---
title: "Marketing Under Pressure: How the War Compressed Ukrainian Business Planning Horizons"
description: "In 2026, Ukrainian businesses shortened their marketing planning horizons due to the war and uncertainty. According to KPMG and EBA data, 57% of CEOs cite geopolitics as a key factor for short-term decisions, while investments continue, but ROI requirements have tightened."
date: 2026-10-21T12:01:40.183Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/marketing-under-pressure-planning-horizon
tags: [marketing, ukraine-business, war-economy, brand-strategy, roi, kpmg, eba]
author: "Andrey Kosynko"
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Marketing Under Pressure: How the War Compressed Ukrainian Business Planning Horizons

![A human hand touching a touchscreen displaying stock market charts and green candles](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/21/marketing-pod-davleniem-kak-voyna-szhala-gorizont-planirovaniya/marketing-pod-davleniem-kak-voyna-szhala-gorizont-planirovaniya-1.webp)

## Key Points

- The marketing planning horizon in Ukraine has shrunk: businesses are shifting to an efficiency-first logic with regular reviews of every channel
- 57% of Ukrainian CEOs cite geopolitical instability as a driver of short-term decisions (KPMG CEO Outlook 2025), compared to 11% globally
- Investments have not stopped: 20% of companies plan major projects worth ~$14 million, 74% are adopting AI for optimization
- The risk of completely abandoning long-term branding is losing a place in the consumer's mind when demand recovers

Just a few years ago, an annual marketing strategy in Ukraine was a fairly stable document: a company would define its goals, budget, media mix, major campaigns, and only make targeted adjustments to individual elements throughout the year. By 2026, the very idea of planning has not disappeared, but the horizon over which businesses are willing to make irreversible decisions has fundamentally changed. The annual budget and strategy formally remain, but in parallel, far more decisions go through regular review: whether demand has held up, whether the channel works, whether its contribution to sales can be proven, and whether cost price, logistics, team availability, and energy and security conditions have changed. According to Natalia Morozova, CEO of HAVAS Village, marketing in Ukraine is increasingly operating on an efficiency-first logic: every investment must have a clear role, a measurable result, and the ability to quickly adjust its scale.

### Planning Horizons Have Shrunk to a Quarter

For Ukrainian business, this behavior is logical, and the question is not why companies have become more cautious, but how to increase efficiency today without giving up growth drivers whose results will only become noticeable in a year or two. A shorter planning horizon is often explained by general «uncertainty,» but for Ukraine, this concept breaks down into very specific factors: war, staff shortages, energy risks, and significantly lower environmental predictability. In such an environment, the ability to revise a decision has economic value: the further in the future the expected return on investment lies, the more factors can alter the initial calculation. Hence the pursuit of shorter verification cycles, more flexible contracts, phased financing, and tools where results are easier to tie to business metrics.

### The Numbers of Uncertainty: What Polls Say

According to the KPMG CEO Outlook 2025, 57% of Ukrainian CEOs cited geopolitical instability as a factor driving short-term decisions — compared to only 11% of global leaders. At the same time, 55% of Ukrainian respondents rated flexibility and speed of decision-making under pressure as critically important managerial competencies, and another 54% cited the ability to identify and manage risks. Ukrainian CEOs' confidence in the growth of their own companies stood at 49%, compared to 76% in 2021. A February European Business Association survey titled «Business During Wartime,» conducted among 131 top managers, confirms more cautious expectations: the share of executives with a positive assessment of their business condition fell from 40% to 32%, while negative assessments rose from 14% to 23%. Deteriorating conditions throughout 2026 were expected by 39% of respondents, up from 29% a year earlier. Nearly half — 47% — did not expect the war to end in 2026 at the time of the survey, while another 29% had no clear forecast.

### Investments Continue, But the Rules Have Changed

At the same time, Ukrainian companies have not stopped investing. The EBA survey «Business Forecasts for 2026» showed that 20% of companies planned major investment projects with an average cost of about $14 million, compared to 16% and $9 million a year earlier. 77% of executives expected revenue growth in hryvnias. 74% of companies planned to use artificial intelligence to optimize or increase process efficiency — in analytics, sales, marketing, and customer communication. The market has not shifted into total austerity mode: businesses continue to invest, but requirements for every investment have tightened. Especially telling in this context is a comment from the International Marketing Initiatives Association within the All-Ukrainian Advertising Coalition's forecast for trade and consumer marketing: activity is concentrated in retail, where advertisers choose solutions with clear and predictable ROI.

### Efficiency-First: What It Means in Practice

Money moves where businesses see a shorter path between investment and results, more data for evaluation, and the ability to rapidly change spending volumes. The pressure on productivity has become global, and for Ukraine, it is exacerbated by specific factors. In times of uncertainty, businesses naturally gravitate toward what can be quickly seen on a dashboard: cost per lead, sales, conversion, ROAS, repeat purchases. The logic is transparent: when a CFO needs to choose between two budget items, the one where the link to financial results looks more obvious often gets the advantage. WARC Marketer's research confirms that globally, marketing budgets are shifting toward measurable channels, and brand investments with a delayed effect become the first candidates for revision.

### The Danger of the Short Horizon

The main risk of such a strategy is not that businesses lose money on «ineffective» campaigns, but that they systematically underinvest in what builds long-term brand value: awareness, loyalty, and emotional connection with the audience. The result of these investments appears in a year or two, and in a context where 47% of executives do not expect the war to end in 2026, this very horizon becomes the most vulnerable. Companies that completely abandon branding in favor of pure performance marketing risk finding themselves in a situation where, at the moment demand recovers, their brand does not occupy a place in the consumer's mind. The challenge set by Natalia Morozova is not to bring back pre-war five-year strategies, but to build a flexible model where today's efficiency does not contradict investments in tomorrow's growth.

## Fact-Check & Sources

- [Маркетинг под давлением: как более короткий горизонт планирования изменил решение бизнеса](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/marketing-pid-tiskom-k-korotshiy-gorizont-1792583781.html) - Original source — a column by Natalia Morozova (CEO of HAVAS Village) in RBC-Ukraine. All cited data (KPMG CEO Outlook 2025, EBA 'Business During Wartime', EBA 'Business Forecasts for 2026', IAM commentary) are provided in the column text. The source cuts off at the mention of WARC Marketer's; specific WARC figures are not included in the baseline.

## FAQ

### What is efficiency-first logic in marketing?

It is an approach where every marketing investment must have a clear role, a measurable result, and the ability to quickly adjust its scale. Businesses abandon long-term 'blind' investments in favor of channels where the link to sales is transparent.

### Have marketing budgets in Ukraine decreased in 2026?

The market has not entered a total austerity mode. According to EBA data, 20% of companies are planning major investment projects with an average cost of about $14 million, and 77% of executives expect revenue growth in hryvnias. However, requirements for each specific investment have tightened.

### What percentage of Ukrainian CEOs link short-term decisions to geopolitical instability?

According to the KPMG CEO Outlook 2025, 57% of Ukrainian CEOs named geopolitical instability as a factor driving short-term decisions. Among global leaders, this figure was 11%.

### What is the danger of completely abandoning long-term branding?

The results of brand investments appear in a year or two. By completely abandoning them, a company risks losing its place in the consumer's mind by the time demand recovers and competition for attention intensifies.