Cuts and the Climate Scenario

The commission paid special attention to cuts in international aid budgets by key donors. According to the authors' calculations, a collapse or significant reduction in healthcare grants could cost humanity up to 1.5 billion healthy life years by 2100, with nearly 70% of these losses occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, keeping global warming at 1.8°C instead of a pessimistic 4.4°C scenario would preserve 1.89 billion healthy life years, according to the researchers.

### "Not to Intimidate, but to Provide a Risk Map"

The researchers emphasize that the goal of the report is not to frighten society, but to provide governments with a clear risk map for effective decision-making. The commission plans to update its ranking annually, urging leaders to invest in proper technological innovations and systematically strengthen healthcare systems to reduce population vulnerability to crises.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Не только ИИ и ядерный конфликт: ученые назвали 17 главных угроз человечеству](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/lishe-shi-ta-derniy-konflikt-vcheni-nazvali-1791799531.html) - Primary source: 17 threats, DALYs metric, AI and nuclear conflict scenarios, income breakdown, 1.5 bln years from aid cuts, 1.89 bln from climate scenario, 35 experts, Berlin.
- [От искусственного интеллекта до ожирения: ученые назвали 17 главных угроз человечеству](https://mixnews.lv/v-mire/2026/10/13/ot-iskusstvennogo-intellekta-do-ozhireniya-uchenye-nazvali-17-glavnyh-ugroz-chelovechestvu/) - Confirms the 2025–2100 period, 204 countries, two existential scenarios (AI and nuclear famine), Berlin summit.
- [Ученые назвали 17 угроз здоровью и выживанию человечества в XXI веке](https://kz.kursiv.media/2026-10-15/lsbs-uchenye-nazvali-17-ugroz-zdorovyu-i-vyzhivaniyu-chelovechestva-v-xxi-veke/) - Confirms the category of extinction threats (AI, nuclear conflict) and the interconnectedness of risks.
- [Ученые назвали ИИ одной из угроз выживанию человечества](https://eanews.ru/mir/20261014121317/uchenye-nazvali-ii-odnoy-iz-ugroz-vyzhivaniyu-chelovechestva) - Confirms The Lancet commission's conclusion regarding threats from AI and nuclear conflict through 2100.

## FAQ

### How many threats did The Lancet commission identify and for what period?

The commission identified 17 main threats to human health and survival for the period from 2025 to 2100, analyzing data from 204 countries and territories.

### Which two scenarios could lead to human extinction?

Experts categorized the malicious use of artificial intelligence and a large-scale nuclear conflict, including the risk of "nuclear famine," as scenarios capable of causing civilization's collapse.

### How do risks differ between rich and poor countries?

In wealthy nations, non-communicable diseases like obesity and mental health issues are the main danger, whereas in poor regions most losses are linked to social factors and low education levels.

### What will happen if international health aid is cut?

According to the authors' calculations, a collapse or significant reduction in grants could cost up to 1.5 billion healthy life years by 2100, with nearly 70% of losses concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.