--- title: "NBU Worsens Forecast: Inflation in 2026 to Accelerate to 12.5% Amid Shelling and Fuel Price Hikes" description: "The National Bank of Ukraine has raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 12.5% year-on-year, attributing the revision to shelling, rising fuel prices, and fiscal stimuli." date: 2026-10-29T13:03:58.794Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/nbu-raises-2026-inflation-forecast-to-12-5 tags: [inflation, national-bank-of-ukraine, fuel-prices, monetary-policy, gdp] author: "Darya Fomina" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # NBU Worsens Forecast: Inflation in 2026 to Accelerate to 12.5% Amid Shelling and Fuel Price Hikes ![Wall clock on the historic facade of the National Bank of Ukraine in Kyiv with architectural details](https://xab.info/media/2026/10/29/nbu-povyisil-prognoz-inflyatsii-2026-do-12-5/nbu-povyisil-prognoz-inflyatsii-2026-do-12-5-1.webp) ## Key Points - The NBU raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 10% to 12.5% year-on-year. - Key drivers of inflation acceleration include shelling (0.7 pp contribution), rising fuel prices, and fiscal stimuli. - The regulator raised the policy rate by 0.5 pp to 16.5% and forecasts a 0.4% GDP contraction in 2026. - The target inflation benchmark is 5%, expected to be reached by 2028. - In September, inflation stood at 10% y/y (+2.1 pp vs August); on October 29, A-95 gasoline cost UAH 88.9–95.9/l, auto gas nearly UAH 60/l. The National Bank of Ukraine has raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 12.5% year-on-year. This was announced by Regulator Head Andriy Pyshnyy during a monetary briefing on October 29, noting that the previous estimate, recorded as of July of this year, stood at 10%. Thus, the central bank has significantly revised its expectations regarding price dynamics, acknowledging that pressure on consumer prices has turned out to be stronger than previously assumed. ### What Caused the Forecast Revision According to the NBU head, the main factors driving inflation acceleration were enemy shelling, rising fuel prices, and fiscal stimuli — state economic support programs. The regulator estimated the contribution of shelling to inflation acceleration at 0.7 percentage points. Pyshnyy added that further price growth is expected to be contained by a projected decline in global oil prices, as well as monetary policy measures that the regulator continues to implement. ### Link to the Policy Rate and GDP Forecast The revision of the inflation forecast comes against the backdrop of monetary policy tightening: the NBU has once again raised its policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 16.5%. Simultaneously, the regulator worsened its macroeconomic forecast: instead of the previously expected GDP growth in 2026, a contraction of 0.4% is now projected, while a return to 0.4% growth is expected only in 2027. According to NBU estimates, in the third quarter real GDP contracted by 0.5% year-on-year, which the regulator attributes primarily to the consequences of maritime port blockades and attacks on production facilities and logistics; metallurgical and ore enterprises suffered the greatest losses, and the negative contribution of intensified shelling to GDP is estimated at 1.9 percentage points. ### Target Benchmark and Stabilization Horizon The baseline indicator targeted by the regulator remains 5% per annum. Achieving this target inflation level, according to Andriy Pyshnyy, is expected in 2028. Thus, the NBU bakes a phased slowdown in price growth into its forecast: following a peak value of 12.5% in 2026, inflation should gradually decline toward the target benchmark over the next two years. ### September Price Dynamics and the Situation at Filling Stations The context of the forecast revision is also confirmed by statistics: in September, inflation reached 10% year-on-year, which is 2.1 percentage points higher than the August figure, the State Statistics Service reported. Educational services, clothing and footwear, and food products experienced the highest price increases over the month. At the same time, fuel prices at filling stations continue to rise: as of October 29, standard A-95 gasoline in Ukraine's largest networks cost UAH 88.9–95.9 per liter, standard diesel fuel cost UAH 102.9–108, and the price of auto gas jumped to nearly 60 hryvnias, with OKKO network prices rising to UAH 59.9 per liter. ## Fact-Check & Sources - [НБУ ухудшил прогноз инфляции на 2026 год: на цены давят последствия обстрелов и горючее](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/nbu-pogirshiv-prognoz-inflyatsiyi-2026-rik-1793278258.html) - Primary source: inflation forecast raised to 12.5%, factors (shelling 0.7 pp, fuel, fiscal stimuli), target benchmark 5% by 2028, fuel prices as of Oct 29. - [НБУ ухудшил макропрогноз: в 2026 г. ВВП упадет на 0,4% при инфляции 12,5%, в 2027 г. вырастет на 0,4% при ...](https://ru.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1228087.html) - Confirms 12.5% inflation, 0.4% GDP drop in 2026, 0.5% y/y GDP drop in Q3, shelling contribution to GDP at 1.9 pp. - [НБУ снова повысил ставку и прогнозирует рецессию по итогам 2026 года](https://forbes.ua/ru/news/nbu-znovu-pidvishhiv-stavku-i-prognozuje-recesiiu-za-pidsumkami-2026-roku-29102026-43349) - Confirms rate hike by 0.5 pp, 2026 GDP drop forecast of 0.4%, Middle East war context and rising energy prices. - [НБУ повысил учетную ставку на 0,5 процентных пункта до 16,5%](https://ukranews.com/news/1184167-nbu-povysil-uchetnuyu-stavku-na-0-5-protsentnyh-punkta-do-16-5) - Confirms policy rate level at 16.5% following a 0.5 pp increase. ## FAQ ### What is the NBU's current inflation forecast for 2026? The National Bank of Ukraine has raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 12.5% year-on-year, whereas the July estimate was 10%. ### What led to the acceleration of inflation? According to NBU Head Andriy Pyshnyy, the main factors were enemy shelling (a 0.7 percentage point contribution), rising fuel prices, and fiscal stimuli — state economic support programs. ### When does the NBU expect to reach the target inflation level? The regulator's target benchmark is 5% per annum, and it is expected to be achieved in 2028. ### What is the current NBU policy rate? The NBU has increased its policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 16.5%.