---
title: "Stability against expectations: how the NBU keeps the hryvnia rate stable during the summer season"
description: "The NBU confidently maintains the hryvnia rate despite seasonal growth in demand for foreign currency. Experts estimate the imbalance at 10-15%, but consider the situation controlled thanks to the regulator's tools. The main risks remain external: oil prices and military activity. 💵📉"
date: 2026-07-25T04:32:00.000Z
lang: en
url: https://xab.info/en/posts/nbu-maintains-hryvnia-rate-in-july-and-august
tags: [nbu, ukraine, currency-market, taras-lesovoy, globus-bank]
publisher: "XAB.info"
---

# Stability against expectations: how the NBU keeps the hryvnia rate stable during the summer season

![Collage with euro and dollar symbols, stacks of hryvnias, charts, and currency exchange — illustrates the stability of the hryvnia rate under NBU management during the summer season](https://xab.info/media/2026/07/25/nbu-derzhit-kurs-grivny-v-iyule-i-avguste/nbu-derzhit-kurs-grivny-v-iyule-i-avguste-1.webp)

At the turn of July and August, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market is showing remarkable resilience. Despite seasonal fluctuations and external challenges, the exchange rate of the national currency remains under control. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) continues to confidently perform the role of the main "conductor," preventing sharp spikes and curbing imbalances in the market.

Experts note that the situation in the foreign exchange market remains predictable. Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank, emphasized in a comment to RBC-Ukraine that the regulator has a sufficient set of tools to maintain stability.

### The mathematics of supply and demand

According to preliminary estimates by specialists, during the current period, demand for foreign currency may exceed supply by approximately 10–15%. At first glance, such a gap seems significant; however, for the Ukrainian market, this is not a critical imbalance.

"The NBU has enough tools to compensate for such a difference and prevent sharp exchange rate spikes," explains the banker. This means that even when demand exceeds supply, the regulator is capable of intervening promptly to level the situation.

### Who is driving demand?

At the end of July and the beginning of August, a surge in activity from importers is traditionally observed. It is during this period that companies engaged in the import of energy carriers, industrial equipment, and raw materials are most actively buying foreign currency to settle accounts with foreign partners.

Despite this surge, the market does not feel critical pressure. The stable work of the regulator allows businesses to have access to the necessary currency without panic and speculation. Citizens are also not hoarding dollars and euros, which indicates that confidence in the national currency and the actions of the central bank is being maintained.

### Support factors and risks

The key pillars of exchange rate stability at the moment are international financial assistance and relatively stable consumer prices. These factors create a safety cushion, allowing the market to withstand external loads.

However, experts warn of existing risks. The main factors of uncertainty remain:

    - Global oil prices, which directly affect the cost of imports and inflation expectations;

    - Military activity, which can intensify inflationary pressure and cause volatility in the markets.

Thus, although the current situation looks controlled, the economic landscape remains complex, and attention to external factors must be constant.

*Attention: This material is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments involve risk, including the possibility of total loss of capital. RBC-Ukraine is not responsible for financial decisions made based on this information. Before making investment decisions, it is recommended to consult a licensed financial advisor.*