--- title: "NATO Prepares for the Worst: What Europe Expects from Trump After US Elections" description: "According to five NATO diplomats, European allies are bracing for the worst-case scenario after US elections: if Republicans lose Congress, Trump could step up criticism of the alliance and cut troops in Europe." date: 2026-11-02T12:20:29.696Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/nato-prepares-for-worst-trump-after-us-elections tags: [nato, us-midterms, trump, europe, military, congress] author: "Alexander Buran" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # NATO Prepares for the Worst: What Europe Expects from Trump After US Elections ![Donald Trump speaking at a press conference, pointing forward during an important political statement](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/02/nato-gotovitsya-k-resheniyam-trampa-posle-vyborov-v-ssha/nato-gotovitsya-k-resheniyam-trampa-posle-vyborov-v-ssha-1.webp) ## Key Points - Five NATO diplomats report that European allies are preparing for the worst-case scenario following the US midterm elections. - Three diplomats concede the withdrawal of thousands more US troops from Europe if Republicans lose control of Congress. - Scenarios include cutting the US contribution to the NATO budget, restricting the PURL program, and tying troop presence to a Ukraine peace deal. - The White House is preparing mechanisms to implement its agenda via executive decisions without legislative support. According to five alliance diplomats, European NATO allies are beginning preparations for the worst-case scenario following the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. The main concern in Brussels and European capitals is that if the Republican Party loses control of Congress, President Donald Trump will face domestic policy obstacles and, as commander-in-chief, will be able to focus more heavily on foreign policy decisions where he retains broad freedom of action. According to diplomats' assessments, this exact scenario could lead to a new escalation in Washington's relations with European partners. ### What NATO Diplomats Are Saying Three out of five interviewed diplomats note that one potential consequence could be the withdrawal of thousands more US troops from Europe. A high-ranking European defense official, whose remarks are cited by the publication, characterizes the typical behavior of a lame-duck president as a combination of "venting frustrations and adventurism" in foreign policy. According to him, criticism of NATO has long been "an integral part of Trump's worldview," making escalating rhetoric a predictable risk. ### Scenarios: From Troop Withdrawals to Budgets Additional concern in Europe is caused by the upcoming review of US troop levels on the continent, which is expected to be conducted before December. Three NATO diplomats concede that if Trump faces difficulties advancing domestic legislative initiatives, he might pursue a more massive reduction of the military contingent to secure the support of the MAGA movement's base. Other discussed scenarios include conditioning the continued presence of US troops in Europe on European countries' willingness to agree to a peace deal for Ukraine backed by Washington, as well as cutting the US contribution to the joint NATO budget and restricting participation in the PURL program, through which allies purchase American weaponry for Ukraine. ### Background: Trump's Approval and Relations with Russia Within the US itself, analysts expect Democrats to win a majority in the House of Representatives and potentially alter the balance of power in the Senate. Against this backdrop, Trump's approval rating has reportedly dropped to its lowest level during his presidency. Tensions between the US and European nations, according to diplomats, have already intensified following the halt of US support for Ukraine regarding Starlink satellite communications, as well as amid Trump's rapprochement with Vladimir Putin. Diplomats do not rule out further deepening of ties between the US and Russia. ### What the White House is Preparing The Trump administration is reportedly preparing in advance for a potential transition of Congress to Democratic control. The White House is already looking for ways to continue implementing the president's agenda without legislative support—specifically through executive actions. A more radical scenario is also mentioned separately: if the Republican Party performs poorly in the midterms, Trump might lean toward a large-scale military operation against Iran. For Europe, all these listed options boil down to a single conclusion: the coming months will require readiness for intensified pressure from Washington on the alliance. ## Fact-Check & Sources - [В НАТО готовятся к новым нападкам Трампа в случае поражения республиканцев на выборах, - СМИ](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/nato-gotuyutsya-novih-napadok-trampa-razi-1793621593.html) - Single source; relies on anonymous statements from five NATO diplomats and one European defense official. Specific figures (withdrawal of 'thousands more' troops) are not detailed. There is no public denial or confirmation from the US/NATO in the source material. ## FAQ ### Why are European countries apprehensive about the US election results? According to NATO diplomats, if Republicans lose control of Congress, Trump will face domestic policy obstacles and can focus more on foreign policy decisions where he has more freedom of action, potentially straining relations with Europe. ### What specific measures are being discussed within NATO? Diplomats mention the possible withdrawal of thousands more US troops from Europe, cuts to the US contribution to the joint NATO budget, restrictions on the PURL program, conditioning troop presence on a Ukraine peace agreement, and deepening US-Russia ties. ### When is the review of US troop levels in Europe scheduled to take place? According to the underlying data, the review of US troop numbers in Europe is expected to be conducted before December.