---
title: "The exchange rate won't go to space: NBU assesses export blockade risks and forecasts $2.5 billion losses"
description: "The NBU stated that the hryvnia exchange rate will not skyrocket despite the blockade of maritime exports. The head of the regulator, Andriy Pyshnyy, confirmed the availability of reserves for interventions but warned of a $2.5 billion loss in revenue this year. 📉🇺🇦"
date: 2026-07-30T12:38:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/nbu-assesses-export-blockade-risks-and-forecasts-2-5-billion-losses
tags: [nbu, andrey-pyshnyy, ukraine-economy, grivna, export-blockade]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# The exchange rate won't go to space: NBU assesses export blockade risks and forecasts $2.5 billion losses

![Hands holding dollar bills against stock market charts, illustrating export blockage risks and projected losses of $2.5 billion as assessed by the NBU.](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/30/nbu-otsenil-riski-blokirovki-eksporta-i-sprognoziroval-poteri/nbu-otsenil-riski-blokirovki-eksporta-i-sprognoziroval-poteri-1.webp)

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is confident that blocking the maritime export of agricultural and metallurgical products will not lead to an uncontrollable rise in the exchange rate. The head of the regulator, Andriy Pyshnyy, stated that regulation mechanisms are well-tested and the regime of managed flexibility is functioning effectively.

### Regulator's Position: Control over the Situation

During a briefing on monetary policy, Andriy Pyshnyy emphasized that the National Bank is fully aware of existing risks and is ready to cover them. According to him, dangerous volatility in the market will be promptly mitigated. The NBU confirmed that the current volume of foreign exchange reserves is sufficient for conducting interventions in the interbank market.

"The exchange rate won't go to space. The mechanisms for regulating the foreign exchange market, ensuring stable regimes, are well-tested, so we do not expect additional nervousness or additional negative impacts," commented the head of the NBU.

### Decrease in Demand for Foreign Currency

Deputy Head of the NBU, Yuriy Geletiy, presented data indicating a stabilization of the situation. According to him, in July, the gross demand for foreign currency decreased compared to the previous month. Currently, the average daily net demand in the interbank market is about $150 million, whereas in June, this figure reached $170 million.

The situation remains under control in the cash market as well. Demand for foreign currency among the population is also showing a decline:

- Peak figures in March were $44 million per day;

- In June, demand dropped to $23 million;

- Currently, the figure stands at $20 million per day.

The difference between the cash and official exchange rates (spread) is at 0.2%, which the regulator considers a negligible deviation.

### Financial Losses and Forecast

Despite confidence in the stability of the exchange rate, Andriy Pyshnyy acknowledged that the halt in exports will affect the economy. This year, the foreign exchange market will miss out on approximately $2.5 billion in export revenue. However, the regulator expects these funds to be received in the first half of 2027.

### Reasons for Export Halt

The de facto blockade of shipments occurred against the backdrop of escalating air attacks on Black Sea port infrastructure and civilian vessels. In July, at least six attacks on commercial vessels were recorded, resulting in the death or injury of 44 crew members.

This forced key market players to suspend their activities. The specialized association "All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council" announced a halt in shipments of agro-industrial complex products, while several mining and enrichment plants stopped exporting iron ore pellets. UN representatives have already stated that the aggressor's actions threaten global food security.