--- title: "NBU: Russian strikes on logistics will add 0.4–0.6 p.p. to inflation by the end of 2026" description: "The NBU has estimated the additional contribution of logistics restructuring after Russian strikes at 0.4–0.6 p.p. to annual inflation by the end of 2026. The regulator does not expect a sharp spike in prices." date: 2026-09-09T09:26:01.000Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/nbu-estimates-impact-of-strikes-on-logistics-on-inflation-2026 tags: [ukraine-inflation, nbu, logistics-infrastructure, russian-strikes, consumer-prices] publisher: "XAB.info" --- # NBU: Russian strikes on logistics will add 0.4–0.6 p.p. to inflation by the end of 2026 ![National Bank of Ukraine building: NBU assesses impact of Russian strikes on logistics for 2026 inflation](https://xab.info/media/2026/09/09/nbu-ocenil-vliyanie-udarov-po-logistike-na-inflyatsiyu-2026/nbu-ocenil-vliyanie-udarov-po-logistike-na-inflyatsiyu-2026-1.webp) ## 🎯 Key Points - The NBU estimates the additional contribution of logistics restructuring after Russian strikes at 0.4–0.6 p.p. to annual inflation by the end of 2026. - Earlier, the regulator worsened its inflation forecast: for 2026 — from 9.4% to 10%, for 2027 — from 6.5% to 6.9%. - The main impact on prices will manifest in the autumn; there is no talk of a sharp spike due to competition and weak demand. - Logistics and storage account for about 8% of the average consumer price; in July, inflation accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year. The National Bank of Ukraine has assessed the impact of Russian attacks on logistics infrastructure on the dynamics of consumer prices. According to an estimate by the Deputy Governor of the regulator, Vladimir Lepushynsky, set out in his column and reported by RBC-Ukraine, the rerouting of supply chains and rising costs of transportation and storage could additionally raise annual inflation by 0.4–0.6 percentage points by the end of 2026. The regulator emphasizes that the baseline scenario, updated at the end of July, did not account for the new strikes on logistics infrastructure and its destruction, so this effect was excluded from the previously published forecasts. ### Regulator's estimate: contribution to inflation Earlier, the NBU had already worsened its inflation forecast: for 2026 — from 9.4% to 10%, and for 2027 — from 6.5% to 6.9%. The additional contribution from the restructuring of logistics, according to Lepushynsky, will be added on top of these figures. The Deputy Governor of the NBU noted that the main impact on prices will manifest in the autumn, when the accumulated effects of the reformatting of supply chains and rising costs of storage and delivery are fully reflected in retail prices. Thus, the final level of annual inflation by the end of 2026 may turn out to be higher than the baseline forecast by exactly the magnitude of this logistics factor. ### Why the regulator does not expect a sharp spike in prices The NBU explicitly stated that there is no talk of a sharp spike in prices: the effect will be spread over time and is partially contained by the competitive environment and weaker demand. Lepushynsky explained that damage to warehouses or distribution centers does not mean an automatic transfer of all losses into the cost of goods. In his estimate, logistics and storage account for about 8% of the average consumer price, and due to competition, businesses may pass on to consumers only part of the additional costs. This means that even with a significant increase in transportation costs, the final price increase will be moderate and distributed over time. ### Dynamics of consumer prices in July and August The regulator reminded that in July, consumer inflation accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year after 7.2% in June. According to the NBU's preliminary estimates, price growth continued in August, although inflation turned out to be somewhat above the bank's July forecast trajectory. This confirms that price pressure is already present and will intensify in the autumn period as the logistics effect built into the updated estimate materializes. ### Contradictory data There is a certain inconsistency in the emphasis in public statements on the topic. On the one hand, it was previously reported that Russian attacks on warehouses and logistics facilities have significantly complicated the work of the food sector: a significant part of modern facilities for storing products has already been destroyed, and in some places losses reach 90%. On the other hand, both the NBU and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food insist on the absence of a systemic shortage of basic products and that there will be no sharp spike in prices. Minister Taras Vysotskyi previously emphasized that there are as yet no grounds to speak of a systemic shortage of basic products. Thus, the scale of destruction of physical infrastructure and the actual state of commodity supply on the market are assessed differently: high point losses of capacity do not automatically translate into a system-wide shortage and sharp price increase, but it is precisely this gap between the 'physical' and 'market' effect that determines the moderate, time-stretched nature of the impact on inflation. ### Context: the state of the logistics sector The combination of factors — the destruction of warehouse and distribution capacity, the rerouting of routes, and rising costs of storage and transportation — forms a sustained but not explosive price effect. By including it in the updated estimate, the NBU is effectively signaling that the inflation forecast for the end of 2026 may be revised upward by 0.4–0.6 p.p. above the baseline scenario, while the regulator maintains its emphasis on containing mechanisms — competition and weak demand. For consumers, this means a gradual rather than a sharp price increase for some goods in the autumn-winter period. ## 🔍 Fact-Check Verification - [NBU assessed how Russian strikes on logistics will affect prices in Ukraine](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/nbu-otsinili-k-udari-rf-logistitsi-vplinut-1788945644.html) - Первичный источник: колонка замглавы НБУ Лепушинского, оценка 0,4–0,6 п.п., ухудшение прогнозов, динамика 7,7%/7,2%, доля логистики 8%. - [The impact of Russian strikes on logistics on inflation in Ukraine](https://novosti.ua/economic/nbu-otsenil-vliyanie-rossiyskih-udarov-po-logistike-na-inflyatsiyu-v-2026-godu) - Корреспондирует с оценкой НБУ по вкладу в инфляцию на 2026 год. - [Strikes on warehouses have not gone unnoticed. The NBU explained exactly how prices will rise — what to ...](https://biz.nv.ua/finance/inflyaciya-v-2026-godu-nbu-uhudshil-prognoz-iz-za-atak-na-logistiku-i-razrusheniy-50639762.html) - Подтверждает ухудшение прогноза из-за атак на логистику и механизм растянутого во времени эффекта. - [Attacks on logistics may push up prices in Ukraine: NBU estimate](https://delo.ua/ru/news/ataki-na-logistiku-mogut-podtolknut-ceny-v-ukraine-ocenka-nbu-472107/) - Подтверждает оценку НБУ о возможном подтолкнутии цен атаками на логистику. ## ❓ FAQ ### Q: By how much, according to the NBU, will strikes on logistics increase annual inflation by the end of 2026? **A:** The regulator estimates the additional contribution of logistics restructuring and rising costs at 0.4–0.6 percentage points to annual inflation by the end of 2026. This effect was not included in the baseline scenario updated at the end of July. ### Q: Does the NBU expect a sharp spike in prices due to the destruction of warehouses? **A:** No. According to the Deputy Governor of the NBU, there is no talk of a sharp spike: the effect will be spread over time and is partially contained by the competitive environment and weak demand. Logistics and storage account for about 8% of the average consumer price, and due to competition, businesses will pass on to consumers only part of the additional costs. ### Q: What was the dynamics of consumer inflation in July and August 2026? **A:** In July, consumer inflation accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year after 7.2% in June. According to preliminary estimates, price growth continued in August and turned out to be somewhat above the NBU's July forecast trajectory.