--- title: "NBU Worsens Inflation Forecast to 12.5%: Fuel and Destroyed Logistics Drive Up Prices" description: "The National Bank of Ukraine has worsened its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 12.5% due to rising fuel prices and the destruction of warehouse logistics. The regulator expects to return to the target 5% only by the end of 2028." date: 2026-11-06T12:39:24.447Z lang: en url: https://xab.info/en/posts/nbu-worsens-inflation-forecast-to-12-5 tags: [inflation, nbu, ukraine-economy, prices, fuel, logistics] author: "Darya Fomina" publisher: "XAB.info" --- # NBU Worsens Inflation Forecast to 12.5%: Fuel and Destroyed Logistics Drive Up Prices ![Shopper with a grocery list selects items in a supermarket](https://xab.info/media/2026/11/06/nbu-uhudshil-prognoz-inflyatsii-do-12-5/nbu-uhudshil-prognoz-inflyatsii-do-12-5-1.webp) ## Key Points - The NBU raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 12.5% (from 10% in the July forecast); in September, inflation accelerated to 10% year-on-year. - The main reasons are the rising cost of fuel (especially diesel) and the destruction of about a third of warehouse space in Kyiv and the region, which raised logistics costs. - The NBU downgraded its real GDP forecast from 1.8% growth to a 0.4% contraction; Russian shelling, according to the regulator, adds about 0.7 percentage points to inflation. - A slowdown in inflation is expected starting in 2027 (to 7.3%), and the 5% target—only by the end of 2028. The National Bank of Ukraine has raised its inflation expectations for the end of 2026 to 12.5%, according to the regulator's October Inflation Report, cited by RBC-Ukraine. In the third quarter, consumer price growth accelerated markedly: while inflation stood at 7.2% year-on-year in June, it reached 10% by September, significantly higher than the NBU's July forecast. According to the regulator's estimates, price growth continued in October, and core inflation stood at 8.8% in September. At the same time, the NBU downgraded its assessment of real GDP dynamics from a previously expected growth of 1.8% to a contraction of 0.4%, and according to the regulator's calculations, the consequences of Russian shelling alone will add about 0.7 percentage points to annual inflation. ### Fuel: The Main Price Driver Among the key reasons for revising the forecast, the National Bank cites the rising cost of fuel amid a new surge in global oil prices. Diesel fuel has risen in price the most: global supplies have decreased due to supply disruptions from the Middle East, and reserves in Europe remain low. Additional pressure came from seasonal demand in August-September, when the harvest begins and cargo transportation increases. The NBU warns that rising fuel prices will gradually spill over into the prices of other goods and services, so price pressure will remain significant in the coming months. ### Warehouse Destruction Hits Cost of Production The second major factor was problems with food storage and delivery. According to NBU estimates, as a result of Russian attacks, about a third of warehouse space in Kyiv and the Kyiv region was destroyed within a few months. The loss of distribution centers forced producers to deliver products directly to stores more often, which increased transport, personnel, and supply organization costs. A telling example is eggs: in June-August they became cheaper by 19-26%, and in September they rose in price by 12.2% year-on-year; requirements from retail chains for direct deliveries could have raised the cost of production of eggs by 10-15%. ### Services and Housing: Where Prices are Growing Fastest Among services, education experienced the sharpest price increase: in September, prices in this category grew by 19.6% year-on-year following wage increases in the sector. The growth of housing rent also accelerated—from 10.2% in June to 13.7% in September. The NBU links this, in particular, to the fact that due to Russian attacks, more people are moving internally, and the demand for rental housing has increased in safer regions. ### Prospects: Slowdown from 2027 and 5% Target by 2028 According to the regulator's expectations, starting from the first quarter of 2027, inflation will gradually slow down—to 7.3% by the end of the year, and it will only reach the 5% target by the end of 2028. This is expected to be facilitated by the exhaustion of secondary effects from rising fuel prices, slower wage growth, lower global oil prices, and the maintenance of monetary policy measures, including the NBU's decision on the discount rate. At the same time, the negative impact of destruction on economic activity and prices, according to the National Bank, will also be felt in 2027. ### What This Means for Your Wallet Experts see the greatest risks of price increases until the end of the year for eggs, dairy products, bread, and greenhouse vegetables; bread could rise in price by another 10%. A comparison of prices for basic products in ATB, Silpo, Novus, and Auchan chains as of November 5 showed that cheap buckwheat (54.99 UAH/kg on promotion) was found in Silpo, and the most affordable dozen eggs in Novus for 58.99 UAH. ## Fact-Check & Sources - [НБУ ухудшил прогноз инфляции на 2026 год](https://www.rbc.ua/ukr/news/nbu-pogirshiv-prognoz-inflyatsiyi-2026-rik-1793968255.html) - Primary source: 12.5% forecast, acceleration from 7.2% (June) to 10% (September), causes — fuel and warehouse destruction, examples of eggs, education, rent, 5% forecast by the end of 2028. - [НБУ ухудшил прогноз инфляции на 2026 год: насколько вырастут цены](https://zn.ua/ECONOMICS/nbu-ukhudshil-prohnoz-infljatsii-na-2026-hod-naskolko-vyrastut-tseny.html) - Confirms 12.5% for 2026, 7.3% for 2027, 5% for 2028; shelling adds ~0.7 percentage points to inflation. - [Цены будут расти быстрее, а экономика сократится: НБУ резко ухудшил прогноз на 2026 год](https://minfin.com.ua/2026/10/29/184511422/) - Confirms 12.5%, core inflation of 8.8% in September, GDP deterioration from +1.8% to -0.4%, ~0.7 percentage points from shelling. - [Российские атаки разгоняют инфляцию: НБУ резко ухудшил прогноз и повысил учетную ставку](https://tsn.ua/ru/groshi/rossiyskie-ataki-razgonyayut-inflyatsiyu-nbu-rezko-uhudshil-prognoz-i-povysil-uchetnuyu-stavku-3203075.html) - Confirms the deterioration of the forecast and the increase in the discount rate amid price pressure. ## FAQ ### What inflation forecast for 2026 did the NBU give? The National Bank raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 12.5% (10% was expected in July). In September, inflation accelerated to 10% year-on-year. ### Why did the NBU worsen the forecast? The regulator cites the rising cost of fuel (especially diesel) and the destruction of warehouse and logistics infrastructure as a result of Russian attacks, which increased transport and production costs. ### When will inflation return to the target 5%? According to the NBU forecast, the slowdown will begin in 2027 (to 7.3%), and the 5% target level will be reached only by the end of 2028.