---
title: "NATO Planners in Closed Session: Europe Cannot Sustain a Prolonged War of Attrition with Russia"
description: "According to The Guardian, at a closed roundtable in the United Kingdom, NATO military planners stated that Europe is not ready to withstand a prolonged war of attrition with Russia. The pessimism is compounded by the rise of right-wing parties and the impending reduction of US defense commitments."
date: 2026-09-05T23:14:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/nato-fears-europe-cannot-sustain-prolonged-war-with-russia
tags: [nato, europe-defense, hybrid-war, russia, uk, munich-security-conference]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# NATO Planners in Closed Session: Europe Cannot Sustain a Prolonged War of Attrition with Russia

![NATO soldier in camouflage against the alliance flag and an anti-aircraft gun](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/05/nato-opasaetsya-chto-evropa-ne-vyderzhit-zatyazhnuyu-vojnu-s-rossiey/nato-opasaetsya-chto-evropa-ne-vyderzhit-zatyazhnuyu-vojnu-s-rossiey-1.webp)

## 🎯 Key Points

- At a closed European Defense Roundtable in the United Kingdom, NATO planners expressed concern that Europe cannot withstand a prolonged war of attrition with Russia.
- The rise in support for right-wing parties in key European countries threatens the initiative to create the "E5" coordination group against the backdrop of the impending reduction of US defense commitments.
- British diplomats acknowledged that the West had poorly informed the public about the scale of the hybrid conflict with Russia, which is deepening political fragmentation.

Military planners working within the NATO system are expressing concern that, in the event of a direct conflict with Russia, Europe is currently unable to withstand a prolonged war of attrition due to insufficient combat readiness. According to The Guardian, this became known during a closed-door European Defense Roundtable, organized by the Munich Security Conference and held this week in the United Kingdom. In the publication's assessment, the pessimism voiced in the closed format reflects a fear that Russia may prevail in the so-called "hybrid war" against Europe, thereby weakening the options available to NATO's military planners in the event of an actual armed confrontation.

### Closed Roundtable and Assessment of Combat Readiness

The key conclusion, according to The Guardian, that emerged among the participants of the discussion is that the current level of preparedness of European armies does not allow for any expectation of waging a prolonged war of attrition. This is not about a one-off operation, but about a scenario in which the ability of the parties to maintain and restore combat potential over months and years becomes the decisive factor. It is precisely in this horizon that planners see the vulnerability of the European side: reserves, logistics, and the tempo of replenishment, in their view, do not yet meet the requirements of a protracted conflict with an adversary such as Russia.

### Hybrid War and Political Fragmentation

A second, no less alarming aspect for European elites is the political one. The Guardian points to a sharp rise in support for right-wing parties in key European military states, which, according to participants, in itself has become an instrument of Moscow's hybrid pressure. One of the recently elected members of the UK cabinet acknowledged that the West had "poorly" informed the public about the scale of the hybrid conflict with Russia. Another British diplomat added that successive UK prime ministers had effectively done nothing to explain the scale of the threat, leaving ministers with an "enviable task" — convincing unprepared voters to cut social spending in order to fund defense. In his words, the dismantling of the Cold War dividing line has allowed Moscow to freely exploit the anxieties of European society, both left- and right-wing. These remarks, the publication notes, reflect a broader concern among senior European politicians that they may be losing the hybrid war, which is expected to be reflected in a rise in right-populist sentiment next year in Poland, France, and Italy.

### The "E5" Problem and the Reassessment of US Commitments

Against this backdrop, the institutional initiative to create the so-called "E5" group — a coordination body of five European countries, including the United Kingdom, intended to take on a new role in military coordination — is also under threat. As The Guardian emphasizes, this initiative was seen as a response to the US's impending reduction of its commitments to Europe's conventional defense. The rise of right-wing forces in key states makes reaching consensus within the "E5" more difficult, and thus deprives the European side of one of the potential mechanisms for independent coordination at a moment when American support may become less predictable.

### Contradictory Data

A notable gap is visible between public rhetoric and closed-door assessments. On the one hand, on official platforms — including in the context of the July NATO summit, as reported by Euronews and Ukrainian media — Europe is demonstrating readiness to take its defense into its own hands, relying in part on the experience and support of Ukraine, while Zelensky's administration explains that the West expects a transformation of NATO and that Ukraine may become a guarantee of Europe's security. On the other hand, it is precisely in the closed format that planners speak of Europe's inability to withstand a war of attrition and of losing the hybrid war. In addition, the article mentions yesterday's publication by The Express stating that, according to Western security sources, Russia is "testing the limits of the acceptable" in its confrontation with NATO and is preparing a wave of targeted killings and sabotage in Europe; this assessment is more speculative in nature and is not corroborated by other independent sources in the cited materials, so it should be treated as a separate, less verified claim.

### Context: Exercises Near Iceland Without US Participation

Additional context is provided by recent exercises during which NATO allies gathered in the area of Iceland to practice the search for and hunting of Russian submarines. According to media reports, for the first time in the multi-year history of these maneuvers, the United States did not take part. This fact, alongside the closed assessments of the planners, reinforces the overall narrative that the European side is forced to contemplate defense scenarios in conditions where American involvement is becoming less guaranteed, and its own readiness, by the admission of European military and political figures themselves, is still insufficient for a protracted conflict.

## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification

- [NATO fears Europe will not be able to withstand a war with Russia - The Guardian](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/nato-poboyuyutsya-shcho-evropa-zmozhe-vitrimati-1788649259.html) - Перекрёстно подтверждает основную новость: опасения планировщиков НАТО, закрытый круглый стол, гибридная война, рост правых партий, инициатива «Е5» и пересмотр обязательств США.
- [Europe is not ready for a prolonged war with Russia: defense planning experts name the risks](https://zn.ua/europe/evropa-ne-hotova-k-zatjazhnoj-vojne-s-rossiej-spetsialisty-po-oboronnomu-planirovaniju-nazvali-riski.html) - Подтверждает тезис о недостаточной готовности Европы к затяжной войне и рисках, названных специалистами по оборонному планированию.
- [NATO summit: Europe demonstrates readiness to take its defense into its own hands. Ukraine will help](https://ru.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/07/09/evropa-dokazyvaet-gotovnost-vzyat-oboronu-v-svoi-ruki-ej-pomozhet-ukraina) - Даёт публичный нарратив готовности Европы к обороне (июльский саммит), который контрастирует с закрытым пессимизмом планировщиков; использован в блоке «Противоречивые данные».
- [NATO needs to transform: Zelensky's administration explains why the West expects it to ...](https://24tv.ua/ru/ukraina-mozhet-stat-zalogom-bezopasnosti-evropy-zapadu-sleduet_n3134003) - Контекст по трансформации НАТО и роли Украины как залогом безопасности Европы; дополняет блок о публичной риторике готовности.

## ❓ FAQ

### Q: Where and under what circumstances were NATO's concerns about Europe's readiness voiced?
**A:** According to The Guardian, they were voiced at a closed European Defense Roundtable, organized by the Munich Security Conference and held this week in the United Kingdom.

### Q: What is the "E5" initiative and why is it under threat?
**A:** The "E5" is a proposed group of five European countries, including the United Kingdom, for a new coordination role in defense. It is under threat due to the rise in support for right-wing parties in key states and the US's impending reduction of commitments to Europe's conventional defense.

### Q: What is the contradiction in assessments of Europe's readiness?
**A:** Publicly, including at the July NATO summit, Europe is demonstrating readiness to take its defense into its own hands with the support of Ukraine, whereas in the closed format military planners speak of an inability to withstand a prolonged war of attrition and of losing the hybrid war.