---
title: "Marine Le Pen is back in the lead: how the court and polls are reshaping the French presidential race"
description: "Marine Le Pen is back in the lead in polls ahead of the 2027 elections in France 🇫🇷. Despite the trial regarding embezzlement, she is polling 35% in the first round and confidently advancing to the second. The gap with Édouard Philippe in the final is minimal — 51% against 49%. ⚖️📉"
date: 2026-07-09T14:09:11.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/marin-le-pen-lead-france-elections-2027-polls-en
tags: []
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Marine Le Pen is back in the lead: how the court and polls are reshaping the French presidential race

![Marine Le Pen at a press conference with media microphones, discussing poll results and court rulings affecting the French presidential race](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/09/marin-le-pen-lead-france-elections-2027-polls/marin-le-pen-lead-france-elections-2027-polls-1.webp)

The political landscape in France ahead of the 2027 elections is undergoing significant changes. Fresh sociological monitoring conducted by the Toluna Harris Interactive institute for media giants M6 and RTL records Marine Le Pen's return to the top of the ratings. The leader of the "National Rally" party demonstrates a stable lead in hypothetical presidential campaign scenarios, despite recent legal proceedings related to the misuse of European Parliament funds.

### Balance of power in the first round: who is fighting for power

According to the basic scenario of the poll, assuming independent candidacies from the center-right and liberals remain, Marine Le Pen confidently leads with a score of 35% of the vote. This places her in the position of a favorite capable of guaranteed advancement to the second round.

Following her are representatives of other political forces:

- Jean-Luc Mélenchon ("Unbowed France") — 16% of the vote;

- Édouard Philippe (leader of the Horizons party, former Prime Minister) — 14% of the vote;

- Gabriel Attal (former Prime Minister, "Renaissance" party) — 8% of the vote.

Analysts also tested a scenario of consolidation on the right flank. If Gabriel Attal withdraws his candidacy in favor of Édouard Philippe, the latter could accumulate up to 20% of the vote. In such a configuration, Mélenchon would move to third place, while Le Pen's support would adjust slightly to 34%, which would still ensure her advancement to the final from first place.

### The Final: narrowing the gap and the legal context

Second-round forecasts show that the race could become more intense than previously assumed. In the Le Pen — Philippe matchup, votes are distributed in a ratio of 51% to 49% in favor of the leader of the "National Rally". This indicates a narrowing of the gap: previous measurements recorded Le Pen's lead at 52% to 48%.

The dynamics of candidate support look as follows:

- Marine Le Pen: 51% (a 1% decrease compared to the previous poll);

- Édouard Philippe: 49% (a 1% increase).

The activation of Le Pen's public campaign coincided with an important court ruling. On July 7, 2026, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld the guilty verdict in the case of embezzlement of European funds, but mitigated the restrictive measures. The court shortened the term of the ban on participating in elections, allowing Le Pen to officially announce her candidacy.

### Legal prospects and opponents' reaction

The court's decision sparked criticism from political opponents, including the leader of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure. However, parallel studies by Ifop and Elabe agencies show that the candidate's legal status has not yet dealt a destructive blow to her core electorate.

The appeal procedure in France provides for filing a cassation appeal to the Supreme Court of Cassation (Cour de Cassation). The final verdict is expected before the start of registration procedures in 2027. Until then, Marine Le Pen retains full rights to conduct political and election campaign activities, allowing her to continue her fight for the presidential chair.